tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-72829845194675800722024-02-20T21:52:08.283+08:00BACAJELAANYTHINGS IN THE WORLDUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger577125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7282984519467580072.post-6962939102987750112023-03-11T09:27:00.000+08:002023-03-11T09:27:03.468+08:00Thailand Competitiveness by Professor Michael E. Porter<p> Please see attached file:</p><p><br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgdACCDngGFEDXLfmg77GKt1cW5By8_C7u4oV5aA01XlssVbMAouUm-VkpDDbNGmeF10rOcx3toni9QhybZihSI2spejWvtxPttf4AeCxZGMA1xXfJmfKF_fNQcJ2ucJtJIBlS5zki-b_arQrXNgbr23nlmygRWNGu0cTzKMMr0qN70348P20eostMP" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="379" data-original-width="558" height="217" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgdACCDngGFEDXLfmg77GKt1cW5By8_C7u4oV5aA01XlssVbMAouUm-VkpDDbNGmeF10rOcx3toni9QhybZihSI2spejWvtxPttf4AeCxZGMA1xXfJmfKF_fNQcJ2ucJtJIBlS5zki-b_arQrXNgbr23nlmygRWNGu0cTzKMMr0qN70348P20eostMP" width="320" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><p><a href="http://www.bus.tu.ac.th/usr/wai/xm622/potter/Michael%20Porter%20Live%20in%20Thailand%20-part%202.pdf">http://www.bus.tu.ac.th/usr/wai/xm622/potter/Michael%20Porter%20Live%20in%20Thailand%20-part%202.pdf</a><br /></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7282984519467580072.post-40111769940021946162023-03-11T09:13:00.004+08:002023-03-11T09:13:54.257+08:00Tackling the Underwater Threat: How Ukraine Can Combat Russian Submarines<p> <span style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", Garamond, Georgia, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;">Dr Sidharth Kaushal and </span><span style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", Garamond, Georgia, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 0px;">Dr Kevin Rowland </span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", Garamond, Georgia, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-weight: bold;">7 March 2023 </span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", Garamond, Georgia, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", Garamond, Georgia, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", Garamond, Georgia, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-weight: bold;"> </span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNNC5pidZ9y6qSdkyQ_v0UfAXmGBGTDlrEqMovBTgcEI8UW1Kzm_igNMUXM7kmCrgRFiwkyIBN4sqiJauBKusV8SbLWgampe1BXuuVu43t-O8ifEdYGaCVLRe3JRgINIJ1l6jurNbKj6PL24tsj0zULwJb9WaTHzPgid4n-N3hf-Bfgjv-Pc-2k95k/s1168/kilo-submarine-1168x440px.webp" imageanchor="1" style="background-color: white; display: inline !important; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", Garamond, Georgia, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-weight: bold; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="440" data-original-width="1168" height="121" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNNC5pidZ9y6qSdkyQ_v0UfAXmGBGTDlrEqMovBTgcEI8UW1Kzm_igNMUXM7kmCrgRFiwkyIBN4sqiJauBKusV8SbLWgampe1BXuuVu43t-O8ifEdYGaCVLRe3JRgINIJ1l6jurNbKj6PL24tsj0zULwJb9WaTHzPgid4n-N3hf-Bfgjv-Pc-2k95k/s320/kilo-submarine-1168x440px.webp" width="320" /></a></p><p><br /></p><p class="LeadParagraph-module--component--43212" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Serif Pro", Helvetica, Arial, serif; font-size: calc(var(--t-h3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); font-weight: 700; line-height: calc(var(--l-h3, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-4, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Given that building anti-submarine warfare capabilities along Western lines would require significant time and resources, how can Ukraine best counter the Russian submarine threat?</p><p class="LeadParagraph-module--component--43212" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Serif Pro", Helvetica, Arial, serif; font-size: calc(var(--t-h3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); font-weight: 700; line-height: calc(var(--l-h3, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-4, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></p><div class="Article-module--paragraphs--488a8" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Serif Pro", Helvetica, Arial, serif; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-5, 40)/var(--t)*1rem);"><div class="TextParagraph-module--component--f8492" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-5, 40)/var(--t)*1rem);"><div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">One of the signal successes of the Ukrainian armed forces has been denying the Russian Black Sea <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/15/sinking-moskva-what-we-know-russia-ship-sunk-missile-ukraine" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(42, 115, 144); box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; font-size: calc(var(--t-body-small, 18)/var(--t)*1rem); font-weight: 700; line-height: calc(var(--l-body-small, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); text-decoration-line: none;">Fleet’s</a> surface vessels the ability to operate in close proximity to Ukrainian shores. The successful attack on the fleet’s flagship, the <em style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box;">Moskva</em>, with indigenous Neptune anti-ship cruise missiles and the subsequent Russian defeat at Snake Island denied the fleet the air cover it needs to be able to operate in range of an increasingly credible Ukrainian anti-ship missile threat. As such, it may prove increasingly difficult for Russia to enforce a renewed surface blockade of Ukraine if it decides that inflicting economic harm is important – a likely assumption if the war of attrition continues over the longer term.</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">That being said, Russia does have other options with which to menace Ukraine’s maritime economy. The risk posed by naval mines represents one vector; another is the use of submarines, which have not featured significantly in the conflict thus far. The Black Sea Fleet’s force of four Project 636 (<em style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box;">Kilo</em>) and Project 877 (Improved <em style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box;">Kilo</em>) submarines have not been used in a blockading role to date, acting primarily as a launch platform for 3M-14 Kalibr cruise missiles. However, if Russia did decide to use them in this capacity, it would raise new challenges for Ukraine’s sea denial strategy, which thus far has had to contend primarily with the (comparatively) easy task of anti-surface warfare. The skills and capabilities needed for Ukraine to conduct anti-submarine warfare (ASW) along Western lines would be time-consuming and expensive to generate, and are unlikely to be acquired in the foreseeable future, begging the question of how to ‘do’ ASW on a shoestring.</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></p><h2 style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", Garamond, Georgia, sans-serif; font-size: calc(var(--t-h2, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-h2, 40)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-4, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">The Relevance of the Black Sea Fleet’s Kilo-Class Submarines</h2><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">In the immediate term, and for good reason, Ukraine’s priorities are likely to remain primarily land-focused. However, should the conflict reach a point of enduring, frozen stalemate, Russia may shift its military focus to wearing down the Ukrainian economy, which has already seen a 30% <a href="https://www.agenzianova.com/en/news/Ukraine%27s-GDP-fell-by-more-than-30-percent-in-2022/" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(42, 115, 144); box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; font-size: calc(var(--t-body-small, 18)/var(--t)*1rem); font-weight: 700; line-height: calc(var(--l-body-small, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); text-decoration-line: none;">reduction</a> in GDP. To an extent, this has been visible in the air and missile <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukraine-coming-electricity-crisis-protect-grid-from-russian-attacks" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(42, 115, 144); box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; font-size: calc(var(--t-body-small, 18)/var(--t)*1rem); font-weight: 700; line-height: calc(var(--l-body-small, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); text-decoration-line: none;">campaign</a> witnessed over the winter. Moreover, it would follow a pattern of how belligerents attempt to secure a strategic breakthrough when a tactical battlefield breakthrough seems unlikely – with precedents such as the Iran–Iraq tanker war and the British blockade of Germany during the First World War.</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">To an extent, one might argue that Moscow does not need military force to inflict a de facto blockade – simply declaring that it has pulled out of the grain deal, for example, would likely cause insurance rates to spike to exorbitant levels. However, two alternative scenarios might be considered.</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin: 0px;">First, Moscow may wish to drive a spike in insurance costs without paying the diplomatic price for pulling out of the grain deal. A deniable attack could be facilitated by the <em style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box;">Kilo</em>-class submarines. The boats can clandestinely lay <a href="https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/iran/kilo.htm#:~:text=1%2C000%20naval%20mines%20capable%20of,otherwise%20stowed%20aboard%20the%20vessel." style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(42, 115, 144); box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; font-size: calc(var(--t-body-small, 18)/var(--t)*1rem); font-weight: 700; line-height: calc(var(--l-body-small, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); text-decoration-line: none;">up to 24 naval mines</a> each during a single sortie. A direct torpedo attack would be more audacious, but it is worth recalling the time it took to <a href="https://www.naval-technology.com/features/feature90570/" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(42, 115, 144); box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; font-size: calc(var(--t-body-small, 18)/var(--t)*1rem); font-weight: 700; line-height: calc(var(--l-body-small, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); text-decoration-line: none;">attribute</a> North Korea’s sinking of the South Korean vessel <em style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box;">Cheonan</em> in 2010 – four months – by which time the initial international outrage had abated. Attacking a vessel carrying a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02361-x" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(42, 115, 144); box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; font-size: calc(var(--t-body-small, 18)/var(--t)*1rem); font-weight: 700; line-height: calc(var(--l-body-small, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); text-decoration-line: none;">volatile</a> substance such as ammonium nitrite might offer a level of deniability which, however implausible, could preclude unambiguous attribution. To consider the impact of such action, we might consider that in 2019, insurance rates in the Strait of Hormuz <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/09/oil-insurance-rates-have-soared-since-tanker-attacks-near-iran.html" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(42, 115, 144); box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; font-size: calc(var(--t-body-small, 18)/var(--t)*1rem); font-weight: 700; line-height: calc(var(--l-body-small, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); text-decoration-line: none;">rose</a> tenfold after Iran’s limpet mine attacks – even though a convoy system was put in place.</p></div></div><div class="PullQuoteParagraph-module--component--11527 PullQuoteParagraph-module--normal--d8f73" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(225, 225, 225); border-top: 1px solid rgb(225, 225, 225); box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-5, 40)/var(--t)*1rem); padding-bottom: calc(var(--r-4, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); padding-left: 0px; padding-right: calc(var(--r-9, 72)/var(--t)*1rem); padding-top: calc(var(--r-5, 40)/var(--t)*1rem);"><div class="PullQuoteParagraph-module--contentWrapper--9549e" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex;"><i class="IconSprite-module--component--7dcea PullQuoteParagraph-module--icon--be827" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; color: #410a48; display: flex; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: calc(32/var(--t)*1rem); margin-top: 0px; overflow: visible;"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><use xlink:href="#icon-quote"></use></svg></i><blockquote class="PullQuoteParagraph-module--content--55930" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; color: #410a48; font-size: calc(var(--t-quote, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); font-weight: 700; line-height: calc(var(--l-quote, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-7, 56)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding: 0px;"><br /></blockquote></div><div class="PullQuoteParagraph-module--credit--45850" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; align-items: center; box-sizing: border-box; color: #43453d; display: flex; margin-left: calc(64/var(--t)*1rem); padding: 0px;"><div class="PullQuoteParagraph-module--creditText--65582" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-direction: column;"><p class="PullQuoteParagraph-module--creditName--4efc2" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", Garamond, Georgia, sans-serif; font-size: calc(18/var(--t)*1rem); font-weight: 700; line-height: calc(32/var(--t)*1rem); margin: 0px;"></p></div></div></div><div class="TextParagraph-module--component--f8492" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-5, 40)/var(--t)*1rem);"><div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Second, the Black Sea Fleet’s submarines are an important launch platform for Russian cruise missiles such as the 3M-14 Kalibr, which – according to some experts – came <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukraine-coming-electricity-crisis-protect-grid-from-russian-attacks" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(42, 115, 144); box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; font-size: calc(var(--t-body-small, 18)/var(--t)*1rem); font-weight: 700; line-height: calc(var(--l-body-small, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); text-decoration-line: none;">close</a> to delivering a death blow to Ukraine’s energy grid this winter. Any effort to maintain Ukraine’s viability in the long term will depend on the ability of its economy to at least partially recover from the impact of war, and open sea lines of communication will be crucial. The Black Sea Fleet’s submarines thus represent a clear and present challenge which the Ukrainian navy will need to resolve.</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></p><h2 style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", Garamond, Georgia, sans-serif; font-size: calc(var(--t-h2, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-h2, 40)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-4, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">The Challenge of ASW</h2><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">There are, however, be a number of issues that will preclude any effort to transpose a Western approach to ASW to Ukraine in the medium term. First, the platforms involved are too expensive and small in number to be gifted. Assets such as the P-8 maritime patrol aircraft or specialist ASW frigates are unlikely to be transferred, and the Ukrainian armed forces would struggle to crew, operate and protect them in any case.</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">ASW is an inherently skill-intensive task. Training an aviator on a Royal Navy Merlin helicopter, for example, takes at least <a href="https://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/~/media/Files/CNR-PDFs/Military%20Aviation%20Studies.pdf" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(42, 115, 144); box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; font-size: calc(var(--t-body-small, 18)/var(--t)*1rem); font-weight: 700; line-height: calc(var(--l-body-small, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); text-decoration-line: none;">11 months</a> before they can be integrated into frontline squadrons, and training pipelines everywhere are well known to be at capacity already. Training times for sonar operators are similarly long. Moreover, this excludes the challenge of integrating personnel into coherent units that can operate in tandem with one another. Though the Ukrainian navy <a href="https://www.navyrecognition.com/index.php/naval-news/naval-news-archive/2022/march/11526-list-of-ukrainian-navy-ships-would-have-been-destroyed-or-captured-by-russian-armed-forces.html" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(42, 115, 144); box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; font-size: calc(var(--t-body-small, 18)/var(--t)*1rem); font-weight: 700; line-height: calc(var(--l-body-small, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); text-decoration-line: none;">had</a> 11,000 personnel in its service when the war began, the fact that it had lost much of its fleet after 2014 – as well as an understandable focus on events on land – raises questions about the speed at which necessary competencies can be built, or rebuilt, within the force.</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Finally, the maintenance of the platforms needed to operate an ASW barrier along Western lines would strain capacity at Ukrainian facilities, particularly if they remain under bombardment.</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">As such, a solution to the challenge of ASW – at least in the near term – needs to be developed along fundamentally different lines from traditional, Western approaches.</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></p><h2 style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", Garamond, Georgia, sans-serif; font-size: calc(var(--t-h2, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-h2, 40)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-4, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Begin with the End State, Not the Platform</h2><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin: 0px;">There could, however, be relatively cost-effective solutions to the challenges that Ukraine faces. These could be built on the principle that harassment, rather than sea denial, should be the immediate Ukrainian goal. It is not necessary to destroy Russia’s submarines if they can be prevented from doing operationally useful work.</p></div></div><div class="PullQuoteParagraph-module--component--11527 PullQuoteParagraph-module--normal--d8f73" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(225, 225, 225); border-top: 1px solid rgb(225, 225, 225); box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-5, 40)/var(--t)*1rem); padding-bottom: calc(var(--r-4, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); padding-left: 0px; padding-right: calc(var(--r-9, 72)/var(--t)*1rem); padding-top: calc(var(--r-5, 40)/var(--t)*1rem);"><div class="PullQuoteParagraph-module--contentWrapper--9549e" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex;"><i class="IconSprite-module--component--7dcea PullQuoteParagraph-module--icon--be827" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; color: #410a48; display: flex; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: calc(32/var(--t)*1rem); margin-top: 0px; overflow: visible;"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><use xlink:href="#icon-quote"></use></svg></i><blockquote class="PullQuoteParagraph-module--content--55930" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; color: #410a48; font-size: calc(var(--t-quote, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); font-weight: 700; line-height: calc(var(--l-quote, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-7, 56)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding: 0px;"><br /></blockquote></div><div class="PullQuoteParagraph-module--credit--45850" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; align-items: center; box-sizing: border-box; color: #43453d; display: flex; margin-left: calc(64/var(--t)*1rem); padding: 0px;"><div class="PullQuoteParagraph-module--creditText--65582" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-direction: column;"><p class="PullQuoteParagraph-module--creditName--4efc2" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", Garamond, Georgia, sans-serif; font-size: calc(18/var(--t)*1rem); font-weight: 700; line-height: calc(32/var(--t)*1rem); margin: 0px;"></p></div></div></div><div class="TextParagraph-module--component--f8492" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-5, 40)/var(--t)*1rem);"><div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">As a working hypothesis, it is reasonable to assume that Russian sabotage or interdiction of shipping to Ukraine is likely to occur within or close to Ukraine’s exclusive economic zone in the northern Black Sea, both to signal intent and because damaging vessels in a warzone is likely to be less contentious to the international community than sinking them well within international waters. If this is the case, the geography of the northern Black Sea offers partial solutions. The <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2411-5134/7/1/21" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(42, 115, 144); box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; font-size: calc(var(--t-body-small, 18)/var(--t)*1rem); font-weight: 700; line-height: calc(var(--l-body-small, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); text-decoration-line: none;">average</a> depth of the area – 200 metres – is less than the 240-metre depth at which the <em style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box;">Kilo</em> generally operates, meaning that navigation and operation will be more difficult for submarines. This is not to say that it is impossible, and some parts exceed the average depth. However, submarines operating in the northern Black Sea do so at increased risk of collision, grounding and detection. The passage of submarines can be made even more risky by seeding the areas within which they can operate with remotely activated mines such as the US <a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a34451548/navys-new-hammerhead-mine/" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(42, 115, 144); box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; font-size: calc(var(--t-body-small, 18)/var(--t)*1rem); font-weight: 700; line-height: calc(var(--l-body-small, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); text-decoration-line: none;">Hammerhead</a>. Because these mines can be remotely activated, they are compatible with international law, and the fact that they can be programmed to seek specific magnetic anomalies aids against target misidentification. This would force the <em style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box;">Kilos</em> to operate in even shallower waters, increasing their risk even further.</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Beyond canalising submarines through mines, Ukraine could use uncrewed capabilities to harass them further. For example, UAVs operating dipping sonobuoys and lightweight torpedoes <a href="https://s3.amazonaws.com/media.hudson.org/Clark%20Cropsey%20Walton_Sustaining%20the%20Undersea%20Advantage.pdf" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(42, 115, 144); box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; font-size: calc(var(--t-body-small, 18)/var(--t)*1rem); font-weight: 700; line-height: calc(var(--l-body-small, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); text-decoration-line: none;">could be utilised</a> in an ASW role – an avenue that multiple navies are pursuing, albeit experimentally. While accurate detection by a UAV thus equipped may not be certain, a responsible submarine commander would have to take evasive action if he or she detected a pinging sonar, potentially disrupting firing solutions, affecting the vessel’s endurance, or even putting it in navigational danger. The perception that a UAV is armed and primed to attack could be exacerbated if some UAVs were equipped with munitions while many more were equipped with decoys that simulated the acoustic profile of an attack. We might think of the impact that the US Navy’s Julie Jezebel sonobuoys – which <a href="https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/document/29079-document-2-excerpt-report-undated-circa-december-1962-prepared-ussr-northern-fleet" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(42, 115, 144); box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; font-size: calc(var(--t-body-small, 18)/var(--t)*1rem); font-weight: 700; line-height: calc(var(--l-body-small, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); text-decoration-line: none;">simulated</a> the noise profile of a depth charge – had on Soviet submariners during the Cuban missile crisis.</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Russian submariners’ perceptions of operational risks could also be compounded if Ukraine were to take possession of even a very limited number of ASW helicopters. Finally, the presence of NATO or other intelligence gathering aircraft, including P-8s, over the Black Sea would force Russian commanders to consider the possibility that Ukrainian assets were being cued, which – whether true or not – could be reinforced by conducting UAV flights at times at which the aircraft are present. Ultimately, all of these actions would raise the perceived risk for Russian operators and slow the rate and tempo of their activity.</p><h2 style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", Garamond, Georgia, sans-serif; font-size: calc(var(--t-h2, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-h2, 40)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-4, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></h2><h2 style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", Garamond, Georgia, sans-serif; font-size: calc(var(--t-h2, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-h2, 40)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-4, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Conclusions</h2><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">There are no perfect immediate-term solutions to the submarine challenge. In the long term, after the war’s conclusion, Ukraine might well consider meeting the goals set out in its <a href="https://navy.mil.gov.ua/en/strategiya-vijskovo-morskyh-syl-zbrojnyh-syl-ukrayiny-2035/" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(42, 115, 144); box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; font-size: calc(var(--t-body-small, 18)/var(--t)*1rem); font-weight: 700; line-height: calc(var(--l-body-small, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); text-decoration-line: none;">2019 naval strategy</a>, including rebuilding a surface fleet capable of limited sea control in peacetime, as well as prosecuting ASW missions near its shores and other sea denial missions. In the meantime, while the ideal of denying areas to Russian submarines is unlikely to be achieved, Ukraine can impose upon the <em style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box;">Kilos</em> and their operators a set of conditions which – though they may not end the submarine threat – will strain both vessels and crews. The immediate goal guiding Ukrainian ASW, then, should be harassment.</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><em style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box;">The views expressed in this Commentary are the authors’, and do not represent those of RUSI or any other institution.</em></p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><em style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></em></p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><em style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box;">Read more <a href="https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/tackling-underwater-threat-how-ukraine-can-combat-russian-submarines" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p></div></div></div><div class="ArticleMeta-module--flex--2ed37" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-direction: row; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", Garamond, Georgia, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><b aria-label="published date" class="ArticleMeta-module--date--fc0bd" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-right: calc(32/var(--t)*1rem); margin-top: 0px;"><br /></b><b aria-label="published date" class="ArticleMeta-module--date--fc0bd" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-right: calc(32/var(--t)*1rem); margin-top: 0px;"><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /></b><br /><b aria-label="published date" class="ArticleMeta-module--date--fc0bd" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-right: calc(32/var(--t)*1rem); margin-top: 0px;"><br /></b><b aria-label="published date" class="ArticleMeta-module--date--fc0bd" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-right: calc(32/var(--t)*1rem); margin-top: 0px;"><br /></b><b aria-label="published date" class="ArticleMeta-module--date--fc0bd" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-right: calc(32/var(--t)*1rem); margin-top: 0px;"><br /></b><b aria-label="published date" class="ArticleMeta-module--date--fc0bd" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-right: calc(32/var(--t)*1rem); margin-top: 0px;"><br /></b><b aria-label="published date" class="ArticleMeta-module--date--fc0bd" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-right: calc(32/var(--t)*1rem); margin-top: 0px;"><br /></b><b aria-label="published date" class="ArticleMeta-module--date--fc0bd" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-right: calc(32/var(--t)*1rem); margin-top: 0px;"><br /></b><b aria-label="published date" class="ArticleMeta-module--date--fc0bd" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-right: calc(32/var(--t)*1rem); margin-top: 0px;"><br /></b></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7282984519467580072.post-71456532893481798092022-12-10T13:01:00.001+08:002022-12-10T13:01:10.113+08:00Lessons Learnt from Recent Court Decisions on Transfer Pricing Cases <p> <em style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #121416; font-family: Lora; font-size: 16px;">By Kishenjeet Dhillon</em></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #121416; font-family: Lora; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">There have been a series of breathtaking developments in the country’s transfer pricing sphere lately. Since the start of the year 2021, the government has made changes to the transfer pricing legislation such as the introduction of the Section 113B (penalty for a failure to furnish transfer pricing documentation on a timely basis) and Section 140A(3A) (surcharge of up to 5% on transfer pricing adjustments). Most recently, the Inland Revenue Board (IRB) has expanded the transfer pricing disclosure section in the income tax return form (i.e., Form C) in requiring companies engaged in controlled transactions to declare their functional profile in the Form C. The slew of new measures significantly tightened the transfer pricing regime within Malaysia. </p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #121416; font-family: Lora; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Amidst the backdrop of these changes, transfer pricing centric litigation is increasing in number as we march into the 15th anniversary since the introduction of Section 140A in 2009. The frequency of litigation is signaling that transfer pricing disputes are becoming more significant. What can be observed is that a transparency gap exists between the IRB’s expectations, the rules and regulations as they currently stand, and the ongoing practice by tax practitioners as well as taxpayers. It is through the courts’ interpretation of transfer pricing legislation that we develop a more matured transfer pricing regime. Whilst we discuss the legal implications of the recent cases, which have been largely decided in favour of the taxpayers, it is perhaps time to take stock of these latest decisions made by the courts and analyse them through practical lens. </p><h4 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; counter-reset: h5 0; font-family: Montserrat; font-size: 1.5rem; letter-spacing: -0.025em; line-height: 1; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word;">High Court decisions on Sandakan Edible Oils Sdn Bhd’s case and Procter & Gamble Malaysia Sdn Bhd’s case </h4><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #121416; font-family: Lora; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">The two most recent cases that have been widely discussed are: </p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #121416; font-family: Lora; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;">• <span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bolder;">SEO case: </span><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Ketua Pengarah Dalam Negeri v Sandakan Edible Oils Sdn Bhd </em>decided at the High Court (unpublished) (or <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">SEO Sdn Bhd v Ketua Pengarah Hasil Dalam Negeri (2021) MSTC 10-129 ); </em>and </li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;">• <span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bolder;">PGM case: </span><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Ketua Pengarah Hasil Dalam Negeri v Procter & Gamble (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd (2022) MLJU 743</em>. </li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #121416; font-family: Lora; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">At the Special Commissioners of Income Tax (“SCIT”) level in the SEO case, the SCIT held that the IRB had failed to support its decision to utilize the median point of a benchmarking analysis, done at the request of the IRB, as a basis for adjustment. The taxpayer had proved that the additional assessments imposed by the IRB were exaggerated or wrong, and such a decision was reaffirmed by the High Court on 17 May 2022. </p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #121416; font-family: Lora; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">As for the PGM case, the taxpayer had defended the appeal filed by the IRB at the High Court which reaffirmed the decision made by the SCIT in a previous judgement. It was made clear in the judgement issued that the taxpayer did not attempt to evade or avoid tax, had sought professional advice concerning its transfer pricing policy and tax matters, and that the main issue of contention was a technical disagreement regarding transfer pricing policy. </p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #121416; font-family: Lora; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">The above cases are regarded as being instrumental to the conversation surrounding transfer pricing and contribute significantly to the ongoing development of the transfer pricing regime within the Malaysian context. The two cases had taken place under unique circumstances but share common outcomes which may serve as the foundation for how taxpayers can assess their own levels of transfer pricing compliance. In addition, both the SEO case and PGM case reaffirm long held positions among tax practitioners that are often challenged by the IRB during the transfer pricing audit phase. </p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #121416; font-family: Lora; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bolder;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Practical considerations and lessons learnt </em></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #121416; font-family: Lora; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Given the above developments, taxpayers can take note of the following practical considerations and lessons learnt in evaluating their current transfer pricing matters and level of compliance. This will enable taxpayers to build a robust defence against any potential transfer pricing dispute that may take place post-audit. </p><h4 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; counter-reset: h5 0; font-family: Montserrat; font-size: 1.5rem; letter-spacing: -0.025em; line-height: 1; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word;">1. The importance of an appropriate benchmarking analysis </h4><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #121416; font-family: Lora; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">The first obvious starting point is that of the preparation of an appropriate transfer pricing analysis. The topic of benchmarking analysis and the application of the Transactional Net Margin Method (“TNMM”) is often widely discussed in the tax sphere. However, the SEO and PGM cases bring this issue to the forefront like never before. In both cases, the applicability of the benchmarking analysis performed by the taxpayer was significantly challenged. In the SEO case, the taxpayer and the IRB had agreed on a final set of comparable companies. However, in the PGM case, the IRB disregarded the taxpayer’s analysis entirely despite two levels of benchmarking analyses being presented i.e., one on a regional level and another on a local level. Whilst the benchmarking analyses were challenged by the IRB and rejected, the courts ultimately affirmed the reasonableness of the analysis and sided with the taxpayer. The findings of the High Court noted that the IRB’s own set of comparable companies ought to be rejected as the taxpayer had produced a reliable analysis. The taxpayer had appropriately performed a functional analysis and aligned its selection of comparable companies to that of the taxpayer’s own functional profile. In addition, the taxpayer had prepared a complete transfer pricing documentation with an appropriate methodology for selection – which very much aided the taxpayer in obtaining a favourable outcome. This was in contrast to the IRB’s own lack of analysis – a point highlighted as being fatal and against the IRB’s own transfer pricing guidelines. </p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #121416; font-family: Lora; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">The lessons learned on this point is that, whilst the IRB may challenge the application of the TNMM during an audit, it is vital that taxpayers place an emphasis on the preparation of an appropriate benchmarking analysis that has been performed with a proper basis. An arbitrary selection of comparable companies or a simplistic approach is unlikely to yield a positive outcome in the event of any disputes. In addition, as the benchmarking analysis is often requested during the audit process, as in the SEO case, it is considered good practice for taxpayers to prepare such an analysis. This is especially so if the taxpayer meets the threshold for the preparation of a full transfer pricing documentation under Paragraph 1.3.1. of the Malaysian Transfer Pricing Guidelines or engages in cross-border transactions. The preparation of a benchmarking analysis in this case will act as an additional safeguard to defend the taxpayer’s position in the event of a transfer pricing audit. </p><h4 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; counter-reset: h5 0; font-family: Montserrat; font-size: 1.5rem; letter-spacing: -0.025em; line-height: 1; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word;">2. Burden of proof is on the taxpayer </h4><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #121416; font-family: Lora; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">A key outcome of the SEO case is the determination of where the burden of proof lies. The SCIT had cited the case of Macmine Pty Ltd v FCT (1979) 9ATR 38, which noted that <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">“the question in tax appeals is never whether the Commissioner has established, by proof, the particular state of facts upon which he relies in support of his assessment, it is, rather, whether the taxpayer has established the non-existence of the state of facts and, hence, the excessive (sic) of the assessment”. </em>In other words, the burden of proof lies with the taxpayer to show that the facts to support the assessment made, as interpreted by the tax authorities, do not exist. </p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #121416; font-family: Lora; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">To do so effectively, the taxpayer must realise that both quantitative and qualitative information are required to be sufficiently analysed and documented. From a quantitative perspective, the importance of the benchmarking analysis has been highlighted in Item 1 above. Taxpayers also must ensure that evidence such as economic data, transaction data, price movements for commodity-based transactions and financial data are all kept appropriately with respect to related party transactions. This would aid the taxpayer in making the arguments that its transfer prices have been sufficiently analysed and are in line with the arm’s length principle. </p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #121416; font-family: Lora; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">In addition to quantitative data, the taxpayer should place additional attention on qualitative information – which can provide a proper context to the transaction and bring to life the information provided during the audit process. This importance of qualitative information is often overlooked and taxpayers often struggle to maintain such evidence on a year to year basis. </p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #121416; font-family: Lora; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">The PGM case provides a clear illustration of its importance. During the audit proceedings, the taxpayer had sought to address the IRB’s queries regarding its transfer pricing practices by providing multiple sources of information. This included a functional analysis done within the transfer pricing documentation, sample marketing and promotional documentation, as well as explanations via letters to the IRB regarding the related party transaction being scrutinised. Specifically, the High Court noted that the taxpayer had offered <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">“…not only documentary evidence but also elaborate explanation…” </em>on the queries raised by the IRB. Therefore, it can be observed that the information presented by the taxpayer, which were aligned to the transfer pricing documentation and corresponding benchmarking analysis prepared, was a key component for consideration by the High Court in affirming the decision made regarding the PGM case in favour of the taxpayer. </p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #121416; font-family: Lora; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Hence, taxpayers should ensure that the qualitative aspects of their functions, assets and risks as well as the general conduct of their business with respect to related party transactions are well documented. This may include keeping qualitative information relevant to the company’s transfer pricing practices such as product brochures, marketing information, internal memos, meeting agendas or presentation slides. Whilst this list of information is not exhaustive, it should serve as a starting point for in-house tax teams on the part of the taxpayer to begin collating information relevant to the related party transactions documented in the company’s transfer pricing documentation. Such information may prove to be vital in supporting any arguments made by the taxpayer during a transfer pricing dispute with the IRB as well as in future court proceedings. </p><h4 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; counter-reset: h5 0; font-family: Montserrat; font-size: 1.5rem; letter-spacing: -0.025em; line-height: 1; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word;">3. The need for robust transfer pricing documentation </h4><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #121416; font-family: Lora; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Lastly, both the SEO case and PGM case highlight the great need for the preparation of robust transfer pricing documentation. Since 2021, the preparation of transfer pricing documentation for each year of assessment has become more important as any person who makes a default in furnishing contemporaneous transfer pricing documentation in respect of any year of assessment shall be liable to a fine of not less than RM20,000 and not more than RM100,000 (Section 113B of the Income Tax Act 1967). </p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #121416; font-family: Lora; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">The PGM case adds further weight to the importance of the transfer pricing documentation as the preparation of robust documentation was a key factor in the successful outcome for the taxpayer in the case. In particular, the High Court noted that the taxpayer had performed a proper functional analysis, which had properly discerned the respective functions, assets and risks undertaken. In addition, a detailed search criteria to identify the comparable companies was also documented. Besides, the conduct of the taxpayer’s business was in line with the transfer pricing documentation prepared, indicating that the transfer pricing documentation prepared was aligned to the actual substance of the company’s operations. Crucially, the documentation aligned with the transfer pricing guidelines applicable at the time. </p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #121416; font-family: Lora; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">The High Court in the PGM case affirmed the SCIT’s reliance on the transfer pricing documentation as it was prepared in accordance with the relevant guidelines and should be maintained. Whilst there remains a temptation to consider the preparation of transfer pricing documentation as merely a routine exercise, the PGM case highlights the importance of looking at the preparation of the transfer pricing documentation in greater detail. Taxpayers should ensure that any transfer pricing documentation that is being prepared aligns with the substance of the business and accurately documents the functions, assets and risks of the taxpayer with respect to its related party transactions. In addition, a yearly review would result in the contemporaneous nature of the documentation being maintained and may safeguard the taxpayer’s position in the event of any queries being raised by the tax authorities during a tax audit. </p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #121416; font-family: Lora; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #121416; font-family: Lora; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Read more <a href="https://www.at-mia.my/2022/09/27/lessons-learnt-from-recent-court-decisions-on-transfer-pricing-cases/" target="_blank">HERE</a>.</p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7282984519467580072.post-37600356832306165282022-12-06T13:01:00.003+08:002022-12-06T13:01:35.005+08:00Graffiti, flyers, word of mouth: China’s protesters embrace low-tech organizing to escape surveillance<p> </p><h3 class="post-header__text__dek" style="background-color: #fff3f3; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: "GT Sectra", serif; font-size: 2.8rem; font-weight: 400; line-height: 1.12; margin: 15px 0px 10px;">First-time protesters battle a powerful surveillance apparatus to express dissent.</h3><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiYyfviDVb79x11A-cI8j9mo2WmAKEWkpcMWSmR3inmStxGE_QEfc1ru7FqR8Jjx1_122Gpl64YMQHVALiJeCQCPauEpgGKuNdUHF8vy0TzBfyBxIaW1W2DlDPXF7YTpNhxKhxXHYjqJMpzHd-3ALHqqHS5EYz69hjUEWjduFTZWTL4aI4423azMtSq" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="1600" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiYyfviDVb79x11A-cI8j9mo2WmAKEWkpcMWSmR3inmStxGE_QEfc1ru7FqR8Jjx1_122Gpl64YMQHVALiJeCQCPauEpgGKuNdUHF8vy0TzBfyBxIaW1W2DlDPXF7YTpNhxKhxXHYjqJMpzHd-3ALHqqHS5EYz69hjUEWjduFTZWTL4aI4423azMtSq" width="320" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div class="post-subheader__byline" style="background-color: #fff3f3; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: Moderat, sans-serif; font-size: 1.8rem; font-weight: 700; line-height: 1.33; padding-top: 1.75em;">By <a class="author url fn" href="https://restofworld.org/author/viola-zhou/" rel="author" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; text-transform: uppercase; transition: color 150ms ease-out 0s;" title="Posts by Viola Zhou">VIOLA ZHOU</a> and <a class="author url fn" href="https://restofworld.org/author/meaghan-tobin/" rel="author" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; outline: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; text-transform: uppercase; transition: color 150ms ease-out 0s;" title="Posts by Meaghan Tobin">MEAGHAN TOBIN</a></div><div class="post-subheader__meta meta" style="background-color: #fff3f3; border-bottom: 3px solid var(--bright); box-sizing: inherit; font-family: "Input Mono", SFMono-Regular, "Roboto Mono", "Lucida Console", Monaco, Courier, monospace; font-size: 1.2rem; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 1.1; padding: 0.75em 0px 2em; text-transform: uppercase;"><div class="post-subheader__meta-date" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline-block;"><time datetime="2022-12-01" style="box-sizing: inherit;">1 DECEMBER 2022</time></div></div><br /></div><div><p style="background-color: #fff3f3; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: "GT Sectra", serif; font-size: 2.1rem; line-height: 1.55; margin: 0px auto 20px; max-width: 600px;">Little A, a university student in Shanghai, wouldn’t have known about the protest if a friend hadn’t told him to bypass the Great Firewall on Nov 27 to read news outside of China’s censored internet. That’s where he saw that people were planning to protest the country’s strict zero-Covid policy after at least ten people died in a fire in Urumqi, Xinjiang, where some of the toughest lockdown measures were in place. To commemorate those who died, the gathering — one of dozens of protests that erupted in major cities across China in the days that followed — took place on Shanghai’s Urumqi Road.</p><p style="background-color: #fff3f3; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: "GT Sectra", serif; font-size: 2.1rem; line-height: 1.55; margin: 0px auto 20px; max-width: 600px;">When Little A left a nearby subway station at 8 p.m., the 22-year-old encountered a crowd already hundreds-strong, along with more than a dozen police vehicles. In addition to calling for an end to the zero-Covid policy, the protesters chanted slogans demanding democracy and rule of law, and sang the socialist anthem “The Internationale.” Little A, who spoke to <em style="box-sizing: inherit;">Rest of World </em>under a pseudonym to discuss his first-ever protest freely, said, “It was something I wouldn’t have imagined before. It was the first time I said ‘No’ while standing with everyone else.” </p><p style="background-color: #fff3f3; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: "GT Sectra", serif; font-size: 2.1rem; line-height: 1.55; margin: 0px auto 20px; max-width: 600px;">The protests that have taken place over the past week constitute the country’s biggest wave of civil disobedience in decades. But organizing in China isn’t as simple as posting an event announcement to an online forum or a rallying cry on social media. Protesters told <em style="box-sizing: inherit;">Rest of World</em> they worry that sharing information online could lead to having their <a href="https://restofworld.org/2022/handwritten-wechat-apology-letters/" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid var(--bright); box-sizing: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; transition: color 150ms ease-out 0s;">accounts shut down</a>, or even being detained. </p><p style="background-color: #fff3f3; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: "GT Sectra", serif; font-size: 2.1rem; line-height: 1.55; margin: 0px auto 20px; max-width: 600px;">Instead, they’re increasingly turning to workarounds — many completely offline — in order to spread the word: from holding blank pieces of paper in public to scrawling graffiti in bathroom stalls on university campuses. And with older people less likely to use digital tools like VPNs, some protestors say they have simply resorted to spreading their message through word of mouth. </p><p style="background-color: #fff3f3; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: "GT Sectra", serif; font-size: 2.1rem; line-height: 1.55; margin: 0px auto 20px; max-width: 600px;">The current wave of dissent started gaining momentum in October, when a lone person on a highway bridge in Beijing hung banners calling for an end to the coronavirus restrictions and for President Xi Jinping to step down. The protestor’s acts emboldened a small group of young Chinese to disseminate his message by writing his slogans on public bathroom walls, among the only public places unlikely to be under surveillance. Protestors also pinned leaflets on campus bulletin boards, and shared images of the protest between Apple devices through AirDrop. </p><p style="background-color: #fff3f3; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: "GT Sectra", serif; font-size: 2.1rem; line-height: 1.55; margin: 0px auto 20px; max-width: 600px;">After the Urumqi fire, protesters emerged in multiple cities, alerting each other to gather with a combination of coded WeChat messages, VPNs, and some guesswork. On Sunday evening in Shanghai, Little A only realized he was joining a protest when he found himself in the crowd facing the police. “It was so unexpected,” he said. “Before the night, I had never thought I would dare chant these slogans and disobey the police.” </p><p style="background-color: #fff3f3; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: "GT Sectra", serif; font-size: 2.1rem; line-height: 1.55; margin: 0px auto 20px; max-width: 600px;">Read more <a href="https://restofworld.org/2022/china-covid-protests-surveillance/" target="_blank">here</a>.</p></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7282984519467580072.post-12054645247241179512022-12-06T12:48:00.003+08:002022-12-06T12:48:40.905+08:00Employment Act to apply to all employees from 1 January 2023, some sections subject to increased salary threshold of RM4,000/month<p> <em style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: red; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[Note: When this article was first published on 16 August 2022, the amendments to the Employment Act were scheduled to come into force on 1 September 2022. In late August 2022, the government announced that the implementation date would be deferred to 1 January 2023. This article has been edited to reflect the new implementation date, with any new text in red.]</em></p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333a42; font-family: "Noto Serif", Georgia, Times, serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px 0px 1.8em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">When the <span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Employment (Amendment) Act 2022</em></span> (“the Amendment Act”) was gazetted earlier this year, there was much <a href="https://www.internationalemploymentlawyer.com/news/confusion-reigns-over-amendments-malaysias-employment-act" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: #426f86; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: color 0.1s linear 0s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: blue; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">confusion regarding what the scope of the Employment Act (“EA”) would be</span></a> once the Amendment Act came into force. This confusion was fuelled by the government not amending the First Schedule at the same time the Amendment Act was passed, and also repeatedly stating that <span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: blue; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2022/03/23/employment-act-amendment-to-ensure-all-workers-covered-says-ministry/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: blue; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: color 0.1s linear 0s; vertical-align: baseline;">the EA’s scope would be expanded so that all employees regardless of salary would be entitled to the EA benefits and protections</a></span>, with many industry experts sharing the view that such a blanket expansion would be impractical for many reasons.</p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333a42; font-family: "Noto Serif", Georgia, Times, serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px 0px 1.8em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">With the gazetting of the <span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://lom.agc.gov.my/ilims/upload/portal/akta/outputp/1740274/PUA%20262.pdf" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: #426f86; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: color 0.1s linear 0s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: blue; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Employment (Amendment of First Schedule) Order 2022</span></a></em></span> (“First Schedule Amendment Order”) on 15 August 2022, there finally is clarity on the scope of the EA from <del style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">1 September 2022</del> <span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: red; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">1 January 2023</span>.</p><h2 style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; clear: both; color: #323e4e; font-family: Raleway, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 3rem; margin: 0px 0px 0.5em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 30px; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">EA salary threshold increased from RM2,000 to RM4,000</span></h2><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333a42; font-family: "Noto Serif", Georgia, Times, serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px 0px 1.8em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Prior to the new amendments, the vast majority of the EA only applied to employees earning up to RM2,000/month, or to specified groups of employees irrespective of wages (e.g. those engaged in or supervising manual labour, and several other groups). The existing EA set out specific provisions to enable non-EA employees to also be included in the sections of the EA regarding maternity protection (Part IX) and sexual harassment (Part XVA).</p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333a42; font-family: "Noto Serif", Georgia, Times, serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px 0px 1.8em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Following the <em style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">First Schedule Amendment Order</em> which will come into force on <del style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">1 September 2022</del> <span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: red; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">1 January 2023</span>, the way the EA scope is defined has been reversed. While it previously only applied to employees earning up to RM2,000/month with some specific sections applying to all employees, <span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">it will now apply to all employees irrespective of wages, with some specific sections not applying to employees earning more than RM4,000/month</span>. Here are the details:</p><ol style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333a42; font-family: "Noto Serif", Georgia, Times, serif; font-size: 15px; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0px 0px 1.5em 3em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The EA will now apply to <span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">“any person who has entered into a contract of service”</span>.</li><li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">However, the sections of the EA in relation to <span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">overtime payments and termination benefits will not apply to employees whose wages exceed RM4,000/month</span> (the full list of excluded EA provisions is listed below).</li><li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The list of EA provisions which do not apply to domestic employees (previously known as domestic servants) has also been expanded.</li></ol><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333a42; font-family: "Noto Serif", Georgia, Times, serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px 0px 1.8em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">This is the full list of EA provisions which will not apply to employees earning more than RM4,000/month:</p><ul style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333a42; font-family: "Noto Serif", Georgia, Times, serif; font-size: 15px; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0px 0px 1.5em 3em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Subsection 60(3): Overtime for work on rest days.</li><li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Subsection 60A(3): Overtime for work outside of normal working hours.</li><li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Subsection 60C(2A): Shift work allowance.</li><li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Subsection 60D(3): Overtime and allowance for work on public holidays.</li><li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Subsection 60D(4): Overtime for work on holidays on half working days.</li><li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Subsection 60J: Termination, lay-off, and retirement benefits.</li></ul><h2 style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; clear: both; color: #323e4e; font-family: Raleway, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 3rem; margin: 0px 0px 0.5em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 30px; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">What employers need to do</span></h2><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333a42; font-family: "Noto Serif", Georgia, Times, serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px 0px 1.8em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">All employers will need to review their existing employment contracts and policies to ensure that they comply with the EA. It should be noted that Section 7 of the EA states that any terms or conditions which are less favourable to an employee than those provided under the EA will be void and of no effect. This includes contracts which were entered into before <del style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">1 September 2022</del> <span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: red; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">1 January 2023</span>.</p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333a42; font-family: "Noto Serif", Georgia, Times, serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px 0px 1.8em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">(For a more comprehensive look at the changes under the Amendment Act, read my earlier article: </em><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: blue; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://themalaysianlawyer.com/2021/10/26/employment-act-amendments-7-key-changes/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: blue; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: color 0.1s linear 0s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">“Malaysia Employment Act amendments: 7 key changes for employers to note”</em></span></a></span><em style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">)</em></p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333a42; font-family: "Noto Serif", Georgia, Times, serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px 0px 1.8em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Read more at: https://themalaysianlawyer.com/<a href="https://themalaysianlawyer.com/"></a></em></p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333a42; font-family: "Noto Serif", Georgia, Times, serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px 0px 1.8em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></em></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7282984519467580072.post-12105225327361189842022-10-12T13:46:00.004+08:002022-10-12T13:46:51.961+08:00Getting to Know the Russian Battalion Tactical Group<p> <span style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", Garamond, Georgia, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;">Lester W Grau and </span><span style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", Garamond, Georgia, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 0px;">Charles K Bartles</span></p><div class="ArticleMeta-module--flex--LtNyO" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-direction: row; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", Garamond, Georgia, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><b aria-label="published date" class="ArticleMeta-module--date---Avet" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-right: calc(32/var(--t)*1rem); margin-top: 0px;">14 April 2022</b><b aria-label="published date" class="ArticleMeta-module--date---Avet" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-right: calc(32/var(--t)*1rem); margin-top: 0px;"><br /></b><b aria-label="published date" class="ArticleMeta-module--date---Avet" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-right: calc(32/var(--t)*1rem); margin-top: 0px;"><br /></b><b aria-label="published date" class="ArticleMeta-module--date---Avet" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-right: calc(32/var(--t)*1rem); margin-top: 0px;"><br /></b><b aria-label="published date" class="ArticleMeta-module--date---Avet" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-right: calc(32/var(--t)*1rem); margin-top: 0px;"><br /></b><b aria-label="published date" class="ArticleMeta-module--date---Avet" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-right: calc(32/var(--t)*1rem); margin-top: 0px;"><br /></b><b aria-label="published date" class="ArticleMeta-module--date---Avet" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-right: calc(32/var(--t)*1rem); margin-top: 0px;"><br /></b><b aria-label="published date" class="ArticleMeta-module--date---Avet" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-right: calc(32/var(--t)*1rem); margin-top: 0px;"><br /></b><b aria-label="published date" class="ArticleMeta-module--date---Avet" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-right: calc(32/var(--t)*1rem); margin-top: 0px;"><br /></b><span class="ReadTime-module--component--nq2VG" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; align-items: center; box-sizing: border-box; color: #410a48; display: flex; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><i class="IconSprite-module--component--fc6qn" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; height: calc(16/var(--t)*1rem); justify-content: center; margin-right: calc(8/var(--t)*1rem); width: calc(16/var(--t)*1rem);"><svg aria-label="read time" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><use xlink:href="#icon-clock"></use></svg></i></span></div><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><div class="ArticleMeta-module--flex--LtNyO" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-direction: row; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", Garamond, Georgia, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><h3 style="text-align: left;"><p style="text-align: left;"><span class="ReadTime-module--component--nq2VG" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; align-items: center; box-sizing: border-box; color: #410a48; display: flex; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><b style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px;"></b></span></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px;"><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQkkvD2Q5pju46ETifmKH4Rho8MGwPsLIOqOxTS5U2VwgtQ0ay3pK0ZvEfYiNc1dEpomIzm_A3VDOOuVY0JMwTA_dfpMlVh3uIasVdZFn32fOYUFSL6GhNlFGhgeD_Ylxy1sBgE9AF5Gko32BJLTMdVGsQz9bwI0LfvhXAbcv3yUDzw_SEf7V2qD0X/s1168/russian-convoy-1168x440px.webp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="440" data-original-width="1168" height="121" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQkkvD2Q5pju46ETifmKH4Rho8MGwPsLIOqOxTS5U2VwgtQ0ay3pK0ZvEfYiNc1dEpomIzm_A3VDOOuVY0JMwTA_dfpMlVh3uIasVdZFn32fOYUFSL6GhNlFGhgeD_Ylxy1sBgE9AF5Gko32BJLTMdVGsQz9bwI0LfvhXAbcv3yUDzw_SEf7V2qD0X/s320/russian-convoy-1168x440px.webp" width="320" /></a></div>Much has been written on Russia’s battalion tactical groups in recent weeks. It is thus of value to revisit their origins and capabilities, and the roles they were set up to play.</b></li></ul><p></p></h3></div></blockquote><p> </p><div class="TextParagraph-module--component--+Ekkv" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Serif Pro", Helvetica, Arial, serif; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-5, 40)/var(--t)*1rem);"><div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box;"><h2 style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", Garamond, Georgia, sans-serif; font-size: calc(var(--t-h2, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-h2, 40)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-4, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Introduction</h2><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Success in modern conventional warfare is determined by a combination of effort, environment and – to an extent – luck. However, the most important determinants of victory are the actions of combined arms units. Only these units, in cooperation with other branches of arms and other military services, can perform the full spectrum of defensive and offensive tasks. The execution of these tasks depends upon the enemy’s composition, position and probable course of action; the position and condition of one’s own subordinate, attached and supporting units; the conditions of the area on which the assigned tasks will occur; and weather. Traditionally, Russia’s lowest echelons capable of performing combined arms tasks were the regiment or brigade, but experimentation in the 1980s led to a semi-permanent combined arms formation at the battalion level, the Battalion Tactical Group (BTG).</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has made the term ‘Battalion Tactical Group’ commonplace beyond the expert community, from the mass media to YouTube and a plethora of blog sites. Though understanding of the invasion is still in its infancy, this article intends to shed some light on what a BTG is, and how it is used in a Russian military context.</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">At the time of writing, details are still sketchy, but based upon media reports and a few captured Russian maps, it appears that Russia has conducted a partial mobilisation, deploying only partial divisions/regiments, brigades, and independent BTGs. Larger formations have apparently deployed only with their BTGs, leaving their other manoeuvre battalions in garrisons. Although the Russians appear to be having difficulties, this structural change was likely envisioned from the beginning of the operation, as the scale of the conflict is unsuitable for the sole use of independent BTGs. The BTG was ideal for earlier fighting in support of separatist ethnic Russian elements in Donetsk and Luhansk; however, large-scale combat requires large-scale combined arms operations and battalions fighting as part of larger entities.</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">The brigade/regiment may now be the primary unit of manoeuvre, but some independent BTGs likely remain in play. They are either being spun off a parent regiment/brigade for a particular mission (such as forward detachments, advance guards, raiding detachments, flank guards, or urban assault detachments) or may be entirely independent. It is likely that some BTGs will be subordinated to regiments/brigades that they are not otherwise affiliated with, and possibly to different branches, including the naval infantry and airborne troops (VDV), if expedient.</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></p><h2 style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", Garamond, Georgia, sans-serif; font-size: calc(var(--t-h2, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-h2, 40)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-4, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">History of the Battalion Tactical Group</h2><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">The BTG is not a new feature in Russian military thought. The Russian Civil War (1917–1923) included raiding groups, forward detachments, rear guards, advance guards and other mobile battalions comprised of horse cavalry, machinegun detachments mounted on horse-drawn carts, horse-drawn artillery, and occasional tanks or armoured cars. Their focus was on speed, manoeuvre, the ability to mass fires and forces, and the interaction of these forces to achieve a combined combat power greater than the component parts. During the Second World War, the Soviets fought primarily with separate infantry, armour and artillery units that occasionally fought as combined arms units, but usually integrated shortly before the battle. Artillery and artillerymen were always present in infantry battalions in the form of mortars, direct-fire cannon and antitank rifles.</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">During the Cold War, the Soviets realised that combined arms units were more effective than integrating branch units just before the fight. There were problems integrating them in garrison and training. Branch units occupied their own barracks. Tanks, personnel carriers and artillery required different maintenance parts and services. Branch weapons qualification required different ranges and facilities. Branch proficiency was necessary before putting different branch soldiers together in exercises or combat. So the Soviet Army trained for branch skills, but when it went on field exercises, it fought combined. The results were not always inspiring. Commanders struggled to integrate their branch forces with those of other branches – though units that trained together on a sustained basis performed better.</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Over time, divisions and regiments became fairly proficient in combined arms combat, but the nature of the battlefield was changing. Modern weapons forced units to spread out in order to survive. The future battlefield would be fragmented, with gaps between units, open flanks and combat not only at the front line, but also throughout the battlespace. The concept of the front line itself was being challenged. It thus became obvious that the battalion was a prime component of future war and battalions had to fight combined to win. The problem was how to combine branches into battalions and fight effectively. What was the optimum mix of tanks, mounted infantry, artillery, engineers, air defence and other branches? How could they be trained simultaneously and effectively in branch and combined arms skills?</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Throughout the Cold War, the Soviets tried different combinations of forces in an effort to create an optimum Combined Arms Battalion, or Battalion Tactical Group in the Russian parlance. It had to be lethal, yet not too large, capable of acting independently for a period of days, and able to fight combined effectively. From the 1960s to the end of the 1980s, the Soviet Motorised Rifle Battalion and Tank Battalion went through several Table of Organisation and Equipment (TO&E) changes to try to improve their combined arms lethality. During the same period, they conducted hundreds of exercises using different mixes of tanks, motorised rifle, air defence, engineers and combat support forces, looking for the optimum <a href="https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/ADA216368" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(42, 115, 144); box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; font-size: calc(var(--t-body-small, 18)/var(--t)*1rem); font-weight: 700; line-height: calc(var(--l-body-small, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); text-decoration-line: none;">solution</a>. Clearly, the Soviets were trying to determine the optimum TO&E structure, training and employment of BTGs.</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">After the collapse of the USSR, the impetus to develop the BTG was strengthened by Russia’s experience during the Chechen campaigns and related counterterrorism activities. During this period, the 58th Combined Arms Army manoeuvre regiments formed BTGs based on motorised rifle battalions that were reinforced with tanks; artillery; air defence; reconnaissance; engineering; chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear defence; communications; maintenance; and logistics units. These BTGs were 100% equipped and manned, with mostly contract personnel, and were on a six-month readiness cycle until their personnel were rotated out. Many characteristics of today’s BTG can be directly traced to this time.</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></p><h2 style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", Garamond, Georgia, sans-serif; font-size: calc(var(--t-h2, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-h2, 40)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-4, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Battalion Tactical Groups in Today’s Russia</h2><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Today, the BTG is a semi-permanent task force found in the manoeuvre (motorised rifle and tank) regiments and brigades of the Russian Ground Forces, Naval Infantry and VDV. BTGs are task-organised motorised rifle or tank battalion-plus-sized combat entities that can perform semi-independent combined arms combat missions. They are <a href="https://zvezdaweekly.ru/news/2021291350-Qy88G.html" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(42, 115, 144); box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; font-size: calc(var(--t-body-small, 18)/var(--t)*1rem); font-weight: 700; line-height: calc(var(--l-body-small, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); text-decoration-line: none;">capable</a> of conducting deep raids, envelopments and flanking manoeuvres. In the Russian system, the lowest echelon of combined arms command has traditionally been the manoeuvre regiment or brigade. Thus, the Russians do not use terms like ‘Regimental Tactical Group’ when referring to their manoeuvre formations, as these formations are inherently combined arms in nature. The term ‘Battalion Tactical Group’ is a special delineation of function which notes that this formation is combined arms in nature.</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">By current Russian General Staff <a href="https://ria.ru/defense_safety/20160914/1476912391.html" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(42, 115, 144); box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; font-size: calc(var(--t-body-small, 18)/var(--t)*1rem); font-weight: 700; line-height: calc(var(--l-body-small, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); text-decoration-line: none;">directive</a>, each regiment and brigade is supposed to have two designated BTGs. But units in the Southern Military District <a href="https://cyberleninka-ru.translate.goog/article/n/aktualnye-napravleniya-sovershenstvovaniya-boevoy-podgotovki-voysk-s-uchetom-opyta-poluchennogo-v-sirii?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(42, 115, 144); box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; font-size: calc(var(--t-body-small, 18)/var(--t)*1rem); font-weight: 700; line-height: calc(var(--l-body-small, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); text-decoration-line: none;">reportedly</a> have three BTGs per regiment/brigade. In terms of composition, a BTG consists of a motorised rifle battalion or tank battalion with varying combat support attachments. These attachments can vary, as they depend upon the equipment organic to the battalion and the tasks it is likely to be assigned. The most common BTG variant is based on a motorised rifle battalion with an attached tank company, self-propelled howitzer battalion, air defence platoon, engineer squad, and logistic support.</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-3, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: calc(var(--t-body, 20)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body, 32)/var(--t)*1rem); margin: 0px;"><span style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">Figure 1: <a href="https://sliv.top/2021/07/19/severnyj-flot-na-donbasse/" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(42, 115, 144); box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; font-size: calc(var(--t-body-small, 18)/var(--t)*1rem); line-height: calc(var(--l-body-small, 24)/var(--t)*1rem); text-decoration-line: none;">Example</a> of a Battalion Tactical Group (circa 2014–2015)</span></p></div></div><div class="ImageParagraph-module--component--o8wUB" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-direction: row; font-family: "Source Serif Pro", Helvetica, Arial, serif; font-size: 16px; justify-content: space-between; margin-bottom: calc(var(--r-5, 40)/var(--t)*1rem);"><div class="ImageParagraph-module--imageWrapper--5Ti1O" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(228, 228, 228); border-top: 1px solid rgb(228, 228, 228); box-sizing: border-box; flex: 1 1 0%; margin-right: 0px; padding-top: calc(16/var(--t)*1rem);"><div class=" gatsby-image-wrapper" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; overflow: hidden; position: relative;"></div></div></div><p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQ-djLOcLEnFxVcoHFz3JEAJpLnJ1guOCaABS2HGzBRgpwaNJX1NE3325QzfgLWzuRv9zVb-Vm8d2vGr509ycainnJ9ZeRLSeCtWdtvAztp7_7aCGnhrctAGXuqSNVfJRJUyrEblmrYCvCinC0IajkB5f1tHWolXqUG-_5403mSIENh0cp_nP1uWau/s769/fig1-2481x2935px.webp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="769" data-original-width="650" height="475" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQ-djLOcLEnFxVcoHFz3JEAJpLnJ1guOCaABS2HGzBRgpwaNJX1NE3325QzfgLWzuRv9zVb-Vm8d2vGr509ycainnJ9ZeRLSeCtWdtvAztp7_7aCGnhrctAGXuqSNVfJRJUyrEblmrYCvCinC0IajkB5f1tHWolXqUG-_5403mSIENh0cp_nP1uWau/w400-h475/fig1-2481x2935px.webp" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Read more <a href="https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/getting-know-russian-battalion-tactical-group">here.</a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><p></p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><div class="ArticleMeta-module--flex--LtNyO" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-direction: row; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", Garamond, Georgia, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><h3 style="text-align: left;"><p style="text-align: left;"><span class="ReadTime-module--component--nq2VG" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; align-items: center; box-sizing: border-box; color: #410a48; display: flex; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><b style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px;"></b></span></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px;"> </b></li></ul><p></p></h3></div></blockquote><p> </p><p> </p><div class="ArticleMeta-module--flex--LtNyO" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-direction: row; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", Garamond, Georgia, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span class="ReadTime-module--component--nq2VG" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; align-items: center; box-sizing: border-box; color: #410a48; display: flex; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><b style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px;"><br /></b><b style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px;"><br /></b><b style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px;"><br /></b><b style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px;"><br /></b><b style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px;"><br /></b><b style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px;"><br /></b><b style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px;"><br /></b><b style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px;"><br /></b><b style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px;"><br /></b><b style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px;"><br /></b><b style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px;"><br /></b><b style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px;"><br /></b><b style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px;"><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><br /></b></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7282984519467580072.post-65359304531031226042022-10-12T13:30:00.001+08:002022-10-12T13:30:10.537+08:00The Nord Stream pipeline leaks are a disaster — the oil and gas industry has a much bigger mess<p> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhQcExAsiTOpkw5SuXXYhAN5LwDEtdIcEZLJS2KA39UA8xinb5W_jnR2HtpB48_8onS_zz0GTGAthfCSncHGRWpzXdHRNnEPMp-Uma4eTJKhgwFBs7yjOlp7cEmEBsrzPheAQuRLXVI01WWdKIkWC9JupCEGytlsAajsEP1DiSebn1VHm_-hwXcCvdb" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="552" data-original-width="828" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhQcExAsiTOpkw5SuXXYhAN5LwDEtdIcEZLJS2KA39UA8xinb5W_jnR2HtpB48_8onS_zz0GTGAthfCSncHGRWpzXdHRNnEPMp-Uma4eTJKhgwFBs7yjOlp7cEmEBsrzPheAQuRLXVI01WWdKIkWC9JupCEGytlsAajsEP1DiSebn1VHm_-hwXcCvdb" width="320" /></a></td></tr></tbody></table></p><figcaption class="duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup inline text-gray-e9 [&>a:hover]:text-black [&>a]:shadow-underline-gray-13 [&>a:hover]:shadow-underline-black text-gray-13" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-text-opacity: 1; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(19 19 19/var(--tw-text-opacity)); display: inline; font-family: "Poly Sans Mono", "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 12px; letter-spacing: 0.12px;"><em style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box;">In this Handout Photo provided by Swedish Coast Guard, the release of gas emanating from a leak on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea on September 28th, 2022, in At Sea.</em></figcaption><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Poly Sans Mono", "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 12px; letter-spacing: 0.12px; text-align: start;"> </span><cite class="duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup inline not-italic [&>a:hover]:text-black [&>a]:shadow-underline-gray-63 [&>a:hover]:shadow-underline-black text-gray-63" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-text-opacity: 1; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(99 99 99/var(--tw-text-opacity)); display: inline; font-family: "Poly Sans Mono", "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; letter-spacing: 0.12px; text-align: start;">Photo by Swedish Coast Guard via Getty Images<br /><br /><br /><div class="[&>p>span:first-child]:text-black text-blurple" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; 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text-transform: uppercase;"><a class="hover:shadow-underline-inherit" href="https://www.theverge.com/authors/justine-calma" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit;">JUSTINE CALMA</a></span><span class="font-medium tracking-2" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; 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--tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-text-opacity: 1; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(90 90 90/var(--tw-text-opacity)); font-family: "Poly Sans", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 12px;"><time class="duet--article--timestamp font-polysans text-12" datetime="2022-09-30T18:04:12.426Z" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; 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--tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-text-opacity: 1; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(82 0 255/var(--tw-text-opacity)); font-family: "Poly Sans", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 30px;">/ </span><h2 class="inline selection:bg-franklin-20" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline; font-family: "Poly Sans", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px;">The amount of methane that routinely leaks from oil and gas infrastructure dwarfs the Nord Stream pipelines’ huge mess</h2><div><span style="font-family: Poly Sans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div><div class="duet--article--article-body-component" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji";"><p class="duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph mb-20 font-fkroman text-18 -tracking-1 leading-160 dark:text-white selection:bg-franklin-20 dark:selection:bg-blurple [&_a]:shadow-underline-black [&_a:hover]:shadow-highlight-franklin dark:[&_a:hover]:shadow-highlight-franklin dark:[&_a]:shadow-underline-white" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "FK Roman Standard", Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">This week, the world watched what’s likely to be the fossil fuel industry’s single largest methane release ever. An astonishing amount of methane is floating up from the now-notorious Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines and rising above the surface of the Baltic Sea. It’s a pollution nightmare. It also pales in comparison to the vast amount of methane that oil and gas operations constantly release.</p></div><div class="duet--article--article-body-component" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji";"><p class="duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph mb-20 font-fkroman text-18 -tracking-1 leading-160 dark:text-white selection:bg-franklin-20 dark:selection:bg-blurple [&_a]:shadow-underline-black [&_a:hover]:shadow-highlight-franklin dark:[&_a:hover]:shadow-highlight-franklin dark:[&_a]:shadow-underline-white" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "FK Roman Standard", Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">Up to 778 million standard cubic meters of methane gas could spew from the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in a worst-case scenario, <a href="https://ens.dk/en/press/possible-climate-effect-gas-leaks-nord-stream-1-and-nord-stream-2-pipelines" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: inset 0 -1px 0 0 var(--tw-shadow-color); --tw-shadow: inset 0 -1px 0 0 #000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-shadow: var(--tw-ring-offset-shadow,0 0 #0000),var(--tw-ring-shadow,0 0 #0000),var(--tw-shadow); box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit;">according to</a> the Danish Energy Agency. That’s equivalent to nearly a third of Denmark’s greenhouse gas emissions for the entire year of 2020.</p></div><div class="duet--article--article-body-component" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji";"><p class="duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph mb-20 font-fkroman text-18 -tracking-1 leading-160 dark:text-white selection:bg-franklin-20 dark:selection:bg-blurple [&_a]:shadow-underline-black [&_a:hover]:shadow-highlight-franklin dark:[&_a:hover]:shadow-highlight-franklin dark:[&_a]:shadow-underline-white" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "FK Roman Standard", Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">The Nord Stream <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/28/world/europe/nordstream-pipeline-gas-leak-explosions.html" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: inset 0 -1px 0 0 var(--tw-shadow-color); --tw-shadow: inset 0 -1px 0 0 #000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-shadow: var(--tw-ring-offset-shadow,0 0 #0000),var(--tw-ring-shadow,0 0 #0000),var(--tw-shadow); box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit;">disaster</a> “is an extraordinarily huge one-time event,” says Andrew Baxter, a chemical engineer turned director of energy transition at the Environmental Defense Fund. “But it’s sort of emblematic of other massive emissions from the oil and gas industry of methane into the atmosphere.”</p></div><div class="duet--article--article-body-component block clear-both md:float-left md:mr-30 md:w-[320px] lg:-ml-100" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; float: left; font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; margin-left: -100px; margin-right: 30px; width: 320px;"><div class="duet--article--article-pullquote mb-20" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 20px;"><div class="mb-10 w-[65px] h-[22px] bg-franklin" style="--tw-bg-opacity: 1; --tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box; height: 22px; margin-bottom: 10px; width: 65px;"></div><p class="duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup relative pb-8 font-polysans text-28 font-medium tracking-1 leading-120 dark:text-white selection:bg-franklin-20 dark:selection:bg-blurple bg-[length:1px_1.2em] bg-repeating-lines-dark dark:bg-repeating-lines-light" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-image: linear-gradient(transparent calc(100% - 1px), rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3)); background-size: 1px 1.2em; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Poly Sans", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 28px; letter-spacing: 0.01em; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding-bottom: 8px; position: relative;">The Nord Stream disaster “is an extraordinarily huge one-time event”</p></div></div><div class="duet--article--article-body-component" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji";"><p class="duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph mb-20 font-fkroman text-18 -tracking-1 leading-160 dark:text-white selection:bg-franklin-20 dark:selection:bg-blurple [&_a]:shadow-underline-black [&_a:hover]:shadow-highlight-franklin dark:[&_a:hover]:shadow-highlight-franklin dark:[&_a]:shadow-underline-white" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "FK Roman Standard", Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">As big as this event is, runaway gas from the Nord Stream pipelines amounts to a fraction of the methane that routinely escapes from oil and gas fields, pipelines, and other infrastructure. Faulty equipment can <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/how-secretive-methane-leaks-are-driving-climate-change#:~:text=The%20oil%20and%20gas%20industries,gas%20facilities%20for%20safety%20reasons." style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: inset 0 -1px 0 0 var(--tw-shadow-color); --tw-shadow: inset 0 -1px 0 0 #000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-shadow: var(--tw-ring-offset-shadow,0 0 #0000),var(--tw-ring-shadow,0 0 #0000),var(--tw-shadow); box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit;">leak</a> for weeks. Companies also “vent” gas — releasing it into the air — for well or pipeline maintenance or to keep pressure from building up to dangerous levels in their equipment. The oil and gas industry releases 82.5 million tons of methane emissions a year, <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u%3Dhttps-3A__www.iea.org_reports_global-2Dmethane-2Dtracker-2D2022_overview%26d%3DDwMF-g%26c%3D7MSjEE-cVgLCRHxk1P5PWg%26r%3DJTAqS4NTaXGfTsYT2gi3wgk6NvDqP2GfFkR8iPmzy_4%26m%3DdIzBU35a5721T5e1teCq7Ic3VYqchuGB0omYcoadkb-jB8zDlPHNggKSElNQy08v%26s%3DeK8PgBXFQcUtn1r8hVyTp2QvCnZggNCw_-rbgHZrceI%26e%3D&source=gmail&ust=1664639137754000&usg=AOvVaw3KpQPxErFwKNmaTujWrAoJ" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: inset 0 -1px 0 0 var(--tw-shadow-color); --tw-shadow: inset 0 -1px 0 0 #000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-shadow: var(--tw-ring-offset-shadow,0 0 #0000),var(--tw-ring-shadow,0 0 #0000),var(--tw-shadow); box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit;">by the International Energy Agency’s measure</a>. That’s equivalent to the worst-case scenario for the Nord Stream disaster taking place every two days, Baxter tells <em style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box;">The Verge</em>. The US oil and gas industry alone releases methane at the rate of a Nord Stream disaster about every two and a half weeks, climate writer and analyst Ketan Joshi <a href="https://twitter.com/KetanJ0/status/1575454336905355266" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: inset 0 -1px 0 0 var(--tw-shadow-color); --tw-shadow: inset 0 -1px 0 0 #000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-shadow: var(--tw-ring-offset-shadow,0 0 #0000),var(--tw-ring-shadow,0 0 #0000),var(--tw-shadow); box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit;">calculated</a>.</p><p class="duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph mb-20 font-fkroman text-18 -tracking-1 leading-160 dark:text-white selection:bg-franklin-20 dark:selection:bg-blurple [&_a]:shadow-underline-black [&_a:hover]:shadow-highlight-franklin dark:[&_a:hover]:shadow-highlight-franklin dark:[&_a]:shadow-underline-white" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "FK Roman Standard", Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 20px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -0.18px;">To be perfectly clear, what’s happening with the Nord Stream 1 and 2 Gas Pipelines is far from ordinary. “All currently available information indicates that this is the result of deliberate, reckless, and irresponsible acts of sabotage,” NATO said in a </span><a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_207733.htm" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: inset 0 -1px 0 0 var(--tw-shadow-color); --tw-shadow: inset 0 -1px 0 0 #000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-shadow: var(--tw-ring-offset-shadow,0 0 #0000),var(--tw-ring-shadow,0 0 #0000),var(--tw-shadow); box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: -0.18px; text-decoration: inherit;">press release</a><span style="letter-spacing: -0.18px;"> yesterday. Vladimir Putin has also </span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/qa-nord-stream-gas-sabotage-whos-being-blamed-why-2022-09-30/" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: inset 0 -1px 0 0 var(--tw-shadow-color); --tw-shadow: inset 0 -1px 0 0 #000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-shadow: var(--tw-ring-offset-shadow,0 0 #0000),var(--tw-ring-shadow,0 0 #0000),var(--tw-shadow); box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: -0.18px; text-decoration: inherit;">accused</a><span style="letter-spacing: -0.18px;"> Western governments of sabotaging the pipelines. The pipelines, which run from Russia to Germany, are a physical embodiment of Western Europe’s reliance on gas, much of it </span><a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_22_1512" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: inset 0 -1px 0 0 var(--tw-shadow-color); --tw-shadow: inset 0 -1px 0 0 #000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-shadow: var(--tw-ring-offset-shadow,0 0 #0000),var(--tw-ring-shadow,0 0 #0000),var(--tw-shadow); box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: -0.18px; text-decoration: inherit;">coming from Russia</a><span style="letter-spacing: -0.18px;">. So before fears of sabotage, these pipelines were already a flashpoint for </span><a href="https://www.theverge.com/2022/3/8/22967244/european-union-russia-clean-energy-transition-gas" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: inset 0 -1px 0 0 var(--tw-shadow-color); --tw-shadow: inset 0 -1px 0 0 #000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-shadow: var(--tw-ring-offset-shadow,0 0 #0000),var(--tw-ring-shadow,0 0 #0000),var(--tw-shadow); box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: -0.18px; text-decoration: inherit;">efforts to transition</a><span style="letter-spacing: -0.18px;"> the European Union to clean energy.</span></p><div class="duet--article--article-body-component" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box;"><p class="duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph mb-20 font-fkroman text-18 -tracking-1 leading-160 dark:text-white selection:bg-franklin-20 dark:selection:bg-blurple [&_a]:shadow-underline-black [&_a:hover]:shadow-highlight-franklin dark:[&_a:hover]:shadow-highlight-franklin dark:[&_a]:shadow-underline-white" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "FK Roman Standard", Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">Nor is it normal to see nearly half a mile of the surface of the sea roiling with methane. The Danish Armed Forces <a href="https://www.forsvaret.dk/en/news/2022/gas-leak-in-the-baltic-sea/" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: inset 0 -1px 0 0 var(--tw-shadow-color); --tw-shadow: inset 0 -1px 0 0 #000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-shadow: var(--tw-ring-offset-shadow,0 0 #0000),var(--tw-ring-shadow,0 0 #0000),var(--tw-shadow); box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit;">released</a> mesmerizing video and images of the bubbling disaster<span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bolder;"> </span>in the Baltic this week. And while seawater can typically <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0920410520310597" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: inset 0 -1px 0 0 var(--tw-shadow-color); --tw-shadow: inset 0 -1px 0 0 #000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-shadow: var(--tw-ring-offset-shadow,0 0 #0000),var(--tw-ring-shadow,0 0 #0000),var(--tw-shadow); box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit;">absorb</a> most of methane from smaller underwater leaks, preventing it from floating up to the air, this isn’t the case with the Nord Stream disaster because of how enormous the leaks are.</p></div><div class="duet--article--article-body-component" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box;"><p class="duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph mb-20 font-fkroman text-18 -tracking-1 leading-160 dark:text-white selection:bg-franklin-20 dark:selection:bg-blurple [&_a]:shadow-underline-black [&_a:hover]:shadow-highlight-franklin dark:[&_a:hover]:shadow-highlight-franklin dark:[&_a]:shadow-underline-white" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "FK Roman Standard", Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">“The sea cannot take in that volume,” says Mahmoud Khalifeh, an associate professor at the University of Stavanger who has researched gas leaks from offshore wells. Khalifeh expects more than 90 percent of the gas that escapes from the pipelines to make its way into the atmosphere.</p></div><div class="duet--article--article-body-component" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box;"><p class="duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph mb-20 font-fkroman text-18 -tracking-1 leading-160 dark:text-white selection:bg-franklin-20 dark:selection:bg-blurple [&_a]:shadow-underline-black [&_a:hover]:shadow-highlight-franklin dark:[&_a:hover]:shadow-highlight-franklin dark:[&_a]:shadow-underline-white" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "FK Roman Standard", Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">He also points out that, unlike spilled oil that collects in the water, there’s not much that can typically be done to clean up leaking gas. It simply dissipates into the water and air. It’s also dangerous for authorities to send in personnel to deal with the mess. The air quality is too horrendous, and sending in vehicles to clean things up could spark a massive blaze. In Nord Stream’s case, however, Mahmoud thinks fire could mitigate some of the risks. Setting the methane ablaze would convert the plume to carbon dioxide, which can be 80 times less potent than methane as a greenhouse gas. It might also stop the methane from drifting ashore and polluting communities there. Lighting up excess gas, called flaring, is also a strategy oil and gas companies use to minimize methane emissions.</p></div><div class="duet--article--article-body-component" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box;"><p class="duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph mb-20 font-fkroman text-18 -tracking-1 leading-160 dark:text-white selection:bg-franklin-20 dark:selection:bg-blurple [&_a]:shadow-underline-black [&_a:hover]:shadow-highlight-franklin dark:[&_a:hover]:shadow-highlight-franklin dark:[&_a]:shadow-underline-white" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "FK Roman Standard", Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">The UN Environment Programme released satellite images yesterday of the methane plume above the Nord Stream leaks. There are growing efforts to document methane leaks from space as an increasing body of <a href="https://www.edf.org/climate/methane-studies" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: inset 0 -1px 0 0 var(--tw-shadow-color); --tw-shadow: inset 0 -1px 0 0 #000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-shadow: var(--tw-ring-offset-shadow,0 0 #0000),var(--tw-ring-shadow,0 0 #0000),var(--tw-shadow); box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit;">research</a> shows that <a href="https://www.catf.us/2022/04/ieas-methane-tracker-shows-massive-underestimation-methane-emissions-national-inventories/" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: inset 0 -1px 0 0 var(--tw-shadow-color); --tw-shadow: inset 0 -1px 0 0 #000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-shadow: var(--tw-ring-offset-shadow,0 0 #0000),var(--tw-ring-shadow,0 0 #0000),var(--tw-shadow); box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit;">many countries</a> are likely undercounting how much methane is leaking from oil and gas operations.</p><p class="duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph mb-20 font-fkroman text-18 -tracking-1 leading-160 dark:text-white selection:bg-franklin-20 dark:selection:bg-blurple [&_a]:shadow-underline-black [&_a:hover]:shadow-highlight-franklin dark:[&_a:hover]:shadow-highlight-franklin dark:[&_a]:shadow-underline-white" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "FK Roman Standard", Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 20px;"></p><div class="mt-30 mb-40" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin-bottom: 40px; margin-top: 30px; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><button class="duet--article--comments-join-the-conversation group inline-flex" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; appearance: button; background-color: transparent; background-image: none; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; cursor: pointer; display: inline-flex; font-family: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-transform: none;"></button></div><p></p><div style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><div class="duet--article--article-body-component" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box;"><p class="duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph mb-20 font-fkroman text-18 -tracking-1 leading-160 dark:text-white selection:bg-franklin-20 dark:selection:bg-blurple [&_a]:shadow-underline-black [&_a:hover]:shadow-highlight-franklin dark:[&_a:hover]:shadow-highlight-franklin dark:[&_a]:shadow-underline-white" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "FK Roman Standard", Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">“This is a special one-off event that’s got everyone’s attention. But the oil and gas industry emits millions of tons of methane every year, and that’s supercharging near-term [global] warming,” Baxter says. “I hope that this brings that into focus for more people, we need to be able to regulate [emissions from these] companies and take this extremely seriously.”</p><p class="duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph mb-20 font-fkroman text-18 -tracking-1 leading-160 dark:text-white selection:bg-franklin-20 dark:selection:bg-blurple [&_a]:shadow-underline-black [&_a:hover]:shadow-highlight-franklin dark:[&_a:hover]:shadow-highlight-franklin dark:[&_a]:shadow-underline-white" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "FK Roman Standard", Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">Read more <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2022/9/30/23379246/nord-stream-pipeline-leaks-methane-emissions-oil-gas-disaster">here</a></p></div><div class="duet--article--article-body-component" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box;"></div><div class="duet--article--article-body-component" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box;"></div></div></div><p class="duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph mb-20 font-fkroman text-18 -tracking-1 leading-160 dark:text-white selection:bg-franklin-20 dark:selection:bg-blurple [&_a]:shadow-underline-black [&_a:hover]:shadow-highlight-franklin dark:[&_a:hover]:shadow-highlight-franklin dark:[&_a]:shadow-underline-white" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "FK Roman Standard", Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 20px;"><br /></p></div><p><br /></p></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7282984519467580072.post-24866469029674768312022-09-16T18:17:00.003+08:002022-09-16T18:17:19.925+08:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 15 by ISW <p> <strong style="border: 0px; color: #666666; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 18px;">Kateryna Stepanenko, Katherine Lawlor, Grace Mappes, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan</span></strong></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #666666; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 18px;">September 15, 9:30 pm ET</span></strong></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #666666; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 18px;"><br /></span></strong></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #666666; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 18px;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </strong><a data-mce-href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</strong></a><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.</strong></span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #666666; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 18px;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian forces are continuing counteroffensive operations in eastern Ukraine, increasingly pressuring Russian positions and logistics lines in eastern Kharkiv, northern Luhansk, and eastern Donetsk oblasts.</strong> Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces are continuing ground operations southwest of Izyum, near Lyman, and on the east bank of the Oskil River, reportedly compelling Russian forces to withdraw from some areas in eastern Ukraine and reinforce others.[1] Russian forces in eastern Ukraine will likely struggle to hold their defensive lines if Ukrainian forces continue to push farther east.</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #666666; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 18px;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Kremlin is responding to the defeat around Kharkiv Oblast by doubling down on crypto-mobilization rather than setting conditions for general mobilization. </strong>Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov called on all federal subjects to initiate “self-mobilization” and not wait on the Kremlin to declare martial law.<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[2]</strong> Kadyrov claimed that each federal subject must prove its readiness to help Russia by recruiting at least 1,000 servicemen instead of delivering speeches and conducting fruitless public events. Russian propagandist Margarita Simonyan echoed the need for Russians to volunteer to join the war effort, and several loyalist Russian governors publicly supported Kadyrov’s speech.[3] The Russian-appointed head of occupied Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, announced the formation of two volunteer battalions on the peninsula in support of Kadyrov’s calls.[4]</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #666666; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 18px;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The defeat around Kharkiv Oblast prompted the Kremlin to announce a Russia-wide recruitment campaign. </strong>Kremlin officials and state media had not previously made country-wide recruitment calls but had instead tasked local officials and outlets to generate forces ostensibly on their own initiative. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov vaguely welcomed the creation of the battalions on July 12, while 47 loyalist federal subjects advertised and funded the regional volunteer battalion recruitment campaign.[5] A prominent Russian milblogger and a supporter of general mobilization praised officials such as Kadyrov for taking the recruitment campaign from the ineffective Russian Ministry of Defense; this recruitment revamp is likely to secure more support for the Kremlin among nationalist figures who are increasingly critical of the Russian MoD, even if the drive does not generate large numbers of combat-effective troops.[6]</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #666666; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 18px;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Kremlin has likely abandoned its efforts to shield select federal subjects from recruitment drives, which may increase social tensions. </strong>ISW has previously reported that the Kremlin attempted to shield Moscow City residents from reports of the formation of the Moscow-based “Sobyaninsky Polk” volunteer regiment.[7] Russian opposition outlet <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Insider </em>noted that several groups in the republics of Buryatia, Kalmykia, Tyva, and Yakytia (Republic of Sakha) are publicly opposed to the Kremlin's emphasis on recruitment on an ethnic basis.[8] Simonyan’s statement about “self-mobilization” prompted numerous negative comments among Russians calling on Russian oligarchs to pay for and fight in the war.[9]</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #666666; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 18px;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Kremlin has almost certainly drained a large proportion of the forces originally stationed in Russian bases in former Soviet states since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February, likely weakening Russian influence in those states. </strong>A Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) investigation reported on September 14 that the Russian military has already deployed approximately 1500 Russian personnel from Russia’s 201st Military Base in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, to Ukraine since the full-scale invasion began and plans to deploy 600 more personnel from facilities in Dushanbe and Bokhatar, a southern Tajik city, in the future.[10] RFE/RL additionally reported on September 13 that Russia has likely redeployed approximately 300 Tuvan troops from the Russian Kant Air Base in Kyrgyzstan to fight in Ukraine at varying points since late 2021.[11]</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #666666; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 18px;">The withdrawals from the Central Asian states are noteworthy in the context of border clashes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Tajik and Kyrgyz border guards exchanged fire in three separate incidents on September 14, killing at least two people.[12] The uptick in violence between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, both of which are members of the Russian-controlled Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), comes alongside renewed aggression by Azerbaijan against CSTO member state Armenia. Russian forces also withdrew 800 personnel from Armenia early in the war to replenish losses in Ukraine, as ISW has previously reported.[13]</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #666666; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 18px;">Key Takeaways</span></strong></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #666666; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 18px;"></span></strong></p><ul data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #666666; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.4; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 18px;">Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in eastern Ukraine.</span></strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 18px;">The Kremlin is responding to the defeat around Kharkiv Oblast by doubling down on crypto-mobilization, rather than setting conditions for general mobilization.</span></strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 18px;">The Kremlin has almost certainly drained a large proportion of the forces originally at Russian bases in former Soviet states since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February, likely weakening Russian influence in those states.</span></strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 18px;">Russian and Ukrainian sources reported Ukrainian ground attacks northwest of Kharkiv City, near the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River, and south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.</span></strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 18px;">Russian-appointed occupation officials and milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a landing at the Kinsburn Spit (a narrow peninsula of the Crimean Peninsula).</span></strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 18px;">Russian forces conducted limited ground assaults and are reinforcing positions on the Eastern Axis.</span></strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 18px;">The Russian proxy Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) is likely attempting to stop its administrators from fleeing ahead of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, demonstrating the bureaucratic fragility of the DNR.</span></strong></li></ul><div style="text-align: justify;"><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgmbdirWMi4dSMdmkXHP-g-TmJUq8vXsWQi1FNzQ3Pu5QI933MY3T9SjiaPiP4QQ-wipkf_c5bbK10SpAC-oJDq7EnnJ-FDNn01iNyUPjC8JCuwPvuUZ-sJK1oZJ-JJkbmOcP39x5S_wBVvTP3HNLT0uPjJrvAAf-hSxPcrroTcKUYy5C2KpswFatC4" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="3600" data-original-width="2550" height="267" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgmbdirWMi4dSMdmkXHP-g-TmJUq8vXsWQi1FNzQ3Pu5QI933MY3T9SjiaPiP4QQ-wipkf_c5bbK10SpAC-oJDq7EnnJ-FDNn01iNyUPjC8JCuwPvuUZ-sJK1oZJ-JJkbmOcP39x5S_wBVvTP3HNLT0uPjJrvAAf-hSxPcrroTcKUYy5C2KpswFatC4=w242-h267" width="242" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 18px;">We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.</span></em></strong></p><ul data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; line-height: 1.4; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 18px;">Ukrainian Counteroffensives—Southern and Eastern Ukraine</span></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 18px;">Russian Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine (comprised of one subordinate and two supporting efforts);</span></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 18px;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast</span></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 18px;">Russian Supporting Effort—Southern Axis</span></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 18px;">Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts</span></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 18px;">Activities in Russian-occupied Areas</span></li></ul><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 18px;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian Counteroffensives</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Ukrainian efforts to liberate Russian-occupied territories)</strong></span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 18px;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Eastern Ukraine:</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Vovchansk-Kupyansk-Izyum-Lyman Line)</strong></span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 18px;">Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in eastern Ukraine, setting conditions to drive deeper into the Russian rear in eastern Kharkiv and western Luhansk oblasts. A Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces expelled Russian forces from Sosnove on the north bank of the Siverskyi Donets River and are fortifying positions at the settlement.[14] The source also reported that Russian forces may have pulled out from Studenok immediately west of Sosnove to avoid encirclement.[15] Official Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces reinforced Russian positions in Lyman.[16] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the heavily reduced remnants of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) 2nd Army Corps 202nd and 204th Motorized Rifle Regiments were disbanded into reserves, possibly meaning that the remnants of these reduced elements reinforced the Russian Combat Army Reserve (BARS) elements fighting in Lyman.[17]</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 18px;">Ukrainian forces are reportedly advancing across the Oskil River in northern Kharkiv Oblast. A Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces are establishing bases and artillery positions throughout Kharkiv Oblast, including emplacing artillery in Hryanykivka on the east bank of the Oskil River near the R79 highway.[18] A confirmed Ukrainian position in Hryanykivka would indicate that the Russian frontline east of the Oskil River is weak and/or that Russian forces’ lines in this area are farther east of the Oskil River than previously assessed. ISW will continue collecting and reconciling data to refine our control of terrain assessment. A Russian source reported that Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups occasionally cross the Oskil River in unspecified areas.[19]</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 18px;">Ukrainian forces continued operations to disrupt Russian logistics in eastern Ukraine and pin Russian forces away from the frontlines. Ukrainian forces reportedly struck rear areas in occupied Luhansk Oblast, including Lysychansk, Svitlodarsk, Perevalsk, and Kadiivka, all situated along major Russian GLOCs.[20] Imagery shows the aftermath of a Ukrainian strike on a Russian base in Lysychansk.[21] Russian and Ukrainian sources engaged in artillery duels across the Kharkiv-Belgorod Oblast border.[22]</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 18px;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Southern Ukraine:</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Kherson Oblast)</strong></span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 18px;">Ukrainian military officials are continuing their operational silence regarding the progress of the southern counteroffensive, noting that Ukrainian forces are continuing to improve their tactical positions and are engaged in positional battles.[23] Ukrainian local sources stated that there is no official confirmation that Ukrainian forces have liberated Kyselivka northwest of Kherson City but noted receiving local reports that Russian forces are mining all of the roads in the settlement.[24] Ukrainian officials did not report changes in Russian troop composition, but social media footage showed a Tuva Oblast flag in Beryslav, which likely indicates that Russian forces are continuing to reinforce northern Kherson Oblast with regionally formed volunteer units.[25] Conventional Russian military units typically do not fly republic or federal subject flags.</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 18px;">Ukrainian military officials stated that Ukrainian forces are continuing their interdiction campaign, targeting Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) across the Inhulets and Dnipro Rivers.[26] Ukrainian military officials noted that Russian forces are continuing to transfer equipment across the Dnipro River, however.[27] Ukrainian forces reportedly struck areas of Russian manpower and equipment concentrations in the Kherson City suburbs and in Krynychanka (about 21km southeast of the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River).[28] The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command noted that Ukrainian forces damaged Russian ammunition depots in Sadove (about 15km southwest of Snihurivka) and Mykolaiv and Kherson raions, and struck the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) control center in Komyshany, northwest of Kherson City.[29] Ukraine’s Department of Strategic Communications (StratCom) reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian military base in Nova Kakhovka, and local footage and reports corroborated StratCom’s information.[30] Other social media reports noted Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions in Oleshky, on the left bank of the Dnipro River.[31]</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 18px;">Ukrainian and Russian sources indicated three areas of kinetic activity on September 15: northwest of Kherson City, near the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River, and south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border west of Vysokopillya. A Russian milblogger claimed that one Ukrainian reconnaissance and sabotage group drove down 25km southeast of the bridgehead to Charivne in a car without encountering any obstacles.[32] The milblogger added that Russian shelling decreased in Sukhyi Stavok (about 12km southeast of the bridgehead) and that Ukrainians are operating helicopters in the area, which may indicate that Russian forces have pulled back further from the bridgehead area. The milblogger noted that Russian forces continue to repel Ukrainian counterattacks on Davydiv Brid on the T2207 highway. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults from Arhanhelske on Ivanivka (west of Vysokopillya), while Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian airborne troops repelled Ukrainian counterattacks on Kostyrka and Novopetrivka.[33] Kherson Oblast Head Yaroslav Yanushevych stated that Ukrainian forces conducted evacuations from Myrolyubivka (southeast of Vysokopillya), which could indicate that Ukrainian forces have advanced to the settlement.[34] Both the Russian Defense Ministry and the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched missile strikes at Ukrainian positions on the Kherson Oblast border.[35]</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 18px;">Russian-appointed occupation officials and milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a landing at the Kinsburn Spit (a narrow peninsula of the Crimean Peninsula southwest of Kherson City) on September 14, but offered differing accounts. Several milbloggers amplified the claims of a single source that suggested Ukrainian forces conducted an unsuccessful amphibious landing at the Kinsburn Spit with five boats. The source also claimed that there was an unconfirmed report of a heliborne landing at the Iron Port in Lazurne, about 60km southwest of Kherson City.[36] Deputy Head of the Russian occupation administration in Kherson Oblast Kirill Stremousov claimed that Russian forces repelled the attempted landing and killed over 120 Ukrainian airborne troops at the Kinsburn Spit.[37] Another milblogger criticized Stremousov and pointed out that his sources within Russian units in the area did not witness or repel any Ukrainian landing attempts and that Stremousov did not present any visual evidence supporting his claim.[38]</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 18px;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi9N9GyvjS4qG-Yvo7Yr0xxf0POzBp2IYNU0bXF0DZyl9-3-UGiQjyeZ0aXCbhZl17VSErthVoONmW6tkXWns0DAg6gw-vtKtuPA0uh1rd-xPJIktO_p3A0g7GEnTtTSzw1y-RbvJwb6kA2A6imkR7khXffdweMrlD9cWawAJ4wHnskeeh8d7PYAkQK" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="3996" data-original-width="2550" height="350" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi9N9GyvjS4qG-Yvo7Yr0xxf0POzBp2IYNU0bXF0DZyl9-3-UGiQjyeZ0aXCbhZl17VSErthVoONmW6tkXWns0DAg6gw-vtKtuPA0uh1rd-xPJIktO_p3A0g7GEnTtTSzw1y-RbvJwb6kA2A6imkR7khXffdweMrlD9cWawAJ4wHnskeeh8d7PYAkQK=w223-h350" width="223" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; font-weight: normal !important; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">Russian Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine</span></span></strong></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; font-weight: normal !important; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)</strong></span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">Russian forces conducted limited ground assaults across the Eastern Axis and continued routine fire along the line of contact on September 15.[39] Both Ukrainian and Russian official sources confirmed fighting in Spirne (east of Siversk) and Mayorsk (south of Bakhmut).[40] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces captured Mayorsk, though ISW cannot verify this claim.[41] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground assaults against Mayorsk, southeast of Bakhmut, and southwest of Donetsk City.[42]</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">Russian forces are reinforcing positions along the Eastern Axis, likely due to extensive combat losses. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are moving reserves from 3rd Army Corps volunteer battalions and remnants of units previously operating in Kharkiv Oblast to reinforce the Donetsk and Zaporizhia Oblast frontlines.[43] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that the Russian 137th Airborne Regiment (subordinate to the 106th Airborne Division) sustained significant combat losses in the Bakhmut area and cannot continue combat operations without additional unspecified measures (likely meaning reconstitution).[44]</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20September%2015%2C2022.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20September%2015%2C2022.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20September%2015%2C2022.png" height="791" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20September%2015%2C2022.png" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; cursor: default; height: auto; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; width: 720px;" width="500" /></span></a></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; font-weight: normal !important; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Supporting Effort</span></strong><strong data-mce-style="font-size: 13.008px;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; font-weight: normal !important; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">—</span></strong><strong data-mce-style="font-size: 13.008px;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; font-weight: normal !important; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Southern Axis</span></strong><strong data-mce-style="font-size: 13.008px;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)</strong></span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">Russian forces continued to strike Ukrainian hydraulic structures in Kryvyi Rih and other infrastructure in Ukraine on September 15. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast officials reported that Russian forces again targeted unspecified hydraulic structures in Kryvyi Rih, and Russian sources published footage of smoke claiming that Russian strikes damaged an unspecified dam on the Inhulets River on September 15.[45] Russian forces are likely continuing to strike Ukrainian dams on the Inhulets River to raise flood levels in an effort to disrupt the Ukrainian bridgehead over the river in northern Kherson Oblast and threaten Ukrainian logistics lines in the same way that Ukrainian forces are targeting Russian crossings of the Dnipro River.[46] Russian milbloggers amplified footage of large-scale explosions in the cities of Uman, Zaporizhia, and Vinnytsia, as well as in Odesa Oblast.[47] Russian forces also launched an Onyx cruise missile from a Bastion coastal missile complex and a Kh-59 missile fired from an Su-35 aircraft at an open area in Mykolaiv Oblast.[48] Social media users reported witnessing the activation of Russian air defense systems in Yevpatoria, Crimea.[49]</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20September%2015%2C2022.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20September%2015%2C2022.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20September%2015%2C2022.png" height="784" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20September%2015%2C2022.png" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; cursor: default; height: auto; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; width: 720px;" width="500" /></span></a></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; font-weight: normal !important; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)</strong></span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">Russian military leadership continues to pull newly-mobilized forces from every possible source but is unlikely to be able to meaningfully increase Russian combat power with those forces. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on September 15 that the Russian government lifted restrictions on conscription for large families, suggesting that multiple sons from the same family could be forced to fight in Ukraine.[50] The Ukrainian mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, reported on September 14 that Russian forces are promoting Russian military service in occupied territories such as Melitopol.[51] Forcibly or even willingly-mobilized Ukrainian civilians without military experience who are ordered to fight their better-trained countrymen are unlikely to significantly enhance Russian combat power in Ukraine.</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on September 15 that the Russian Military Construction Complex is building a new, modern “military town” in Sernovodskoye in the Chechen Republic.[52] The town will reportedly contain over 50 facilities to accommodate Chechnya-based units.</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Federal%20Subjects%20Generating%20Volunteer%20Units%20As%20Of%20September%2015%2C%202022.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Federal%20Subjects%20Generating%20Volunteer%20Units%20As%20Of%20September%2015%2C%202022.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Federal%20Subjects%20Generating%20Volunteer%20Units%20As%20Of%20September%2015%2C%202022.png" height="455" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Federal%20Subjects%20Generating%20Volunteer%20Units%20As%20Of%20September%2015%2C%202022.png" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; cursor: default; height: auto; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; width: 720px;" width="500" /></span></a></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; font-weight: normal !important; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Activity in Russian-occupied Areas</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: consolidate administrative control of occupied areas; set conditions for potential annexation into the Russian Federation or some other future political arrangement of Moscow’s choosing)</strong></span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">The Russian proxy Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) is likely attempting to stop its administrators from fleeing ahead of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, demonstrating the bureaucratic fragility of the DNR. The DNR’s State Defense Committee extended one-time injury payments of 3 million rubles and one-time death payments of 5 million rubles to the families of officers, civil servants, and employees of the DNR’s Ministry of Emergency Situations killed in the line of work, the first time ISW has observed DNR civil servants being promised payment in the event of their injury or death in the war.[53] The DNR is likely attempting to incentivize its employees to remain in place to prevent a collapse in local governance as Ukrainian forces advance. Russian occupation forces have struggled to staff local administrations in occupied Ukrainian territory since the invasion began due to a lack of willing Ukrainian collaborators and competent bureaucrats.</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.</strong><span data-mce-style="font-size: 13.008px;" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></span></p><div data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><hr align="left" size="1" style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border: none; cursor: default; height: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" width="33%" /></div><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[1] https://t.me/rybar/38811; https://t.me/rybar/38790; https://t.me/rybar/38840; https://t.me/nm_dnr/9013; https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/17672; https://t.me/epoddubny/12301; https://t.me/sashakots/35673; https://t.me/sashakots/35659; https://t.me/sashakots/35666</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[2] https://t.me/kommunist/9450; https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/2822</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[3] https://t.me/margaritasimonyan/12050; https://ura dot news/news/1052587297</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[4] https://t.me/Aksenov82/1469; https://t.me/kommunist/9459; https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/17678; https://eadaily dot com/ru/news/2022/09/15/v-krymu-tozhe-nachali-formirovat-dobrovolcheskie-batalony</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[5] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-28; https://tass dot com/politics/1478839</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[6] https://t.me/strelkovii/3249</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[7] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-24</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[8] https://theins dot ru/politika/254329</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[9] https://24tv dot ua/ru/simonjan-sdelala-novoe-zajavlenie-zovet-rossijan-sobirat-dengi_n2157987</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[10] https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-troops-tajik-base-redeployed-ukraine/32033791.html</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[11] https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-kyrgyzstan-base-troops-redeployed/32031647.html</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[12] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/world/fresh-clash-erupts-between-kyrgyz-tajik-border-guards-2022-09-14/</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[13] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-13; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-13</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[14] https://t.me/rybar/38811</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[15] https://t.me/rybar/38811</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[16] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HbJHe0hDck; https://t.me/pavlokyrylenko_donoda/4882; https://t.me/nm_dnr/9013; https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/17672; https://t.me/epoddubny/12301; https://t.me/sashakots/35673</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[17] <ins cite="mailto:George%20Barros" datetime="2022-09-16T00:40" style="border: 0px; color: green; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0hCejE9MTF5ywGLZs3SfD2y2aWbL4sZqWvnYgopdJWfk8nh3tGVyXRMrjkixw7WNol</ins>; https://lenta dot ru/news/2022/09/12/krasnyy_liman/</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[18] https://t.me/rybar/38840</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[19] https://t.me/rybar/38790</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[20] https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/5759; https://t.me/millnr/9441; https://t.me/kommunist/9443; https://t.me/kommunist/9440; https://t.me/miroshnik_r/8708; https://t.me/kommunist/9438; https://t.me/mod_russia/19863; https://t.me/millnr/9443; https://t.me/millnr/9441</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[21] https://twitter.com/typicaldonetsk/status/1570345103025405952; https://twitter.com/Cosmonaut19/status/1570371173313310720</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[22] https://t.me/kommunist/9458; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/64024; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/40407; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/40404; https://t.me/kommunist/9456; https://t.me/rusich_army/5169; https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/17693; https://t.me/rusich_army/5172; https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1570444332947341313; https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1570342821634387968/photo/1; https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1570262736311046145; https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1570442667095375872; https://twitter.com/Minodoro/status/1570443494350622721; https://t.me/rybar/38835; https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1570465387677884420?s=20&t=agnWKMZ7gbuTZTEv0vHUoA; https://twitter.com/TexAgg04/status/1570454700516061185?s=20&t=agnWKMZ7gbuTZTEv0vHUoA;</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[23] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0hCejE9MTF5ywGLZs3SfD2y2aWbL4sZqWvnYgopdJWfk8nh3tGVyXRMrjkixw7WNol; https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=380532447618182; attacks. RUAF attacked the front and rear areas with aviation. https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=582024966937795</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[24] https://www.facebook.com/sergey.khlan/posts/pfbid02VNV12o6Qi1m64GzXRm3GJ4f1Anhm8UBisfpLf3QXoHzJhT164Q44j5SPnVEMBhFPl\; https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1570397840551350275; https://t.me/hueviyherson/25949</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[25] https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1570306379335827457</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[26] https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=380532447618182; https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=582024966937795</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[27] https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=380532447618182</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[28] https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=582024966937795; https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=380532447618182</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[29] https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=582024966937795</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[30] https://t.me/hueviyherson/25953; https://t.me/hueviyherson/25945; https://t.me/AFUStratCom/6636</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[31] https://t.me/hueviyherson/25912</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[32] https://t.me/rybar/38817</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[33] https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=582024966937795; https://t.me/rybar/38827</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[34] https://t.me/khersonskaODA/991</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[35] https://t.me/mod_russia/19863; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0hCejE9MTF5ywGLZs3SfD2y2aWbL4sZqWvnYgopdJWfk8nh3tGVyXRMrjkixw7WNol; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0hvNPTZfMszbNwzXyddGeMQZXZ8akAVKzgMUjewVmQ1EaWNZYeZs6oB5WVs3jzBNtl</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[36] https://t.me/rsotmdivision/992; https://t.me/vysokygovorit/9411; https://t.me/vysokygovorit/9410; https://t.me/rsotmdivision/993 ; https://t.me/rsotmdivision/997; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/40379 </span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[37] https://t.me/rian_ru/177844; https://t.me/miroshnik_r/8710; https://tass dot ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/15755683; https://t.me/Stremousov_Kirill/320</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[38] https://t.me/grey_zone/15032</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[39] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0hCejE9MTF5ywGLZs3SfD2y2aWbL4sZqWvnYgopdJWfk8nh3tGVyXRMrjkixw7WNol; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0hvNPTZfMszbNwzXyddGeMQZXZ8akAVKzgMUjewVmQ1EaWNZYeZs6oB5WVs3jzBNtl; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/5758; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/5758</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[40] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0hCejE9MTF5ywGLZs3SfD2y2aWbL4sZqWvnYgopdJWfk8nh3tGVyXRMrjkixw7WNol; https://t.me/mod_russia/19863; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0hvNPTZfMszbNwzXyddGeMQZXZ8akAVKzgMUjewVmQ1EaWNZYeZs6oB5WVs3jzBNtl; https://t.me/TRO_DPR/7549; https://t.me/TRO_DPR/7548; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/40384</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[41] https://t.me/TRO_DPR/7549; https://t.me/TRO_DPR/7548; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/40384</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[42] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0hvNPTZfMszbNwzXyddGeMQZXZ8akAVKzgMUjewVmQ1EaWNZYeZs6oB5WVs3jzBNtl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0hCejE9MTF5ywGLZs3SfD2y2aWbL4sZqWvnYgopdJWfk8nh3tGVyXRMrjkixw7WNol</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[43] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0hvNPTZfMszbNwzXyddGeMQZXZ8akAVKzgMUjewVmQ1EaWNZYeZs6oB5WVs3jzBNtl</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[44] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0hvNPTZfMszbNwzXyddGeMQZXZ8akAVKzgMUjewVmQ1EaWNZYeZs6oB5WVs3jzBNtl; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/5758</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[45] https://t.me/rybar/38823; https://t.me/rybar/38832; https://t.me/rybar/38825; https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/1854; https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/1853; https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/1848; https://t.me/mykola_lukashuk/1500 ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0hCejE9MTF5ywGLZs3SfD2y2aWbL4sZqWvnYgopdJWfk8nh3tGVyXRMrjkixw7WNol</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[46] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-14</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[47] https://t.me/rybar/38803; https://t.me/rybar/38791; https://t.me/rybar/38792</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[48] https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=380532447618182; https://t.me/senkevichonline/2498</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[49] https://t.me/hueviyherson/25953; https://t.me/milinfolive/90549; https://t.me/rybar/38828</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[50]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0hCejE9MTF5ywGLZs3SfD2y2aWbL4sZqWvnYgopdJWfk8nh3tGVyXRMrjkixw7WNol</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[51] https://t.me/ivan_fedorov_melitopol/562</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[52] https://t.me/mod_russia/19867</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">[53] https://t.me/TRO_DPR/7553; https://t.me/dnronline/78609</span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;">You can read more <a href="https://www.iswresearch.org/">here</a></span></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal !important; font-variant-east-asian: normal !important; font-variant-numeric: normal !important; line-height: 18px;"> </span></p></div><br /><br /><p></p></div><br /><br /></span></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7282984519467580072.post-77267998044250329992019-11-12T23:16:00.004+08:002019-11-12T23:16:44.565+08:00First F-35 Sale To UAE Could Still Be Years Away<span class="author-name" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://aviationweek.com/author/steve-trimble" rel="author" style="color: #0e5f8b; text-decoration-line: none;">Steve Trimble</a> </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"></span><strong style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">| </strong><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"></span><span class="source-name" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; font-style: italic; font-weight: bold;">Aviation Week & Space Technology</span><br />
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During the same week as the Dubai Airshow in November 2009, <span class="keyword_link"><a href="http://awin.aviationweek.com/OrganizationProfiles.aspx?orgId=27191" style="color: #0e5f8b; text-decoration-line: none;" title="Lockheed Martin Corp.">Lockheed Martin</a></span> celebrated the first flight of the AF-1 test aircraft for the <span class="keyword_link"><a href="http://awin.aviationweek.com/ProgramProfileDetails.aspx?pgId=613&pgName=Lockheed+Martin+F-35+JSF" style="color: #0e5f8b; text-decoration-line: none;" title="Lockheed Martin F-35 (JSF)">F-35</a></span> development program, and a top air force official in the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—Brig. Gen. Ibrahim Naser Alalawi—publicly declared his “hope” that his country would procure a fifth-generation fighter “within a couple years.” A decade later, Lockheed has delivered more than 435 F-35s to eight countries, but none so far to the UAE. </div>
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With the 2019 edition of the biannual air show ready to run from Nov. 17-21, the UAE’s search for a new stealth fighter may be set to take nearly another decade. In the last two years, the UAE has commissioned a billion-dollar upgrade program for the air force’s <span class="keyword_link"><a href="http://awin.aviationweek.com/ProgramProfileDetails.aspx?pgId=611&pgName=Lockheed+Martin+F-16" style="color: #0e5f8b; text-decoration-line: none;" title="Lockheed Martin F-16">F-16</a></span> Block 60s and launched a service-life extension program for its Mirage 2000s. The combination gives the UAE the flexibility to defer one of the world’s largest fleet replacement programs for fighters by several years. </div>
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“It certainly looks like the UAE is trying to skip a generation and coast on their F-16 Block 60 and Mirage 2000 force until they can get F-35s, which will likely be around 2026 or 2027,” says Richard Aboulafia, vice president of analysis for the Teal Group consultancy. That timeline assumes orders by the UAE around 2024, followed by deliveries to a U.S. training base in 2026 and transfer to the UAE around a year later, Aboulafia says. </div>
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<a href="https://aviationweek.com/site-files/aviationweek.com/files/uploads/2019/09/30/DUB-FIGHTER-1_US-Air-Force.jpg" style="color: #0e5f8b; text-decoration-line: none;"></a></div>
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<a href="https://aviationweek.com/site-files/aviationweek.com/files/uploads/2019/09/30/DUB-FIGHTER-1_US-Air-Force.jpg" style="color: #0e5f8b; text-decoration-line: none;"><img alt="" src="https://aviationweek.com/site-files/aviationweek.com/files/uploads/2019/09/30/DUB-FIGHTER-1_US-Air-Force.jpg" style="border: 0px; display: block; height: 242px; width: 480px;" title="A UAE Mirage 2000-9, F-16 Block 60 and a U.S. Air Force F-35A fly formation over the Persian Gulf, but upgrades for the UAE fleet likely mean a long-sought F-35A acquisition could still be several years away. Credit: U.S. Air Force" /><div class="image-description" style="background: rgb(227, 227, 226); clear: both; color: black; font-family: Arial, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.4; padding: 5px;">
A UAE Mirage 2000-9, F-16 Block 60 and a U.S. Air Force F-35A fly formation over the Persian Gulf, but upgrades for the UAE fleet likely mean a long-sought F-35A acquisition could still be several years away. Credit: U.S. Air Force</div>
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It was only two years ago that the UAE’s potential F-35 order appeared more imminent. During the first year of U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, officials succeeded in reopening stalled negotiations with the Gulf Cooperation Council on several arms sales. “The Obama administration would not talk about the F-35” to countries in the Middle East, says Derek Bisaccio, a regional market analyst for Forecast International. “That seemed to change when Trump took office.” U.S. defense officials openly discussed the “ongoing,” early talks with the UAE about a potential F-35 deal during the last Dubai Airshow in 2017. </div>
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The timing of the new sales discussions also followed a pattern of U.S. policy. The first F-35I ordered by Israel arrived at Nevatim AB in December 2016. The U.S. government generally offers Israel at least a five-year head start on new fighter technology, then allows other governments in the regions to import the aircraft, Aboulafia says. </div>
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The F-35 may not be the only fighter on the UAE’s long-term shopping list. Alalawi displayed a picture of the F-35 as he expressed hope in a fifth-generation fighter acquisition in 2009, but the UAE is not exclusively tied to the American fighter. In 2017, the UAE government signed a memorandum of understanding with the Russian Aircraft Corp. to collaborate on the design of a lightweight, next-generation fighter. Neither side has publicly moved the relationship forward over the last two years.</div>
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“There’s been precious few details on what the concept of the aircraft would be,” Bisaccio says. “This could well prove in time for the UAE a bargaining chip in negotiations with the United States.”</div>
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The UAE has been careful to avoid reliance on a single government for weapons. The current fighter fleet is split between the U.S.-made F-16s and French-built Mirage 2000s. That policy could continue even if the UAE signs a deal in the long term for F-35s.</div>
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<a href="https://aviationweek.com/site-files/aviationweek.com/files/uploads/2019/09/30/DUB-FIGHTER-2_US-Air-Force.jpg" style="color: #0e5f8b; text-decoration-line: none;"><img alt="" src="https://aviationweek.com/site-files/aviationweek.com/files/uploads/2019/09/30/DUB-FIGHTER-2_US-Air-Force.jpg" style="border: 0px; display: block; height: 319px; width: 480px;" title="A line of UAE Mirage 2000-9s stand on the runway at Nellis AFB, Nevada. Along with the F-16 Block 16s, the Mirage 2000s could remain at the heart of the UAE fighter fleet for at least another decade. Credit: U.S. Air Force" /><div class="image-description" style="background: rgb(227, 227, 226); clear: both; color: black; font-family: Arial, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.4; padding: 5px;">
A line of UAE Mirage 2000-9s stand on the runway at Nellis AFB, Nevada. Along with the F-16 Block 16s, the Mirage 2000s could remain at the heart of the UAE fighter fleet for at least another decade. Credit: U.S. Air Force</div>
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“There’s still a chance the UAE Air Force is going to give a little bit to everybody,” says Michel Merluzeau, director of Aerospace Market Analysis for AirInsight. “If they acquire an F-35, I think they’d go with a micro-fleet. Maybe a wing: 30-40 aircraft. It would be a mistake to think they’d buy an equivalent number of fighters as they did with the F-16.”</div>
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The most logical alternative to the F-35 for the UAE could be the <span class="keyword_link"><a href="http://awin.aviationweek.com/ProgramProfileDetails.aspx?pgId=667&pgName=Dassault+Rafale" style="color: #0e5f8b; text-decoration-line: none;" title="Dassault Rafale">Rafale</a></span>, <span class="keyword_link"><a href="http://awin.aviationweek.com/OrganizationProfiles.aspx?orgId=33459" style="color: #0e5f8b; text-decoration-line: none;" title="Dassault Aviation">Dassault</a></span>’s successor to the UAE Mirage 2000 fleet. Block upgrades, such as the F4 and F5, will introduce teaming capabilities with unmanned combat air vehicles, along with new weapons and sensors. </div>
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For the moment, the UAE has time to wait and consider its options. The service-life extension for the Mirage 2000 fleet provides the UAE with at least a decade to deliver a replacement. </div>
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“When you look at the [Mirage 2000s], these are near [the] Rafale in terms of avionics and weapon systems,” Merluzeau says. “They have a good 10 years left.”</div>
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Read more at: <a href="https://aviationweek.com/" style="background-color: transparent;">https://aviationweek.com/</a></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7282984519467580072.post-82383830350651604232019-11-12T23:13:00.001+08:002019-11-12T23:13:09.118+08:00KAI Begins Building KF-X Prototype For 2022 Flight<span class="author-name" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://aviationweek.com/author/bperrett" rel="author" style="color: #0e5f8b; outline: 0px;">Bradley Perrett</a> and <a href="https://aviationweek.com/author/kim-minseok-0" rel="author" style="color: #0e5f8b; text-decoration-line: none;">Kim Minseok</a> </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"></span><strong style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">| </strong><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"></span><span class="source-name" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; font-style: italic; font-weight: bold;">Aviation Week & Space Technology</span><br />
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Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) has begun building the first prototype for the KF-X fighter program, following completion of the critical design review in September. Development is running on schedule, a source close to the program says.</div>
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Meanwhile, South Korea’s defense technology organization and Hanwha have flight-tested a technology-demonstration fighter radar in cooperation with Elta Systems, while proceeding in parallel with full-scale development of the sensor for the KF-X.</div>
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Rollout of the first KF-X prototype is due in June 2021 and its first flight in May 2022, the source says, giving more precise timings than those that have been published. </div>
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Production of the first aircraft, a single-seater, is beginning with the forward fuselage. There will be four single-seat and two twin-seat prototypes. These aircraft will be built to the Block 1 standard, cleared for air-to-air missions only. The Block 2 will introduce air-to-surface capability. Although the KF-X is designed for eventual development of a stealthy version, the government has given no indication of when that may happen.</div>
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The first flight-test aircraft is following the strength-test airframe into manufacturing. KAI began building that static test structure in March.</div>
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South Korea requires 120 KF-Xs to replace <span class="keyword_link"><a href="http://awin.aviationweek.com/OrganizationProfiles.aspx?orgId=27191" style="color: #0e5f8b; text-decoration-line: none;" title="Lockheed Martin Corp.">Lockheed Martin</a></span> <span class="keyword_link"><a href="http://awin.aviationweek.com/ProgramProfileDetails.aspx?pgId=611&pgName=Lockheed+Martin+F-16" style="color: #0e5f8b; text-decoration-line: none;" title="Lockheed Martin F-16">F-16s</a></span>. Indonesia is a junior partner in the program, with a reported requirement for 50 aircraft. </div>
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<a href="https://aviationweek.com/site-files/aviationweek.com/files/uploads/2019/10/24/DF-KFX_Bradley-Perrett-AW%26ST.jpg" style="color: #0e5f8b; text-decoration-line: none;"></a></div>
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<a href="https://aviationweek.com/site-files/aviationweek.com/files/uploads/2019/10/24/DF-KFX_Bradley-Perrett-AW%26ST.jpg" style="color: #0e5f8b; text-decoration-line: none;"><img alt="Fighter" src="https://aviationweek.com/site-files/aviationweek.com/files/uploads/2019/10/24/DF-KFX_Bradley-Perrett-AW%26ST.jpg" style="border: 0px; display: block; height: 271px; width: 480px;" title="KAI displayed this full-scale mockup of the KF-X at the Seoul show. Credit: Bradley Perrett/AW&ST" /><div class="image-description" style="background: rgb(227, 227, 226); clear: both; color: black; font-family: Arial, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.4; padding: 5px;">
KAI displayed this full-scale mockup of the KF-X at the Seoul show. Credit: Bradley Perrett/AW&ST</div>
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The twin-engine fighter is powered by the <span class="keyword_link"><a href="http://awin.aviationweek.com/OrganizationProfiles.aspx?orgId=31624" style="color: #0e5f8b; text-decoration-line: none;" title="General Electric Co.">General Electric</a></span> F414-GE-400K turbofan generating 22,000 lb. thrust. Maximum speed will be 2,200 kph (1,370 mph), according to KAI, revealing the figure for the first time since exploratory development. Payload will be 7.7 metric tons (17,000 lb.) and ferry range 2,900 km (1,800 mi.), it says.</div>
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The air force is due in 2024 to review test results and, if satisfied, advise the defense ministry to issue a production contract, says the source. Manufacturing of delivery aircraft will then go ahead while flight testing proceeds to a targeted completion in June 2026, winding up Block 1 development about 10.5 years after program launch. Then deliveries are supposed to begin in late 2026.</div>
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KAI displayed a full-scale mockup at the Seoul Aerospace and Defense Exhibition, held on Oct. 15-19. The mockup shows no changes from the preliminary design that the air force approved in July 2018.</div>
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The KF-X is initially being designed to use the MBDA Meteor long-range and Diehl IRIS-T short-range air-to-air missiles. Washington routinely withholds permission for integration of U.S. air-to-air missiles in the first few years of a foreign fighter program, so Seoul will seek approval for the work after the first flight, says a South Korean government source who is close to the program. The <span class="keyword_link"><a href="http://awin.aviationweek.com/OrganizationProfiles.aspx?orgId=14579" style="color: #0e5f8b; text-decoration-line: none;" title="Raytheon Co.">Raytheon</a></span> AIM-120 medium-range and AIM-9 short-range weapons are presumably the desired weapons.</div>
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More than 1,000 engineers are working at KAI on the KF-X. One issue debated before program launch in late 2015 was whether KAI could find it had insufficient engineering resources to develop the aircraft, which has an empty weight of 12 metric tons. The first source says the problem has not arisen.</div>
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The radar demonstrator, mounted in Elta’s <span class="keyword_link"><a href="http://awin.aviationweek.com/ProgramProfileDetails.aspx?pgId=634&pgName=Boeing+737NG" style="color: #0e5f8b; text-decoration-line: none;" title="Boeing 737NG">Boeing 737</a></span> testbed, was flown 10 times in Israel and six times in South Korea, says a researcher from the technology organization, the Agency for Defense Development (ADD).</div>
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The ADD is leading development of the radar. Officially, Hanwha is contracted for manufacturing, but officials close to this work say the company is also helping in development.</div>
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The radar program was committed to full-scale development before technology demonstration. The intended production radar passed its critical design review in May 2019. Development is due for completion in 2026, so it will be ready just as KF-X deliveries are due to begin.</div>
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The radar has an active, electronically scanned array (AESA). In 2014, before KF-X full-scale development began, the government’s Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute said it would use gallium-nitride semiconductors. It will have about 1,000 transmitter-receiver modules, local media say.</div>
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Building and testing the technology demonstrator is the first phase, which includes software for air targets. The second phase will produce software for ground and sea targets, Lee Bumseok, the head of the ADD division handling the project, said at a seminar ahead of the exhibition. This phase is due to be completed in October 2021. A prototype radar is due to be fitted in a KF-X prototype in 2023. </div>
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South Korea has not previously developed a fighter radar. It has built indigenous naval and ground radars, including some with AESAs, but its experience looked so limited that foreign companies expected one of them would provide the technological foundation for the program.</div>
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Instead, the ADD was authorized to create a fully South Korean radar. Elta is supposed to play a relatively minor supporting role, but it is clearly positioned to step up its involvement should the program run into trouble.</div>
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Read more at <a href="https://aviationweek.com/" style="background-color: transparent;">https://aviationweek.com/</a></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7282984519467580072.post-15667895960146291862019-10-04T16:08:00.002+08:002019-10-04T16:08:36.792+08:00South Korea joins Asia’s Carrier Race<div class="td-author-by" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; display: inline; font-family: "Open Sans", arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; margin-right: 2px;">
By</div>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: "Open Sans", arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;"> </span><a href="https://asianmilitaryreview.com/author/benho/" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: "Open Sans", arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; font-weight: 700; margin-right: 3px; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none;">Ben Ho</a><br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img alt="Dokdo-class vessels" height="267" src="https://asianmilitaryreview.com/wp-content/uploads/1-south-koreas-dodko-classs-696x465.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400" /></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; font-style: italic; text-align: left;">Dokdo-class vessels<br /></span><div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #222222; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 26px; margin-bottom: 26px; text-align: start;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">The Republic of Korea (ROK) recently announced that it plans to launch by 2030 a large-deck amphibious-warfare ship that could handle Short Take Off and Vertical Landing (STOVL) aircraft.</strong></em></div>
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With a displacement of 30,000 tons, the new Landing Platform Helicopter (LPH) is over twice the size of its predecessors, the 14,500-ton Dokdo-class vessels, and is expected to have significantly more capabilities. For instance, its aviation complement could number 20 STOVL jets (likely to be the Lockheed Martin F-35B Lightning) on top of other air assets, and this is a step-change from the Dokdos with their dozen helicopters. This development is part of an ambitious five-year naval build-up unveiled in mid-August that includes ballistic missile defence-capable Arleigh Burke type Aegis destroyers and submarines armed for land attack. LPX-II, the official name for the ROK’s new capital ship, marks the first time the republic is pursuing a true aircraft carrier-type platform. What then are the main drivers behind this keystone acquisition?</div>
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South Korea’s Ministry of National Defence stated in no uncertain terms that the naval build-up has North Korea in mind. Indeed, its northern neighbour has been an existential threat for much of its history. Should a second Korean War break out, ROK airfields could be prime targets for the much-feared artillery, tactical ballistic missiles, and special operations forces of the Korea’s People Army (KPA). Having a carrier force would mitigate this threat. Should its land bases be knocked out, South Korea could turn to sea-based airpower for one of its ‘second-strike’ options. it could be argued that the relatively small air wing of an LPX-II militates against it shaping the battlespace to any significant degree. However, this line of reasoning ignores the fact that the flat-top could bring about disproportionate strategic effects. A carrier force could use its mobility and speed to complicate the enemy’s calculus, and trying to locate one (or two) of them roaming off the North Korean coasts in the Japan and Yellow Seas is essentially trying to find a needle in the haystack. Matters are not helped by the KPA’s anaemic naval and air-defence capabilities.</div>
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Another driver behind the LPX-II acquisition would be the increasing uncertainty clouding the north-east Asian geo-strategic environment. China is becoming increasingly assertive in its environs and the People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLAN) is growing from strength to strength. In addition, South Korea’s ties with Japan are at its lowest ebb in recent times. In August, the ROK ended a military intelligence-sharing deal with Japan in a tit-for-tat move against trade sanctions imposed by Tokyo a month earlier. Soon after the termination of the deal, the South Korean military launched an exercise aimed at demonstrating control over the Dokdos that Japan also claims. Even though these islets are within range of South Korean land-based aircraft, the highly maritime nature of this spat means that there would be a premium placed on sea-based airpower during any crisis. For instance, the latter offers various tactical advantages over its shore-based counterpart, such as longer loiter time in the area of operations. It also bears consideration that the LPX-II was revealed after Japan said its Izumo-class “helicopter destroyers” could be converted to carriers. And just over a week after the LPX-II’s unveiling, Tokyo officially announced that it will buy the F-35B from the United States. Are these developments too much of a coincidence perhaps?</div>
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All in all, continual inter-state tensions are probably the main factor driving South Korea’s aircraft carrier ambitions. Moreover, with the ROK gazing increasingly towards the ‘blue waters’ and concomitantly out-of-area operations, having a carrier would stand South Korea in good stead should it partake in a major humanitarian-assistance/disaster-relief mission given that the vessel could then be a key node in such an operation. In summery, the utility of a carrier-like platform invariably expands a nation’s military toolbox, and it makes for a good hedge against the uncertainties of the regional security environment. There is arguably a prestige element to the LPX-II acquisition as well. Flat-tops are the ‘Queen of the Waves’, and owning (and being able to operate) them invariably adds to a country’s standing amongst the league of nations. Indeed, possessing an aircraft carrier seems to be par the course for medium powers these days, with the likes of Australia, India and Japan already having or working towards such a capability. While South Korea’s current Dokdo-class vessels are certainly aviation-capable, they are too small in size and too limited in capability to be categorised even as ‘quasi-carriers’. The LPX-II, however, would change that state of affairs.</div>
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Read more at: <a href="https://asianmilitaryreview.com/2019/10/south-korea-joins-asias-carrier-race/" style="background-color: transparent; font-size: 12.8px; text-align: center;">https://asianmilitaryreview.com/2019/10/south-korea-joins-asias-carrier-race/</a></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7282984519467580072.post-26909473066753767902019-10-04T16:03:00.000+08:002019-10-04T16:03:21.448+08:00Reinventing the Small Wind Turbine<br />
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Many commercially available small wind turbines with plastic blades and steel towers are infamous for their low reliability, high embodied energy, and limited power output.</div>
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Building them out of wood can address these issues. Because of their aesthetic appeal, and thanks to the ability to produce them locally, small wooden wind turbines can also improve the public acceptance of wind power.</div>
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Furthermore, innovation in tower design facilitates the installation of small wind turbines, reducing the need for concrete foundations and heavy machinery. </div>
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<span style="background-color: #f7dde9;">Image: A wind turbine with wooden blades. Source: EAZ Wind.</span></div>
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<a href="https://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2019/06/small-wooden-wind-turbines.html#more" style="border-radius: 12px; color: #688b9a; text-decoration-line: none;">Continue reading "Reinventing the Small Wind Turbine" »</a></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7282984519467580072.post-89003547966780674442018-10-29T20:14:00.003+08:002018-10-29T20:14:14.788+08:00Pakistan approves Nigerian JF-17 production<b style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: 13px;">Jeremy Binnie, London</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: 13px;"> - IHS Jane's Defence Weekly</span><br />
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he Pakistani government’s Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) has approved a USD184.3 million sovereign guarantee covering the production of three PAC/CAC JF-17 Thunder fighters for Nigeria under a recently signed contract, the Pakistan <i>Express Tribune</i> reported on 24 October.</div>
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This is the first confirmation from Pakistan that Abuja has signed a contract for the JF-17, although payments totalling NGN19.7 billion (USD54 billion) were put aside for the aircraft in Nigeria’s 2016 and 2018 budgets.</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7282984519467580072.post-40873810535308509532018-10-29T18:57:00.001+08:002018-10-29T18:57:03.995+08:00First Missile Firing by Gripen E<div class="article-info" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #34322e; font-family: AktivGroteskRegular, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 20px;">
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26 October 2018</div>
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Gripen E has successfully completed the first tests to verify the ability to release and launch external payloads. The tests took place in October 2018 at Vidsel Test Range in the north of Sweden. </div>
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The tests, conducted by the first Gripen E test aircraft (designated 39-8), comprised jettisoning one external fuel drop tank and one firing of an IRIS-T air-to-air missile.</div>
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“As a pilot, flying with external stores such as drop tank and missiles is important to allow for evaluation of how the aircraft behaves with the stores attached. This test was also used to evaluate the effect on the aircraft when releasing and launching the stores. The highlight was of course to pull the trigger and watch the missile fire away. It also brings us closer to making the aircraft ready for its operational use”, says Marcus Wandt, Experimental Gripen Test Pilot at Saab.</div>
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“I am pleased to see the aircraft behaving and performing according to our expectations, which is proof of its smart design and world-class engineering by Saab. The programme is on track, and we are making good progress in the programme towards delivery to our Swedish and Brazilian customers”, says Jonas Hjelm, Senior Vice President and Head of Saab business area Aeronautics.</div>
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These tests are the latest steps in the Gripen E flight test programme preceded by the carriage trials in July and forms part of the weapon integration work.</div>
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Gripen E has weapons for all types of missions, such as stand-off precision strike using guided glide bombs, heavy anti-ship and deep strike missiles, to long-range and agile air-to-air missiles such as Meteor. Gripen E can also carry pods and sensors for reconnaissance and special missions. To give air forces a wide choice of operational capabilities, Gripen E is designed to enable quick integration of various weapons. This is partly made possible by Gripen E’s flexible avionic architecture.</div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7282984519467580072.post-51450871656780786592018-09-05T19:52:00.000+08:002018-09-05T19:52:33.513+08:00CHINA IS NEARING MASS PRODUCTION OF J-20 STEALTH JETS – REPORT<img height="221" src="https://southfront.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/1-31.jpg?x81896" width="400" /><br />
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China is “nearing mass production” of its J-20 stealth fighters after engine problems have been rectified, the South China Morning Post reported on September 5 citing unnamed military sources.</div>
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Reportedly, an improved power train will allow the Chinese jet to fly undetected at supersonic speeds, competing with the US F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.</div>
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With the new engine, designed to turn the J-20 in a world-class combat aircraft, South China Morning Post’s anonymous sources claim that the fighter jet will be ready for mass production by the end of 2018.</div>
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The sources also claimed that most of the problems, most of which are related to engine blades overheating have been solved in ground tests and trial flights. This makes the bid to create a high-quality aircraft almost a reality, as reported by the South China Morning Post.</div>
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A second unnamed source, cited by South China Morning Post, said that the problems with the WS-15 engine need to be solved before large numbers of J-20s can be manufactured. “China currently has about 20 J-20s, which is far from enough,” the source said. “[Having] a home-grown engine is a must for the J-20 to enter mass production, as no other country would be prepared to give China such cutting-edge technology.”</div>
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The anonymous sources’ claims seem legitimate, when taking into account a reported by state broadcaster China Central Television (CCTV) in April 2018. The report said that Chengdu Aerospace Corporation, which manufactures the J-20, was set to open a fourth production line for the stealth fighter in 2019. In August 2018, CCTV also reported that China had stepped up its training program for J-20 pilots.</div>
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According to the outlet, Beijing wishes to posses a stealth aircraft that is able to compete with the best in the world, especially with the rise in tensions over land disputes in the Asia-Pacific and with the US supposedly ramping up deployment of F-22 and F-35 fighters in the region.</div>
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“The WS-15 is expected to be ready for widespread installation in the J-20s by the end of this year,” one of the unnamed sources said, cited by South China Morning Post. According to the same source, some “minor problems” remained in the jet, however they would be solved once the engine had been more “extensively run in the aircraft.”</div>
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South China Morning Post cited military expert Zhou Chenming who said that China expected the US to deploy between 200 and 300 F-35s in the Asia-Pacific by 2025. According to him that meant “China needs a similar number of J-20s, or at least 200.”</div>
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So far 12 F-35 have arrived at the US Kadena base in Japan in November 2017. South Korea said it planned to procure 40 of the fighters in 2018.</div>
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According to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the J-20 entered into combat service on February 9<span style="border: 0px; bottom: 1ex; font-family: inherit; font-size: 8.75px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 0px; line-height: 1; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">th</span>, 2018. It had been working alongside fourth generation aircraft such as the J-16 and J-10 fighters and the H-6K strategic bomber. However, according to The Post, the J-20 was equipped with a “stopgap” engine when it was initially deployed in February.</div>
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South China Morning Post reported that in May the J-20 took part in island encirclement drills around Taiwan.</div>
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One of the anonymous military sources claimed that the public would be able to get a first look at the stealth fighter jet at the China International Aviation & Aerospace Exhibition between November 5<span style="border: 0px; bottom: 1ex; font-family: inherit; font-size: 8.75px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 0px; line-height: 1; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">th</span> and 11<span style="border: 0px; bottom: 1ex; font-family: inherit; font-size: 8.75px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 0px; line-height: 1; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">th</span>. The event is held once every two years.</div>
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According to a report on August 30<span style="border: 0px; bottom: 1ex; font-family: inherit; font-size: 8.75px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 0px; line-height: 1; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">th</span>, by the South China Morning Post, the J-20 stealth fighter jet carried out its first sea training mission. The PLA air force announced on August 29<span style="border: 0px; bottom: 1ex; font-family: inherit; font-size: 8.75px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 0px; line-height: 1; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">th</span> that the training had taken place, without specifying where or when. The drill was conducted over the sea in “actual war conditions” to “further upgrade the air force’s combat capabilities,” Senior Colonel Shen Jinke said on the official air force microblog. “It will enable the [PLA air force] to better defend national sovereignty, security and territorial integrity,” he said.</div>
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The rapid development of the J-20 really presents the progress Chinese military engineers and designers have made. Similarly, to the tempo with which they’re developing the second and third Chinese aircraft carriers, the manufacturing of a fighter jet that can compete with the F-35 in such a short term is astounding.</div>
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It also appears that China is resolving issues with its jet, rather than what Lockheed Martin appears to be doing with the F-35. According to a recent investigative report by the Project On Government Oversight (POGO), 19 issues that could threaten a pilots life and the jet’s operation were downgraded so that the F-35 could go past the development phase. These issues were downgraded without an apparent fix even being in the works.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Read more at: <a href="https://southfront.org/">https://southfront.org/</a></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7282984519467580072.post-4851803343428471022017-11-17T12:13:00.000+08:002017-11-17T12:13:40.432+08:00We Have Flown in Textron’s Scorpion Jet. Here’s What We Have Learned.<img height="223" src="https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Scorpion-flight.jpg" width="400" /><br />
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By Todd Miller</div>
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The Scorpion is the iPhone X of Military Aviation.</h1>
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To many, the Textron Aviation Defense LLC Scorpion is an enigma.</div>
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Though it has capability overlap, the <a href="https://theaviationist.com/2017/09/06/up-close-and-personal-with-textrons-scorpion-light-attack-jet-during-weapons-separation-testing/" style="color: #295b9e; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Scorpion</a> is not a traditional Fighter, Attack, Reconnaissance, Observation, or Trainer, nor is it designed to replace any existing platform. To understand it, one must look to the Scorpion as a ISR/Strike platform developed in the context of the smartphone business model.</div>
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The hardware platform – the Scorpion, could be likened to the 256 GB iPhone X (or equivalent Pixel 2/Samsung Note 8 if you prefer). The aircraft features a truly open mission architecture, with extraordinary internal/external payload capability. An Interface Control Document [ICD] is made available to payload suppliers who program their payloads to interface with the Scorpion mission system. The result is a very efficient hardware platform with a “sky’s the limit” applications/payloads store!</div>
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Textron focuses on providing the very low operating cost, flexible, and modular “flying platform” to readily host today and tomorrow’s most capable payloads. The approach is a complete break from the proprietary systems utilized by the prime contractors of current high-end fighters; controlled, slowed and priced by the prime.</div>
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image: https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Scorpion-HMP-706x504.jpg</div>
<img alt="" class="size-large wp-image-46301" data-attachment-id="46301" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-description="" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"11","credit":"U.S. Navy photo by Erik Hildebra","camera":"NIKON D5","caption":"Textron Scorpion with HMP-400 gun pods overflies NAS Patuxent River during recent weapons trials. The TEXTRON team achieved 100% mission completion rate during weapons system testing. 5 different configurations (LAU-131, HMP-400 Gun pods, GBU-12) were tested over 5 days, with the tests concluding 4 days early.","created_timestamp":"1499968546","copyright":"U.S. Navy photo by Erik Hildebrandt \/Released","focal_length":"30","iso":"200","shutter_speed":"0.002","title":"13 JULY 2017 NAS PATUXENT RIVER MD A\/C N532TX TEXTRON AIRLAND SCORPION CESSNA Model 530 Flight#12 Dual HMP-400LCC .50Cal Gun Pod Live Fire Testing. Pilot: Dan Hinson CoPilot: Brett Pierson. USN Photo by Erik Hildebrandt VIRIN ID# UZ648 Project ID 170713-N","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="13 JULY 2017 NAS PATUXENT RIVER MD A/C N532TX TEXTRON AIRLAND SCORPION CESSNA Model 530 Flight#12 Dual HMP-400LCC .50Cal Gun Pod Live Fire Testing. Pilot: Dan Hinson CoPilot: Brett Pierson. USN Photo by Erik Hildebrandt VIRIN ID# UZ648 Project ID 170713-N" data-large-file="https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Scorpion-HMP-706x504.jpg" data-medium-file="https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Scorpion-HMP-460x329.jpg" data-orig-file="https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Scorpion-HMP.jpg" data-orig-size="1200,857" data-permalink="https://theaviationist.com/2017/11/16/we-have-flown-in-textrons-scorpion-jet-heres-what-we-have-learned/13-july-2017-nas-patuxent-river-md-ac-n532tx-textron-airland-scorpion-cessna-model-530-flight12-dual-hmp-400lcc-50cal-gun-pod-live-fire-testing-pilot-dan-hinson-copilot-brett-pierson-usn-photo-2/" height="504" sizes="(max-width: 706px) 100vw, 706px" src="https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Scorpion-HMP-706x504.jpg" srcset="https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Scorpion-HMP-706x504.jpg 706w, https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Scorpion-HMP-128x91.jpg 128w, https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Scorpion-HMP-460x329.jpg 460w, https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Scorpion-HMP-768x548.jpg 768w, https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Scorpion-HMP.jpg 1200w" style="border: 0px none; margin: 0px; padding: 4px 0px;" width="706" /></a><div class="wp-caption-text" style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17px; padding: 0px 4px 5px;">
Textron Scorpion with HMP-400 gun pods overflies NAS Patuxent River during recent weapons trials. The TEXTRON team achieved 100% mission completion rate during weapons system testing. 5 different configurations (LAU-131, HMP-400 Gun pods, GBU-12) were tested over 5 days, with the tests concluding 4 days early. (Photo: Erik Hildebrandt)</div>
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I recently flew in one of the three production Scorpions, “P2” fresh off the USAF <a href="https://theaviationist.com/2017/08/16/its-not-a-fly-off-competition-u-s-air-force-tests-process-and-planes-at-light-attack-demo/" style="color: #295b9e; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">OA-X Experiment.</a></div>
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Textron Aviation Defense Flight Test and Demonstration Pilot Matt “Tajma” Hall (current Air National Guard C-130 Aircraft Commander; experienced pilot in the F-15E and T-6) provided flight briefing, and Chief Test Pilot Dan “Shaka” Hinson (Ret. USN F/A-18 Pilot, former Commanding Officer of the U.S. Naval Strike Fighter Weapons School, and Graduate of U.S. Naval Test Pilot School) piloted the aircraft. One cannot help but note the tremendous quality and experience in the team that Textron has assembled to not only fly and prove the aircraft, but to provide the intellectual capital behind design and capability.</div>
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image: https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Scorpion-RQ-706x504.jpg</div>
<img alt="" class="size-large wp-image-46311" data-attachment-id="46311" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-description="" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"10","credit":"Todd Miller","camera":"Canon EOS 5D Mark III","caption":"Testron Scorpion \"P2\" just off the USAF OA-X Experiment readies for flight from Manassas, VA.","created_timestamp":"1457100793","copyright":"All Rights Reserved\rTodd Miller\rflyfastandlow@yahoo.com","focal_length":"50","iso":"200","shutter_speed":"0.002","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Scorpion RQ" data-large-file="https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Scorpion-RQ-706x504.jpg" data-medium-file="https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Scorpion-RQ-460x329.jpg" data-orig-file="https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Scorpion-RQ.jpg" data-orig-size="1200,857" data-permalink="https://theaviationist.com/2017/11/16/we-have-flown-in-textrons-scorpion-jet-heres-what-we-have-learned/scorpion-rq/" height="504" sizes="(max-width: 706px) 100vw, 706px" src="https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Scorpion-RQ-706x504.jpg" srcset="https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Scorpion-RQ-706x504.jpg 706w, https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Scorpion-RQ-128x91.jpg 128w, https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Scorpion-RQ-460x329.jpg 460w, https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Scorpion-RQ-768x548.jpg 768w, https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Scorpion-RQ.jpg 1200w" style="border: 0px none; margin: 0px; padding: 4px 0px;" width="706" /></a><div class="wp-caption-text" style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17px; padding: 0px 4px 5px;">
Testron Scorpion “P2” just off the USAF OA-X Experiment readies for flight from Manassas, VA. (All photos: Author unless otherwise stated).</div>
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Departing on an IFR flight plan in low overcast from the Manassas Regional Airport, Virginia, we quickly climbed to 5,000 ft and headed southwest where the skies were clearing. The rapid departure and climb made it clear we were under jet power. Within minutes we were in suitable VFR conditions over Charlottesville, Virginia and ATC provided a block of airspace for maneuvering. Over the next 60 minutes, Hinson demonstrated the flight characteristics, sensors and weapons systems.</div>
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Under his watchful eye, Hinson had me take control of the aircraft executing turns, pulling Gs, evaluating high speed handling, speed brake deployment, an aileron roll, multiple stalls and stall recoveries. The Scorpion is an incredibly stable and “pilot friendly” aircraft. Engines at idle, flaps up, stick back, and nose high – and the aircraft would not stall. When parameters were established to create a stall, recovery was straightforward. The aircraft is slippery and a slight drop in the nose leads to a “with this kind of nose attitude the aircraft really accelerates a lot…” from Hinson. The man is a real professional, a gentleman’s way of saying, “pull the nose up.” I did.</div>
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image: https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Scorpion-Selfie-706x504.jpg</div>
<img alt="" class="size-large wp-image-46286" data-attachment-id="46286" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-description="" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"2.2","credit":"Todd Miller","camera":"iPhone 6","caption":"The author, Todd Miller taking a selfie in the Textron Aviation Defense Scorpion Jet over Virgina, USA. Capable, scalable ISR\/Light Attack for the uncontested space.","created_timestamp":"1457100793","copyright":"All Rights Reserved\rTodd Miller\rflyfastandlow@yahoo.com","focal_length":"2.65","iso":"32","shutter_speed":"0.0011223344556678","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Scorpion Selfie" data-large-file="https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Scorpion-Selfie-706x504.jpg" data-medium-file="https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Scorpion-Selfie-460x329.jpg" data-orig-file="https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Scorpion-Selfie.jpg" data-orig-size="1022,730" data-permalink="https://theaviationist.com/2017/11/16/we-have-flown-in-textrons-scorpion-jet-heres-what-we-have-learned/scorpion-selfie/" height="504" sizes="(max-width: 706px) 100vw, 706px" src="https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Scorpion-Selfie-706x504.jpg" srcset="https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Scorpion-Selfie-706x504.jpg 706w, https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Scorpion-Selfie-128x91.jpg 128w, https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Scorpion-Selfie-460x329.jpg 460w, https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Scorpion-Selfie-768x549.jpg 768w, https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Scorpion-Selfie.jpg 1022w" style="border: 0px none; margin: 0px; padding: 4px 0px;" width="706" /></a><div class="wp-caption-text" style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17px; padding: 0px 4px 5px;">
The author, Todd Miller taking a selfie in the Textron Aviation Defense Scorpion Jet over Virgina, USA. Capable, scalable ISR/Light Attack for the uncontested space.</div>
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The wing provides a tremendous glide ratio, ideal for the aircraft’s purpose – ISR in a permissive environment. On station at about 12,000 ft the total fuel burn was only 500 – 600 lbs per engine, per hour. This enables tremendous time on station with a variety of weapons at the ready to neutralize a target of opportunity. For comparison sake, the fuel burn per hour on station is about 10 – 12% of the F-15E Strike Eagle and less than 20% of an F-16 in the same role. While no replacement for these fighter aircraft, this mission utilization is precisely how scores of hours have been accumulated by the F-15E, F-16, A-10, and F/A-18s over the past 30 years. The Scorpion delivers exceptional economy while enabling operations from austere environments with significantly more capable ISR payloads.</div>
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A veritable set of airborne eyes and ears, the Scorpion supports payloads that facilitate both kinetic and non-kinetic effects across all operational domains. With tremendous internal space for payloads, the Scorpion offers an excess of electrical power to support anticipated and unforeseen demands. A nose bay is available for configuration with electro-optical/infrared (EO-IR) sensors such as the L3 Wescam MX series, or an active electronically scanned array radar (AESA). Three large internal payload bays can be configured for use with sensors/payloads to support Signals Intelligence (SIGINT), Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), Hyperspectral Analysis, Electronic Warfare or other. Additional payloads such as a 4G LTE Hotspot could be very helpful in a humanitarian crisis. Like a smartphone, the Scorpion’s capabilities are limited only by the ingenuity of providers to fill the space and power available.</div>
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image: https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Two-Wescams-706x504.jpg</div>
<img alt="" class="size-large wp-image-46306" data-attachment-id="46306" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-description="" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"9","credit":"Todd Miller","camera":"Canon EOS 5D Mark III","caption":"The Textron Scorpion demonstrates the ability to carry the L-3 Wescam MX-15 (nose bay) or the powerful MX-25 (payload bay 3). In both instances the EO IR sensor is fully retractable, and is stowed for flight operations until on station.","created_timestamp":"1457100793","copyright":"All Rights Reserved\rTodd Miller\rflyfastandlow@yahoo.com","focal_length":"24","iso":"400","shutter_speed":"0.00625","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Two Wescams" data-large-file="https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Two-Wescams-706x504.jpg" data-medium-file="https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Two-Wescams-460x329.jpg" data-orig-file="https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Two-Wescams.jpg" data-orig-size="1200,857" data-permalink="https://theaviationist.com/2017/11/16/we-have-flown-in-textrons-scorpion-jet-heres-what-we-have-learned/two-wescams/" height="504" sizes="(max-width: 706px) 100vw, 706px" src="https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Two-Wescams-706x504.jpg" srcset="https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Two-Wescams-706x504.jpg 706w, https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Two-Wescams-128x91.jpg 128w, https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Two-Wescams-460x329.jpg 460w, https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Two-Wescams-768x548.jpg 768w, https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Two-Wescams.jpg 1200w" style="border: 0px none; margin: 0px; padding: 4px 0px;" width="706" /></a><div class="wp-caption-text" style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17px; padding: 0px 4px 5px;">
The Textron Scorpion demonstrates the ability to carry the L-3 Wescam MX-15 (nose bay) or the powerful MX-25 (payload bay 3). In both instances the EO IR sensor is fully retractable, and is stowed for flight operations until on station.</div>
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Permissive environments that utilize significant ISR assets such as the <a href="https://theaviationist.com/2017/04/26/has-an-rc-135u-combat-sent-signal-intelligence-aircraft-covered-the-two-f-35a-stealth-jets-visiting-estonia/" style="color: #295b9e; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">RC-135 Rivet Joint [SIGINT]</a>, <a href="https://theaviationist.com/2017/11/09/u-s-consindering-sale-of-e-8c-jstars-surveillance-aircraft-to-south-korea/" style="color: #295b9e; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">E-8 JSTARS</a> [Surveillance and Reconnaissance] and others may find more than adequate capability in a rightly configured Scorpion. Such downsizing of ISR packages would increase savings exponentially and free the most capable USAF assets for demanding mission sets.</div>
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Orbiting on station I found operating the sensor package while flying the aircraft via the Hands-on Throttle and Stick [HOTAS] intuitive and straightforward. Up front, Hinson utilized the Helmet Mounted Cueing System (HMCS) to demonstrate operational capabilities. Specific sensor packages overlay data from multiple payloads and create a single situational picture captured by time and geolocation. The data could be processed by a powerful computer package onboard, or streamed by secure network to other assets in space, the air or ground. As Textron Aviation Defense Senior Advisor Stephen Burke indicated, “We can pull out of the noise a target that is very difficult to see. A low contrast, short dwell target in a chaotic urban environment.” The kind of environment that the USAF has been operating in for years – with no end in sight.</div>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" />Read more at https://theaviationist.com/2017/11/16/we-have-flown-in-textrons-scorpion-jet-heres-what-we-have-learned/#dRFcQVBzlwPUgY4Q.99</span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7282984519467580072.post-81100272186123966062017-11-13T11:41:00.000+08:002017-11-13T11:41:51.302+08:00China’s UAVs Proliferate in Middle East<img src="http://aviationweek.com/site-files/aviationweek.com/files/imagecache/large_img/uploads/2017/11/c-drone.png" /><br />
<span style="background-color: #e3e3e2; font-family: Arial, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; font-weight: 700;">CASC</span><span style="background-color: #e3e3e2; font-family: Arial, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px; font-weight: 700;">’s CH-4, pictured in development, has been noted in the colors of Iraq and Saudi Arabia.</span><br />
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hinese gains could make it difficult for the U.S. to break back into Middle East UAV market.</div>
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Reluctance on the part of the U.S. to deliver armed unmanned air systems (UAS) to some of its key allies in the Middle East has resulted in a significant win for China.</div>
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Chinese UAS manufacturers have been rewarded handsomely with major contracts from several Middle East and Central Asian governments.</div>
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And China’s successes in those geographic areas have prompted it to explore other markets further afield.</div>
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In April, Avic demonstrated a model of its Wing Loong II, an <span class="keyword_link"><a href="http://awin.aviationweek.com/ProgramProfileDetails.aspx?pgId=1095&pgName=General+Atomics+MQ-9+Reaper" style="color: #0e5f8b; text-decoration-line: none;" title="General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper">MQ-9 Reaper</a></span>-size air system at an exhibition in Mexico—right in the U.S.’s backyard. In June, it debuted at the Paris Air Show, displayed with an array of Chinese-produced weaponry.</div>
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It is hard to determine the actual number of Chinese-made armed UAVs now in service with countries in the Middle East, but the platforms are operational with the air forces of Iraq, Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and reports suggest they have found their way into Egypt and Jordan as well.</div>
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Some of these countries have also used them in combat. Saudi Arabia has employed the systems during the air campaign over Yemen, while Iraq has flown them in its ongoing campaign against the Islamic State group.</div>
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The UAE has gone further and deployed several to Libya’s Marj District to support the Libyan National Army against Islamic fighters there.</div>
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All these nations had requested to purchase armed versions of the <a href="http://awin.aviationweek.com/ProgramProfileDetails.aspx?pgId=1094&pgName=General%20Atomics%20MQ-1%20Predator" style="color: #0e5f8b; text-decoration-line: none;">General Atomics MQ-1</a> Predator and MQ-9 Reaper, but were denied by the Obama administration due to concerns that selling into the region would break the international Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) rules, which attempt to prevent proliferation of technologies that enable the creation of delivery systems for nuclear, biological and chemical weapons.</div>
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The UAE was granted permission to purchase unarmed exportable versions of the Predator, known as the Predator XP.</div>
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Beijing’s success in the region revolves around two almost identical air systems, both virtual copies of the<span class="keyword_link"><a href="http://awin.aviationweek.com/ProgramProfileDetails.aspx?pgId=1094&pgName=General+Atomics+MQ-1+Predator" style="color: #0e5f8b; text-decoration-line: none;" title="General Atomics MQ-1 Predator"> MQ-1</a></span> Predator. These are the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp. (CASC) CH-4, known as Rainbow, and the Chengdu or Avic Wing Loong I, designated GJ-1 in the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force service. One analysis puts the price of a CH-4 system at one-fifth that of an MQ-1.</div>
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In October, it emerged that the Trump administration had begun exploring the loosening of the MTCR and other arms protocols in order to facilitate the export of U.S.-manufactured UAS, but China’s stranglehold could be difficult to break.</div>
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In March, it was announced that CASC could open a factory to build as many as 300 CH-4 systems for the Saudi armed forces over the coming years.</div>
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Source: <a href="http://aviationweek.com/dubai-air-show-2017/china-s-uavs-proliferate-middle-east?Issue=AW-021_20171111_AW-021_21&sfvc4enews=42&cl=article_2&utm_rid=CPEN1000001177341&utm_campaign=12541&utm_medium=email&elq2=fd3b02a2de4c40c3bf06d5e6f0a77358" target="_blank">Aviationweek</a></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7282984519467580072.post-12957330702593429932017-11-13T10:03:00.000+08:002017-11-13T11:42:33.581+08:00Malaysia seeks Light Combat Aircraft as part of wider modernisation plans<b style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: 13px;">Gareth Jennings</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 13px;"> - IHS Jane's Defence Weekly</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: rgba(0 , 0 , 0 , 0.5); color: white; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12px;">Already fielded by Malaysia's neighbours, the KAI FA-50 is a prime candidate for the RMAF's new LCA requirement. Source: KAI</span><br />
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Malaysia is looking to acquire a new ‘low-end’ fighter and attack aircraft as part of wider plans to better tailor its combat capabilities to meet current and future threats, an air force official said on 7 November.</div>
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Speaking under the Chatham House rule, the official said that the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) procurement programme is looking for a single-engined, supersonic platform to augment its fleets of single-seat BAE Systems Hawk and twin-engined Boeing F/A-18D Hornet and Sukhoi Su-30 ‘Flanker’ fighters.</div>
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“The Royal Malaysian Air Force [RMAF] is looking at its capabilities for the next 15-years-or-so, and how best we can suit our requirements,” the official said, adding, “As part of our future capability plans we are looking at a new [LCA] that will have some air-to-air and a full air-to-ground capability.”</div>
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The official noted that Malaysia’s traditional approach of acquiring large twin-seat and twin-engined aircraft because of its large maritime areas is now just too expensive given the downturn in the economy caused by the drop in the international oil price. “We cannot now do this because of our economic situation and so must now find something that is cheaper to buy and operate.” As well as being an air defender and ground-attack aircraft, the LCA should also serve as a lead-in fighter trainer (LIFT) platform and should be ready for fielding in about 2021/22.</div>
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Although the official said that all options are currently being considered, he noted a preference for the Korean Aerospace Industries (KAI) T-50 Golden Eagle/FA-50 Fighting Eagle aircraft already in service with near-neighbours the Philippines and the Republic of Korea.</div>
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<span style="background-color: rgba(0 , 0 , 0 , 0.5); color: white; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12px;"><br /></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7282984519467580072.post-75259224676071044312017-10-26T13:17:00.002+08:002017-10-26T13:18:21.426+08:00Chinese Stealth Goes Operational, Carrier Program and Export Initiatives Accelerate <img height="196" src="https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Chengdu_J-20_800.jpg" width="400" /><br />
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By Tom Demerly</div>
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China Has Emerged as a Preeminent Global Strategic Super Power: What Does It Mean?</h1>
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During the past five years China’s defense programs have not accelerated, they have increased by multiples into segments the Chinese had not previously been involved in. The introduction of a developmental aircraft carrier program, the fielding of an operational stealth fighter, the deployment of the world’s longest range ICBM and several new state-sponsored defense programs including tactical aircraft and helicopters intended specifically for export sale signal a parallel emergence of China’s global defense doctrine along with their dominant economic influence.</div>
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But what are China’s strategic and tactical air capabilities and, more importantly, what can we theorize about their intentions not only in Asia, but around the world?</div>
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China’s new defense and aerospace initiatives are a strategic necessity to provide foundational security for their rising economic influence globally.</div>
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Two years ago, in 2015 The International Monetary Fund (IMF) ranked China as the number one economic superpower in the world. That year China surpassed the United States based upon the purchasing power parity of GDP indicator (gross domestic product). The IMF reported that China produced 17% of the world gross domestic product in 2014 passing the U.S. GDP of 16%. China’s increased global influence has inspired low and middle income countries to emulate China’s approach. These Chinese allies now engage in partially state-sponsored rapid economic growth including the Latin American countries, Brazil, Argentina and Columbia as it emerges from a protracted drug war. India and Pakistan are now also aligned with China on several significant defense and economic initiatives.</div>
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While the subject of China’s emerging military is vast, there are several standout defense aerospace programs that provide an insight into China’s global motives.</div>
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China’s Operational Stealth Fighter: The J-20</h2>
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China’s <a href="https://theaviationist.com/2016/11/01/chinas-new-j-20-mighty-dragon-stealth-fighter-officially-unveiled-and-ready-to-enter-active-service/" style="color: #295b9e; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Chengdu J-20 stealth fighter</a> has just officially entered active service with the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF): “China’s latest J-20 stealth fighter has been officially commissioned into military service, Ministry of National Defense spokesperson Wu Qian told global media in a September 28, 2017 press release on the Xinhua.net and the official state defense media website.</div>
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Analysts suggest the J-20 is likely a medium-long range interceptor roughly analogous to the interceptor role of legacy aircraft like Russia’s older MiG-25 Foxbat, albeit much more sophisticated, and comparable to a Gen. 5 fighter.</div>
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There have also been comparisons to the U.S. F-22 Raptor, although the F-22 has emerged in combat in Syria as a precision strike low-observable aircraft in addition to its air superiority role. Western observers have suggested the primary low-observable capability of the J-20 is from the front of the aircraft, but perhaps not at other aspects, suggesting the J-20 is optimized for the interceptor role at least initially.</div>
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At different times, both in 2016 and 2017, there were unconfirmed reports that China may sell the J-20 to Pakistan in what would be the first-ever sale of a stealth air superiority specific Gen 5 aircraft in the export market (the multinational F-35 is described as a multirole Joint Strike Fighter, not exclusively as an air superiority interceptor like the J-20 or the U.S. F-22, which has not been exported outside the U.S.</div>
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Given this and more information about the J-20 it can be reasonably suggested that this aircraft is intended primarily for defense of Chinese air space and, if exported, some of its border allies. Sharing air defense with friendly border countries makes sense since China shares a border with a staggering 14 different countries. The U.S. only borders 2.</div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" />Read more at <a href="https://theaviationist.com/2017/10/25/chinese-stealth-goes-operational-carrier-program-and-export-initiatives-accelerate/#u24CMxrI7oU4G5A5.99">https://theaviationist.com/2017/10/25/chinese-stealth-goes-operational-carrier-program-and-export-initiatives-accelerate/#u24CMxrI7oU4G5A5.99</a></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7282984519467580072.post-83429198618593078502017-10-25T12:46:00.000+08:002017-10-25T12:47:25.526+08:00Oil Quality Issues Could Bankrupt Venezuela<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "open sans" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">By </span><a href="https://oilprice.com/contributors/Nick-Cunningham" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: "Open Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Nick Cunningham</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "open sans" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"> </span><br />
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The next few weeks for Venezuela will be crucial, as it could struggle to meet a huge stack of debt payments. Reports that the nation’s oil production is experiencing deteriorating quality raises a new cause for concern for the crumbling South American nation.</div>
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Venezuela’s state-owned oil company PDVSA is reportedly shipping crude oil with growing quality issues. Reuters <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-oil-insight/venezuelas-deteriorating-oil-quality-riles-major-refiners-idUSKBN1CN2EO" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0000ee; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">reported</a> that its oil shipments are “soiled with high levels of water, salt or metals that can cause problems for refineries”. It’s a troubling situation for an oil company already suffering from a steep drop in output.</div>
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The quality problem is very much related to the country’s economic crisis. Without cash, PDVSA is struggling to obtain the proper chemicals to treat its oil, or pay for equipment and upkeep to maintain quality. As a result, PDVSA has had to shut down operations, or throttle back on production. “We’re refitting chemical injection points, recouping pumps and storage tanks,” one PDVSA worker told Reuters. “But without chemicals, we can’t do anything.”</div>
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The oil company has been shipping crude that is apparently causing problems for refiners around the world. According to Reuters, that has led to complaints and even cancellations of purchases. Phillips 66, a U.S. refiner, cancelled at least eight cargoes in the first half of the year due to inferior quality. It also demanded discounts for other shipments. Refiners in India and China have also lodged complaints.</div>
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The sales cancellation poses a serious financial threat to a company and country already wallowing in a horrific economic crisis. For example, the cancelled shipments were carrying oil representing $200 million in value, according to Reuters estimates. PDVSA is the only lifeline for the Venezuelan state, so reports that the one source of revenue keeping the country somewhat afloat is not only declining but is now exhibiting declining quality is alarming.</div>
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Output is falling, cash is drying up and oil workers have fled the country because of food shortages and violence.</div>
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The problem for PDVSA is compounded by the fact that a few months ago the Trump administration slapped sanctions on new financial arrangements with the oil company, prohibiting PDVSA from engaging with U.S. banks to restructure debt. The measures also add a new level of red tape for U.S. refiners who do business with PDVSA. Because of the new pressure from Washington, refiners are starting to look elsewhere for their crude. PBF Energy, the fifth largest U.S. refiner and regular PDVSA customer, has reportedly <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/11/big-buyer-of-venezuelan-crude-oil-halts-purchases-from-national-oil-company.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0000ee; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">halted</a> direct purchases from the Venezuelan oil company.</div>
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Read more at: <a href="https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Quality-Issues-Could-Break-Venezuela.html">Oilprice.com</a></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7282984519467580072.post-29998822583966641622017-10-25T09:37:00.000+08:002017-10-25T09:37:33.956+08:00The 5 Countries That Could Push Oil Prices Up<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Open Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">By </span><a href="https://oilprice.com/contributors/Nick-Cunningham" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: "Open Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Nick Cunningham</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Open Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"> - Oct 23, 2017,</span><br />
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Oil prices appear to be stuck in the $50s per barrel, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t serious supply risks to the market.</div>
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An unexpected disruption could occur at any moment, as has happened in the past, leading to a sudden and sharp jump in prices. Geopolitical tension has been largely irrelevant since the collapse of oil prices in 2014, but it’s <a href="https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Half-A-Million-Bpd-At-Risk-From-Geopolitical-Firestorm.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0000ee; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">making a return</a> now that cracks have emerged in some key oil-producing nations. The threat of an outage will carry more weight as the oil market tightens.</div>
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"The 'Fragile Five' petrostates—Iran, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela—continue to see supply disruption potential, with northern Iraq crude exports at risk due to an escalation of tensions between the (Kurdistan Regional Government), Baghdad and Turkey, while the United States has decertified the 2015 Iran nuclear deal," U.S. bank Citi <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/19/reuters-america-update-5-oil-slips-but-holds-most-gains-on-expected-opec-cuts.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0000ee; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">said</a>.</div>
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Indeed, five prominent oil-producing nations are beset with challenges, for varying reasons, all of which could spring a surprise on the oil market without any advanced notice.</div>
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<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Iraq</strong>. The most near-term supply risk comes from Iraq. The surprise seizure of Kirkuk’s oil fields by the Iraqi government has already <a href="https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Iraq-Seizes-Kirkuk-Briefly-Knocks-350000-Bpd-Offline.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0000ee; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">disrupted</a> some oil shipments. The Bai Hassan and Avana oil fields near Kirkuk remained shut as of October 19, keeping at least 275,000 bpd offline. The outages are expected to be temporary; a source told <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-kurds/kurdish-officials-say-thousands-flee-kirkuk-since-iraqi-army-takeover-idUSKBN1CO1RB" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0000ee; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Reuters</a> last week that they’re seeking certain equipment to bring the fields back online. An agent at the Turkish port of Ceyhan—the destination for Iraq’s northern oil exports—told Bloomberg that flows fell to 196,000 bpd as of October 19, implying an outage of about 400,000 bpd. Iraq represents the most obvious near-term threat to global supplies, but because the bulk of the country’s output is located in the south, far from the unrest, the potential outage is likely capped at 600,000 bpd, and would probably be temporary.</div>
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<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Iran</strong>. This one’s probably the biggest question mark on this list, and is in a much stronger position than its more fragile peers. The danger to Iran is a return of U.S. sanctions, which are by no means a given. Even then, it’s unclear if the U.S. has the ability to curtail Iranian oil exports. It might scare away new investment, but even U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/tillerson-assures-trump-administration-wont-block-european-trade-with-iran-1508472241" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0000ee; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">went to lengths</a> recently to assure European officials that it wouldn’t block business between European companies and Iran. Goldman Sachs estimates that in a relatively worst-case scenario of a return of U.S. sanctions, a few hundred thousand barrels of oil exports would be at risk—not the more than 1 mb/d of disrupted exports due to sanctions before the nuclear deal. At this point, though, potential outages are too hypothetical to be taken seriously. Iran probably won’t pose a supply risk to the market, at least not this year.</div>
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<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Libya</strong>. The North African OPEC member was exempted from the OPEC deal, and for much of the past year has represented a downside risk to oil prices, not an upside one. That is because it has nearly <a href="http://www.worldoil.com/news/2017/10/20/woodmac-whats-behind-the-boost-in-libyas-oil-production" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0000ee; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">tripled</a> its output from about 300,000 bpd in August 2016 up to about 850,000 bpd currently, down a bit from a recent peak at over 1 mb/d. But damage to some export terminals likely means that near-term production has a ceiling at about 1.25 mb/d, meaning Libya won’t be able to bring output back to pre-war levels of 1.6 mb/d. But because current output is now taken for granted and already baked into global pricing calculations, Libya now represents a supply risk to the market because an outage is entirely realistic due to ongoing instability. The country is nearing its ceiling for production, while there’s plenty of room for it to fall back.</div>
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<span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: maroon; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong class="related" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: block; margin-top: 25px;"><a href="https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/Can-India-Overtake-China-In-The-EV-Revolution.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Related: Can India Overtake China In The EV Revolution?</a></strong></span></div>
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<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Nigeria</strong>. The story here is similar to Libya. It was also exempted from the cuts because violence and instability previously knocked a sizable portion of output offline. But Libya’s restoration of output coincided with a similar reduction in violence in the Niger Delta. A ceasefire brought calm for much of the past year, allowing production to rebound from a low point of 1.2 mb/d last year, back up <a href="http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/MOMR%20October%202017.pdf" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0000ee; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">to 1.8 mb/d currently</a>. Potential for further output gains is probably limited, not least because the country promised to limit production when it hit 1.8 mb/d. Meanwhile, peace in the Niger Delta remains fragile, and reports that militants have <a href="https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Majors-Brace-For-More-Niger-Delta-Attacks.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0000ee; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">grown frustrated with the pace of talks</a> with the government raises concerns about a return to violence. The rebound in Nigerian production is not assured.</div>
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<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Venezuela</strong>. The unfolding implosion of Venezuela almost ensures that more of the country’s oil production will erode, perhaps at a quickening pace. As of September, Venezuela only produced 1.89 mb/d, down from 3.2 mb/d in the late 1990s, but also down from nearly 2.4 mb/d as recently as 2015. Without cash, state-owned PDVSA can’t invest in new production and can’t even invest in maintenance to keep existing production from falling. Reports have surfaced suggesting that even the oil that is produced is suffering from <a href="https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Quality-Issues-Could-Break-Venezuela.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0000ee; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">declining quality</a>, as PDVSA doesn’t have the means to properly treat its heavy crude. Worse, with huge debt payments coming due in the next few weeks, a debt default is possible. All of this adds up to a further deterioration in the country’s oil output.</div>
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By Nick Cunningham for <a href="https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/The-5-Countries-That-Could-Push-Oil-Prices-Up.html">Oilprice.com</a></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7282984519467580072.post-46596740681093491942017-10-25T09:22:00.000+08:002017-10-25T09:22:32.924+08:00Missed debt payments revive specter of PdV default<div style="border: 0px; color: #58595b; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", "Free Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 12px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
23 Oct 2017, 3.59 pm GMT</div>
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Caracas, 23 October (Argus) — Venezuela has missed interest payments totaling $590mn this month on seven bonds totaling a combined $14.75bn of principal as of 21 October, heightening creditor worries of an imminent default if state-owned oil company PdV misses a $984mn interest payment due on 27 October.</div>
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"Creditors are on tenterhooks and praying, but still hopeful that PdV won't miss Friday's $984mn payment," Miami-based bond trader Russ Dallen told <i style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Argus</i>.</div>
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"The seven interest payments already missed this month have a 30-day grace period before they're declared in default, which gives Venezuela some time to catch up before they're actually in default," Dallen said. "It's possible that the government is saving its pennies to make the big bond payments due on 27 October and 2 November."</div>
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He noted that the looming $984mn interest payment on the $3.368bn PdV 2020 8.5pc bond does not have a 30-day grace period. "If PdV misses this Friday's payment the impact on the company's operations will be significant and immediate," Dallen added.</div>
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Among the immediate effects of a PdV default would be a shutdown of the crude and refined product imports on which the Opec country increasingly depends. Exports and oil tankers would be at risk of seizure.</div>
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But Venezuela has proved adept at averting default on several previous occasions in recent years, mainly by selling or mortgaging assets, or using its US downstream subsidiary Citgo to replenish funds.</div>
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PdV and the government have more than $3.79bn in combined bond interest maturities due in fourth quarter 2017, including over $1.66bn this month, over $1.89bn in November and $242mn in December.</div>
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PdV's fourth quarter maturities total over $2.9bn or over 76pc of the total due before end-2017, of which $984mn are due on 27 October, $90mn on 28 October and $1.169bn on 2 November.</div>
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Venezuela has never defaulted on its bond obligations and plans to make all payments due this month without any difficulty, a central bank official told <i style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Argus</i>.</div>
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But with central bank hard currency reserves at just $9.86bn currently, including about $500mn in cash, it is not clear where PdV and the government will secure the cash needed to pay combined fourth quarter 2017 bond maturities equivalent to over 38pc of the bank's current reserves position.</div>
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PdV was two weeks late paying about $229mn of bond interest in September – a delay the company blamed on US financial sanctions.</div>
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PdV, the energy ministry and finance ministry all declined to comment on the debt arrears.</div>
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But a PdV mid-level finance manager again blamed the company's escalating difficulties on US financial sanctions announced in August.</div>
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The US sanctions limit Venezuela's ability to raise revenue through the US financial system, with some exceptions, including commercial trade financing.</div>
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Source: <a href="http://www.argusmedia.com/news/article/?id=1557642">http://www.argusmedia.com/news/article/?id=1557642</a></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7282984519467580072.post-3301738573327924322017-10-20T12:42:00.000+08:002017-10-20T12:42:05.705+08:00After 4000 Years, China Eyes Truly Global Role<span style="background-color: white; color: #909090; font-family: proxima_nova_rgregular, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">By </span><a class="author url fn" href="https://breakingdefense.com/author/colinclark/" rel="author" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; cursor: pointer; font-family: proxima_nova_rgregular, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; letter-spacing: 1px; outline-offset: -2px; outline: 0px; text-transform: uppercase;" title="Posts by Colin Clark">COLIN CLARK</a><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #292929; font-family: proxima_nova_rgregular, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Xi Jinping</span><br />
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WASHINGTON: The president of China, seeming to cast aside the better part of four millennia of Chinese tradition, declared today that he sees “a new historic juncture in China’s development,” one that clearly calls for his country to flex its global muscles and change the rules that have guided the world since at least World War II.<br />
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Chinese artificial island in the South China Sea<br />
“China will continue its efforts to safeguard world peace, contribute to global development, and uphold international order,” the increasingly powerful Xi Jinping said at the massive Communist Party Congress, held every five years to rubber-stamp the leadership’s ascendancy and signal its intentions to both the Chinese people and the world. “China will continue to play its part as a major and responsible country, take an active part in reforming and developing the global governance system, and keep contributing Chinese wisdom and strength to global governance.”<br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #292929; font-family: proxima_nova_rgregular, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Chinese artificial island in the South China Sea</span><br />
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To me, this commitment to “reforming and developing” the rules that govern international behavior is the most intriguing. China has consistently rejected international laws and norms, which it views as tools of the western world, led by the United States. Will this mean that China will press for a wholesale rewriting of fundamental documents such as the Geneva Conventions, continue to reject the ruling of international tribunals if it doesn’t like them (remember the ruling on China’s claims in the South China Sea), and press ahead with the global bribery and corruption that marks so much of its “international development efforts” in Asia, Africa and Latin America?<br />
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Chinese weapons ranges (CSBA graphic)<br />
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China’s foreign policy will be defined by its “Chinese characteristics,” Xi said in his really long speech, three-and-a-half hours. “China will never pursue development at the expense of others’ interests, but nor will China ever give up its legitimate rights and interests,” he said. Clearly signaling that actions such as those of building fake islands in the South China Sea and challenging the Vietnamese over oil and other economic claims will not cease, the Chinese supreme leader said: “No one should expect China to swallow anything that undermines its interests.”<br />
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After its establishment of China’s first overseas military base at Djibouti, the declaration of the almost trillion dollar “Belt and Road Initiative,” and now Xi’s speech today, there seems little doubt the Chinese supreme leader wants his country to boast not regional but global influence, in stark contrast to all but a tiny sliver of its history.<br />
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Chinese J-20 fighter prototype<br />
Xi made his comments about international relations just three weeks before President Trump pays his first visit to the world’s fastest rising power. He seemed to offer a rebuke to the Trump administration’s America First approach, saying: “No country can alone address the many challenges facing humanity; no country can afford to retreat into isolation.” By contrast, he said, “China will continue its efforts to safeguard world peace, contribute to global development, and uphold international order.” So, while Trump withdraws from or tries to renegotiate international agreements, alienates allies and focuses his efforts on Pittsburgh, not Paris, Xi seems to be indicating that the Chinese will press ahead, engaging where they can in their own interests.<br />
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If you want some idea of just how gay and happy Xi believes the future to be, just read this poster which a colleague at the New Yorker says was posted at the party congress: “Life in China Is Good! Everyday Is Like a Holiday!”<br />
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Will the rest of the world enjoy the Chinese holiday or will it pine for the good old days of the Pax Americana?<br />
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Read more at: <a href="https://breakingdefense.com/2017/10/after-4000-years-china-eyes-truly-global-role/?utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm" target="_blank">Breaking Defense</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7282984519467580072.post-89656966844107144392017-10-20T12:36:00.003+08:002017-10-20T12:36:51.585+08:00The Bolsheviks in Beijing<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPBuGMoTLreNYfJlA_Xepv4UB40KfNeIae04BeHVKaRBxSJR1aPsyfocAoEZZ32IqS9UsFQDRmneoNxsV289K_ijKAWrz0PN7URCHw4nozYTx0JSZR9Q6zTNpUe06Dyqxqx21Nev1-nM0/s1600/xi+jinpingJPG.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="604" data-original-width="983" height="245" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPBuGMoTLreNYfJlA_Xepv4UB40KfNeIae04BeHVKaRBxSJR1aPsyfocAoEZZ32IqS9UsFQDRmneoNxsV289K_ijKAWrz0PN7URCHw4nozYTx0JSZR9Q6zTNpUe06Dyqxqx21Nev1-nM0/s400/xi+jinpingJPG.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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What the Chinese Communist Party Learned From Lenin<br />
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<span style="font-family: WilliamsCaslonText, Georgia, "Times New Roman", "DejaVu Serif", serif; font-size: 22.4px; font-style: italic;">By </span><a class="article-header__byline init-author-bios-processed" href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/authors/nick-frisch" style="color: #63788c; font-family: WilliamsCaslonText, Georgia, "Times New Roman", "DejaVu Serif", serif; font-size: 22.4px; font-style: italic; margin-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0.35em; text-decoration-line: none;" title="More articles by Nick Frisch">Nick Frisch</a><br />
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his week, after months of factional jockeying, <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2014-10-20/chinas-imperial-president" style="color: #0a72ce; text-decoration-line: none;">Chinese President Xi Jinping</a> and his colleagues will convene the 19th Chinese Communist Party Congress. At the conclave's end, Xi will walk into a cavernous room in the Great Hall of the People, in Beijing, flanked by China’s new rulers.</div>
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Xi and his colleagues head the bureaucracies that manage China's economy, military, <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2015-06-16/china-s-soft-power-push" style="color: #0a72ce; text-decoration-line: none;">propaganda apparatus</a>, and security organs. But on this occasion, they will appear in their most important capacity: as the members of the Politburo’s Standing Committee, China’s top decision-making body. This group will govern China until the next party congress, in 2022.</div>
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For party leaders, this week marks another half decade in power. But it will also bring a different anniversary, which Beijing will greet without fanfare. The 19th Party Congress falls on the eve of the centenary of Russia’s <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-fsu/1987-12-01/bolshevik-revolution-turns-70" style="color: #0a72ce; text-decoration-line: none;">Bolshevik Revolution</a>, the movement that led to the creation of the Soviet Union.</div>
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China's leaders are attentive students of Soviet history, and the Bolsheviks and the Soviet state they built are both a model and a cautionary tale for the Chinese Communist Party. Memories of the Soviet collapse—the trauma of toppled statues, indigent apparatchiks, and secret archives opened to public scrutiny—steel party leaders’ determination to retain power.</div>
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Read more at <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2017-10-18/bolsheviks-beijing?cid=nlc-fa_twofa-20171019" target="_blank">www.foreignaffairs.com</a></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7282984519467580072.post-51597421974316905552017-10-13T17:17:00.000+08:002017-10-13T17:17:38.809+08:00Twice the Firepower at Extended Range<h3 class="postExcerpt" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: proxima_nova_rgregular, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px; margin: 0px 0px 8px; text-rendering: optimizeLegibility;">
Raytheon’s DeepStrike™ system delivers overmatch at a fraction of the cost</h3>
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Emerging enemy threats—primarily, the use of long-range rockets against infantry and armored formations at extended ranges—put the traditional U.S. and coalition advantages on the battlefield at risk.</div>
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This threat, coupled with an aging U.S. long-range rocket inventory, could jeopardize combat forces in a future conflict. A threat of this nature hasn’t existed in such a way since the height of the Cold War.</div>
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“Near-peer” adversaries are quickly evolving into pure peer threats, equipped with weapons and capabilities that they didn’t have even five years ago.</div>
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Using advanced long-range weapons, an enemy attack on allied forces could begin with a volley of long- range rockets deep into our territory.</div>
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To overcome and defeat this threat, Raytheon is developing a long-range missile system,<a href="http://rtn.co/2xBvplo" rel="noopener nofollow" style="color: #0088cc; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"> DeepStrike</a>, for the Army’s Long-Range Precision Fires requirement. DeepStrike will allow the Army to field twice as many missiles compared to the aging ATACMS system on its existing launch vehicles.</div>
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Thin and sleek, it will fire two missiles from a single weapons pod at half the cost per missile compared to ATACMS. The new missile also flies farther, packs more punch and has a more accurate and robust guidance system than ATACMS.</div>
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“Raytheon can develop, test, and field this new capability and we are working with the Army to deliver our LRPF solution sooner than original estimates,” said J.R. Smith, Director of Raytheon Missile Systems’ Advanced Land Warfare Systems directorate. “LRPF provides soldiers on the battlefield overmatch against adversaries.”</div>
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The DeepStrike missile system is primarily meant to attack a wide range of fixed ground targets deep beyond enemy lines.</div>
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Because current missiles have limitations in range and other important LRPF requirements, a simple life-extension program cannot address long-term threats.</div>
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Along with increased firing capacity, the DeepStrike system boosts range over existing weapons by 40 percent. Earlier this year, Raytheon entered the technological maturation stage of the LRPF program. Drawing from its experience producing advanced weapons systems, Raytheon will deliver initial DeepStrike system rounds for Army evaluation within the next 24 to 30 months.</div>
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Delivering new capabilities on this timeline will enable the U.S. Army and its allies to maintain to superiority against adversaries—a concept known as <a href="http://rtn.co/2wZ67hA" rel="noopener nofollow" style="color: #0088cc; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">overmatch</a>.</div>
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Source: <a href="https://breakingdefense.com/?sponsored_content=deepstrike-system-twice-the-firepower-at-extended-range">https://breakingdefense.com/</a></div>
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