SU-33
In 1998, the former Russian carrier Varyag was bought by a Chinese firm for use as a “tourist attraction.” Nobody believed that, and by 2005, she was in drydock for secret refits. Still, a carrier needs planes. Near the end of October 2006, Russia’s Kommersant newspaper revealed that Russian state-run weapon exporter Rosoboronexport was in negotiations with China to deliver SU-33s, a variant of Sukhoi’s SU-27 Flanker with forward canards, foldings wings, an arrester hook, a reinforced structure, and other modifications that help it deal with carrier operations and landings.
By 2009, Russian media were reporting a breakdown of negotiations, citing low order numbers and past pirating of Russian SU-27/30 designs. China built on that prior piracy to produce its SU-33 look-alike “J-15,” with the reported assistance of an SU-33 prototype bought from the Ukraine. It’s now 2012, and China’s myriad deceptions have served their purpose. They don’t have an active carrier force yet, but they’re very close.
A Carrier for China
The PLA Navy has made contradictory statements regarding its wish to have an operational aircraft carrier, but most expert observers believed they were working on a program to do so. Those beliefs were correct.
China’s Dalian Shipyard refitted the 65,000t ex-Soviet Navy aircraft carrier Varyag (previously Riga), which the “Chong Lot Travel Agency” acquired from the Ukraine in 1998 for $20 million. She was in in extremely poor condition, as one might expect of any ship after a decade or more of serious neglect. Indeed, she spent 16 months under commercial tow circling in the Black Sea, while negotiations proceeded with the nervous Turks to allow her to be towed through the critical Bosporus Strait. The Turks didn’t have anything against China, per se. They were just afraid that the ship’s size and condition would result in a shipping disaster. After a long trip, Varyag arrived in China in 2002, and entered drydock in 2005.
China’s assurances that the Varyag was destined to be a floating hotel were ludicrous on their face, and very soon they were sharply at variance with the ship’s observable paint job. Nobody with a gram of sense ever believed the cover story. The real question was whether the Chinese believed they could bring Varyag up to operational status, or whether they planned to just use the ship as a learning platform, in preparation for their own construction efforts later.
The carrier was commissioned in 2012 as the Liaoning, and there is every indication that China plans to make it fully operational. Weapons have been fitted, including close-in gatling guns and short-range air defense missiles.
Real operation, however, requires planes.
In October 2006, SinoDefence.com reported that China would spend $100 million to buy 2 Su-33 fighters from Komsomolsk-on-Amur Production Association for ‘trial and evaluations,’ with delivery expected in 2007-08. Reports claimed there was also an agreed option for another 12 Su-33 fighters, with the potential for the deal to grow to 48 SU-33s and $2.5 billion.
It didn’t take a genius to figure out that this was simply a ploy to rip off Russia’s design. Russia backed out of the sale, and tried to negotiate a much larger up front commitment from China.
Unfortunately for the Russians, the Chinese acquired an SU-33 prototype from the Ukraine, married it to their past experience copying SU-27/30 fighters, and created the “J-15” instead.
China landed a J-15 on the Liaoning in late 2012, opening the way to a true naval aviation force. With 2 more locally-built carriers underway, that force can be expected to grow quickly. American naval observers keep stressing the decade-long amount of time required to train and field an effective carrier force, but China has a wealth of engineering talent, and a large aviation force to draw on. Don’t be surprised if the Chinese beat American predictions by a comfortable margin.
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