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Monday, July 1, 2013

Here’s How the Navy Plans to Shoot Down High-Tech Chinese Jets

By homing in on their heat with a new missile

The Chinese air force has at least two new stealth warplanes. And that’s a big problem for the U.S. Navy, which is still working on a radar-dodging fighter of its own.

The Navy’s quandary: how to shoot down Chinese planes that can’t be detected by radar — before the Chinese jets get close enough to launch missiles of their own.

One possible solution: to use the enemy jets’ own heat against them.

At the Paris air show on June 19, an official from U.S. munitions-maker Raytheon told reporter Bill Sweetman that the Navy had made an “urgent” request for a new, long-range, heat-seeking missile.

Raytheon vice president Harry Schulte told Sweetman that the new missile was specifically meant for dealing with “a particular threat that presents difficulties in RF,” or radio frequency (a.k.a., radar).

Sweetman asked if the threat was Chinese. “It could be,” Schulte replied.

His coyness belies the pace and potential sophistication of Chinese warplane development. The J-20, Beijing’s first radar-evading warplane type, debuted in December 2010 in blurry photos posted on the Chinese Internet. The smaller J-31 first appeared in September last year and other stealth models are rumored.

Both confirmed planes are still in testing, and little is known outside the Chinese government about their capabilities. But an analysis by Air Power Australia, an independent think tank, concluded that “no fundamental obstacles exist in the shaping design of the J-20 prototype which would preclude its development into a genuine very low observable design.”

The J-20 could enter service as early as 2018 — up to a year before the Navy’s own stealthy F-35C Joint Strike Fighter joins the fleet. Perhaps not coincidentally, the Navy wants its new infrared-guided missile to enter final testing in, you guessed it, 2018.

Paired with a new heat sensor being developed for the Navy’s current frontline jet, the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, the new missile could exploit a possible major vulnerability of the Chinese stealth fighters: the heat generated by their radars, engines and other components.

Whereas the latest American warplanes including the F-35 and older F-22 use special fuel systems that absorb some excess heat, the Chinese planes are thought to be thermally unshielded. In principle, an infrared-homing missile could lock onto a Chinese stealth jet even if a radar-guided missile can’t.

But most current U.S.-made IR missiles have a fairly short range: just 22 miles for Raytheon’s latest AIM-9X Sidewinder. A J-20 fitted withPL-12 radar-guided missiles could fire on U.S. jets at nearly twice that distance.

Schulte said an urgent new IR missile for the Navy could overlap with the 40-mile range performance of America’s AIM-120 radar missile, at least matching the Chinese PL-12.

To develop this new missile fast, Schulte said Raytheon could increase the diameter of the existing Sidewinder missile body from the current five inches to six and fit a new, more powerful motor plus other improvements.

The resulting munition could at least give Navy jets a fighting chance against the latest Chinese planes.

In Case You Forgot, America’s Got a Ton of Warplanes

Way more than Russia and China put together

An F-35 stealth fighter in testing. Lockheed Martin photo

The U.S. military possesses 14,776 warplanes. That’s nearly triple what Russia and China have, combined.

The latest figures for America’s aerial arsenal come from the Pentagon’s annual aviation plan, submitted to Congress each year in order to justify long-term spending plans.

The latest air power plan, obtained early by Colin Clark from the Website Breaking Defense, shows the air fleets of the U.S. Air Force, Navy, Marine Corps and Army holding steady for the next decade, dropping only slightly to 14,645 in 2023.

The cost to buy, maintain and upgrade these thousands of aircraft is expected to increase to more than $100 billion annually by the mid-2020s.

In contrast to America’s vast air fleet, in 2012 the Russian armed forces had 2,855 warplanes and the Chinese military 2,731, according to thelatest annual count (.pdf) by Flight, an aviation trade magazine. The world’s other leading aerial powers — including Japan, India, South Korea, Turkey, the U.K. and France — each maintained slightly more than 1,000 military aircraft, Flight revealed.

Overall, the U.S. owns 27 percent of all the world’s warplanes. And that share might actually increase in coming years despite ongoing cuts to the Pentagon budget, although to be fair the current air power plan does not take into account automatic spending reductions required by the so-called “sequestration” law.

That’s because almost all other countries in the world are cutting their aerial arsenals while also modernizing them, swapping large numbers of outdated planes for smaller numbers of new ones. Russia expects to replace its current 2,900 aircraft with no more than 1,700 new onesover the next decade.

Only the U.S. is definitely buying enough new jet fighters, cargo planes and helicopters — several hundred annually — to fully replace older models. The other exception to the smaller-but-better air power trend could be China, but that’s far from certain, as Beijing releases very little reliable information about its weapons holdings.

According to Flight, two years ago it appears China retired as many as 800 outmoded jet fighters, dropping its overall air arsenal from 3,400 to 2,600 planes. But steady production of new fighters apparently boosted Beijing’s holdings to 2,700 warplanes last year — still less than a fifth of the U.S. stock.

To be fair, there’s limited use in directly comparing raw air power inventories. A country’s exact mix of planes and helicopters, its strategy, doctrine and alliances, crew training and maintenance standards and geography are all important factors in the overall capability of a particular air arm. Just because China possesses more warplanes than, say, Japan does not mean Beijing would definitely win a war with Tokyo.

Still, even a nuanced comparison favors America’s air arsenal over anypotential rival. The latest Russian and Chinese fighters based on the classic Sukhoi Su-27 design are more powerful on average than theLockheed Martin F-16, America’s main jet fighter. But U.S. fighters are supported by the world’s largest fleet of range-extending aerial tankers — 536 in all, according to the Pentagon air power plan — plus around 600 reconnaissance, surveillance, radar-jamming and early warning planes … hundreds more than Russia or China can muster.

Most U.S. warplanes aren’t even designed to do battle with other planes. The Pentagon’s 4,457 cargo aircraft — including Army and Navy helicopters and Air Force transport planes — represent by far the most numerous category of flying machine in the American arsenal. Those aircraft are meant to support ground forces.

The huge number of U.S. cargo aircraft, outnumbering the entire warplane holdings of every other nation, is testimony to the Pentagon’s “joint” vision of warfare, where air, sea, ground and even space forces all work together. Other countries also integrate their military services, but none as closely as the U.S. does.

America’s 14,776 military aircraft also include plane types that no other country can match. The U.S. Air Force’s approximately 180 Lockheed-made F-22 stealth fighters and 20 Northrop Grumman B-2stealth bombers are the world’s only operational, radar-evading , manned warplanes. Russia and China are both testing stealth prototypes but these are years away from front-line use.

The Air Force, Navy and Army also possess hundreds of large, long-range, sometimes armed Unmanned Aerial Vehicles that can loiter for hours or days at a time searching for targets. These drones include the recently unveiled RQ-170 stealth UAV built by Lockheed plus, if the rumors are true, another secret stealth drone designed by Northrop Grumman.

China and Russia are still developing their own drones, to say nothing of stealth drones. For the foreseeable future America’s aerial arsenal will not only be much, much bigger than any other country’s — it will also be better.

China's Space Program Tries to Catch Up

The rocket carrying the Shenzhou 10 spacecraft blasts off June 11. (ChinaFotoPress/Getty Images)

Summary

China's strategic focus on space is less about national pride than about the importance of space for both the military and economic progress of the country. The Chinese space program has developed rapidly over the past decade, illustrating the importance of the program to Beijing. Shenzhou 10, a 15-day mission that began June 11 and returned to Earth the morning of June 26 marked China's fifth manned mission to space. An increasing, ongoing presence in space is essential for civilian and military communications. Satellites' functions include navigation systems such as GPS, weather data and communications relays. But the significance of space goes beyond satellites. Technological advancement and development is required for countries such as China that want to participate in future resource development in space.

Analysis

The Chinese space program officially began in 1958. Beijing launched its first earth-orbiting satellite in 1970, and while there were a series of launch failures in the 1990s, China carried out its first manned mission -- Shenzhou 5, which put a man in orbit -- in 2003. More manned missions would follow in 2005, 2008 and 2012. A major uptick in activity began in 2010, when China successfully completed 15 unmanned launches, including a lunar orbiting probe. Nineteen more launches would follow in 2011 and 2012. China is now one of only two countries -- Russia being the other -- actively putting people into space and plans to land an unmanned craft on the moon in late 2013.

The latest mission, Shenzhou 10, was launched as part of the testing process for docking capabilities with Tiangong 1, the small space module that is part of the program that will eventually culminate in China's own full-sized space station, planned for the 2020s. The mission, which reached completion June 26, also set out to advance flying abilities; demonstrate adaptability and efficiency while completing objectives on the complex; and test coordination of various systems.

Benefits of Space Exploration

Continued advancements in space-related technology will enable China to compete on the commercial and military fronts as more activity becomes dependent on space-based infrastructure. Prior to satellite communications, surveillance and detection abilities and communication were limited by line of sight and by the atmosphere, which can reflect signals and can distort and dilute their strength. Space-based infrastructure also enables more efficient communication over time.

Satellites are also essential to the coordination of a global military presence. Modern global warfare requires the acquisition of data and ability to move and utilize data in real time. This need is highly dependent on satellites, which provide the necessary sensors to "see" what is happening and the transmission capabilities to distribute this data.

However, the defense of satellites remains difficult. In addition to anti-satellite missiles, it is also possible to blind and jam satellites. Given the imbalance between the United States and the nearest competitors when it comes to space-based technologies (and reliance on these technologies), the disabling or destruction of U.S. satellites would be a bigger blow than a similar retaliatory response. But as China becomes more reliant on satellites for communications, military or otherwise, it is less likely to interfere with U.S. satellites for fear of retaliation (and vice versa), an effect similar to the nuclear standoff in the Cold War.

The Future of Space Exploration

While the current motivation for an increased space presence is satellite technology, continued progress in space is vital for future strategy as well. Resource acquisition will likely be a priority for future space exploration. The United States, Russia and Europe are all continuing efforts to expand space activity (though the United States is increasingly looking toward the private sector for further space development). Beijing cannot afford to be left behind in the ongoing pursuit to establish a greater presence in space. As the world's most populous country, China will continually have to seek out new resources in order to support and sustain itself. Space cannot be ignored as a potential, critical future source.

For example, asteroid mining may seem farfetched, but it could be a real possibility in the coming decades. NASA's strategy that seeks to find, capture and explore asteroids that may threaten Earth is currently competing for room in the budget with, among other things, exploration of Mars and lunar missions. There are also a few private asteroid-mining companies seeking to develop the necessary technology. There are likely many overlaps between the technology necessary to capture or divert an asteroid and that needed to exploit an asteroid for its resources.

Asteroids are a potential source of many substances, including nickel, iron and even water -- essential starting materials for constructing infrastructure in space or on the moon. The ability to extract resources in space could be instrumental in making space-based construction economical. Currently, lifting costs (the cost to get a material into space) are a limiting factor in the economics of space development.

While the returns on programs aimed at the future development of space are limited at the moment, the infrastructure, once built, can take several forms, including possible bases or colonies on the moon and Mars. Once space-based construction does become economically viable, only the countries that have established programs and research will able to take advantage of the new frontier. Much like the naval powers of history were able to colonize on other continents, it will be the space powers that will have the advantage on the moon or Mars.

As these pursuits move forward, it is important to remember that throughout history, research done to advance space exploration has found a way into everyday life, from something as simple as Velcro to advanced composite materials that can withstand immense heat. Research currently targeted for space also has the potential to improve earth-based technologies. Ongoing development in space has already had tangible benefits, including increased cellphone coverage (and ease of international calls), improved weather and GPS coverage and improved mapping technology.

While the path of ongoing development of space is unknown, the earlier a country enters this new space race, the better. Even so, establishing a strategic presence in space requires an ongoing and active development of space programs. It is for this reason that China, while starting later than the United States and Russia, is quickly and urgently expanding its technological capabilities in space.