First F-35 Sale To UAE Could Still Be Years Away

Steve Trimble | Aviation Week & Space Technology

During the same week as the Dubai Airshow in November 2009, Lockheed Martin celebrated the first flight of the AF-1 test aircraft for the F-35 development program, and a top air force official in the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—Brig. Gen. Ibrahim Naser Alalawi—publicly declared his “hope” that his country would procure a fifth-generation fighter “within a couple years.” A decade later, Lockheed has delivered more than 435 F-35s to eight countries, but none so far to the UAE. 

With the 2019 edition of the biannual air show ready to run from Nov. 17-21, the UAE’s search for a new stealth fighter may be set to take nearly another decade. In the last two years, the UAE has commissioned a billion-dollar upgrade program for the air force’s F-16 Block 60s and launched a service-life extension program for its Mirage 2000s. The combination gives the UAE the flexibility to defer one of the world’s largest fleet replacement programs for fighters by several years. 

“It certainly looks like the UAE is trying to skip a generation and coast on their F-16 Block 60 and Mirage 2000 force until they can get F-35s, which will likely be around 2026 or 2027,” says Richard Aboulafia, vice president of analysis for the Teal Group consultancy. That timeline assumes orders by the UAE around 2024, followed by deliveries to a U.S. training base in 2026 and transfer to the UAE around a year later, Aboulafia says. 

A UAE Mirage 2000-9, F-16 Block 60 and a U.S. Air Force F-35A fly formation over the Persian Gulf, but upgrades for the UAE fleet likely mean a long-sought F-35A acquisition could still be several years away. Credit: U.S. Air Force

It was only two years ago that the UAE’s potential F-35 order appeared more imminent. During the first year of U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, officials succeeded in reopening stalled negotiations with the Gulf Cooperation Council on several arms sales. “The Obama administration would not talk about the F-35” to countries in the Middle East, says Derek Bisaccio, a regional market analyst for Forecast International. “That seemed to change when Trump took office.” U.S. defense officials openly discussed the “ongoing,” early talks with the UAE about a potential F-35 deal during the last Dubai Airshow in 2017. 

The timing of the new sales discussions also followed a pattern of U.S. policy. The first F-35I ordered by Israel arrived at Nevatim AB in December 2016. The U.S. government generally offers Israel at least a five-year head start on new fighter technology, then allows other governments in the regions to import the aircraft, Aboulafia says. 

The F-35 may not be the only fighter on the UAE’s long-term shopping list. Alalawi displayed a picture of the F-35 as he expressed hope in a fifth-generation fighter acquisition in 2009, but the UAE is not exclusively tied to the American fighter. In 2017, the UAE government signed a memorandum of understanding with the Russian Aircraft Corp. to collaborate on the design of a lightweight, next-generation fighter. Neither side has publicly moved the relationship forward over the last two years.

“There’s been precious few details on what the concept of the aircraft would be,” Bisaccio says. “This could well prove in time for the UAE a bargaining chip in negotiations with the United States.”

The UAE has been careful to avoid reliance on a single government for weapons. The current fighter fleet is split between the U.S.-made F-16s and French-built Mirage 2000s. That policy could continue even if the UAE signs a deal in the long term for F-35s.

A line of UAE Mirage 2000-9s stand on the runway at Nellis AFB, Nevada. Along with the F-16 Block 16s, the Mirage 2000s could remain at the heart of the UAE fighter fleet for at least another decade. Credit: U.S. Air Force

“There’s still a chance the UAE Air Force is going to give a little bit to everybody,” says Michel Merluzeau, director of Aerospace Market Analysis for AirInsight. “If they acquire an F-35, I think they’d go with a micro-fleet. Maybe a wing: 30-40 aircraft. It would be a mistake to think they’d buy an equivalent number of fighters as they did with the F-16.”

The most logical alternative to the F-35 for the UAE could be the Rafale, Dassault’s successor to the UAE Mirage 2000 fleet. Block upgrades, such as the F4 and F5, will introduce teaming capabilities with unmanned combat air vehicles, along with new weapons and sensors. 

For the moment, the UAE has time to wait and consider its options. The service-life extension for the Mirage 2000 fleet provides the UAE with at least a decade to deliver a replacement. 

“When you look at the [Mirage 2000s], these are near [the] Rafale in terms of avionics and weapon systems,” Merluzeau says. “They have a good 10 years left.”

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KAI Begins Building KF-X Prototype For 2022 Flight

Bradley Perrett and Kim Minseok | Aviation Week & Space Technology

Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) has begun building the first prototype for the KF-X fighter program, following completion of the critical design review in September. Development is running on schedule, a source close to the program says.

Meanwhile, South Korea’s defense technology organization and Hanwha have flight-tested a technology-demonstration fighter radar in cooperation with Elta Systems, while proceeding in parallel with full-scale development of the sensor for the KF-X.

Rollout of the first KF-X prototype is due in June 2021 and its first flight in May 2022, the source says, giving more precise timings than those that have been published. 

Production of the first aircraft, a single-seater, is beginning with the forward fuselage. There will be four single-seat and two twin-seat prototypes. These aircraft will be built to the Block 1 standard, cleared for air-to-air missions only. The Block 2 will introduce air-to-surface capability. Although the KF-X is designed for eventual development of a stealthy version, the government has given no indication of when that may happen.

The first flight-test aircraft is following the strength-test airframe into manufacturing. KAI began building that static test structure in March.

South Korea requires 120 KF-Xs to replace Lockheed Martin F-16s. Indonesia is a junior partner in the program, with a reported requirement for 50 aircraft. 

KAI displayed this full-scale mockup of the KF-X at the Seoul show. Credit: Bradley Perrett/AW&ST

The twin-engine fighter is powered by the General Electric F414-GE-400K turbofan generating 22,000 lb. thrust. Maximum speed will be 2,200 kph (1,370 mph), according to KAI, revealing the figure for the first time since exploratory development. Payload will be 7.7 metric tons (17,000 lb.) and ferry range 2,900 km (1,800 mi.), it says.

The air force is due in 2024 to review test results and, if satisfied, advise the defense ministry to issue a production contract, says the source. Manufacturing of delivery aircraft will then go ahead while flight testing proceeds to a targeted completion in June 2026, winding up Block 1 development about 10.5 years after program launch. Then deliveries are supposed to begin in late 2026.

KAI displayed a full-scale mockup at the Seoul Aerospace and Defense Exhibition, held on Oct. 15-19. The mockup shows no changes from the preliminary design that the air force approved in July 2018.

The KF-X is initially being designed to use the MBDA Meteor long-range and Diehl IRIS-T short-range air-to-air missiles. Washington routinely withholds permission for integration of U.S. air-to-air missiles in the first few years of a foreign fighter program, so Seoul will seek approval for the work after the first flight, says a South Korean government source who is close to the program. The Raytheon AIM-120 medium-range and AIM-9 short-range weapons are presumably the desired weapons.

More than 1,000 engineers are working at KAI on the KF-X. One issue debated before program launch in late 2015 was whether KAI could find it had insufficient engineering resources to develop the aircraft, which has an empty weight of 12 metric tons. The first source says the problem has not arisen.

The radar demonstrator, mounted in Elta’s Boeing 737 testbed, was flown 10 times in Israel and six times in South Korea, says a researcher from the technology organization, the Agency for Defense Development (ADD).

The ADD is leading development of the radar. Officially, Hanwha is contracted for manufacturing, but officials close to this work say the company is also helping in development.

The radar program was committed to full-scale development before technology demonstration. The intended production radar passed its critical design review in May 2019. Development is due for completion in 2026, so it will be ready just as KF-X deliveries are due to begin.

The radar has an active, electronically scanned array (AESA). In 2014, before KF-X full-scale development began, the government’s Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute said it would use gallium-nitride semiconductors. It will have about 1,000 transmitter-receiver modules, local media say.

Building and testing the technology demonstrator is the first phase, which includes software for air targets. The second phase will produce software for ground and sea targets, Lee Bumseok, the head of the ADD division handling the project, said at a seminar ahead of the exhibition. This phase is due to be completed in October 2021. A prototype radar is due to be fitted in a KF-X prototype in 2023. 

South Korea has not previously developed a fighter radar. It has built indigenous naval and ground radars, including some with AESAs, but its experience looked so limited that foreign companies expected one of them would provide the technological foundation for the program.

Instead, the ADD was authorized to create a fully South Korean radar. Elta is supposed to play a relatively minor supporting role, but it is clearly positioned to step up its involvement should the program run into trouble.

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