Russian Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine
Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces conducted limited ground assaults across the Eastern Axis and continued routine fire along the line of contact on September 15.[39] Both Ukrainian and Russian official sources confirmed fighting in Spirne (east of Siversk) and Mayorsk (south of Bakhmut).[40] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces captured Mayorsk, though ISW cannot verify this claim.[41] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground assaults against Mayorsk, southeast of Bakhmut, and southwest of Donetsk City.[42]
Russian forces are reinforcing positions along the Eastern Axis, likely due to extensive combat losses. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are moving reserves from 3rd Army Corps volunteer battalions and remnants of units previously operating in Kharkiv Oblast to reinforce the Donetsk and Zaporizhia Oblast frontlines.[43] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that the Russian 137th Airborne Regiment (subordinate to the 106th Airborne Division) sustained significant combat losses in the Bakhmut area and cannot continue combat operations without additional unspecified measures (likely meaning reconstitution).[44]

Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)
Russian forces continued to strike Ukrainian hydraulic structures in Kryvyi Rih and other infrastructure in Ukraine on September 15. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast officials reported that Russian forces again targeted unspecified hydraulic structures in Kryvyi Rih, and Russian sources published footage of smoke claiming that Russian strikes damaged an unspecified dam on the Inhulets River on September 15.[45] Russian forces are likely continuing to strike Ukrainian dams on the Inhulets River to raise flood levels in an effort to disrupt the Ukrainian bridgehead over the river in northern Kherson Oblast and threaten Ukrainian logistics lines in the same way that Ukrainian forces are targeting Russian crossings of the Dnipro River.[46] Russian milbloggers amplified footage of large-scale explosions in the cities of Uman, Zaporizhia, and Vinnytsia, as well as in Odesa Oblast.[47] Russian forces also launched an Onyx cruise missile from a Bastion coastal missile complex and a Kh-59 missile fired from an Su-35 aircraft at an open area in Mykolaiv Oblast.[48] Social media users reported witnessing the activation of Russian air defense systems in Yevpatoria, Crimea.[49]

Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)
Russian military leadership continues to pull newly-mobilized forces from every possible source but is unlikely to be able to meaningfully increase Russian combat power with those forces. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on September 15 that the Russian government lifted restrictions on conscription for large families, suggesting that multiple sons from the same family could be forced to fight in Ukraine.[50] The Ukrainian mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, reported on September 14 that Russian forces are promoting Russian military service in occupied territories such as Melitopol.[51] Forcibly or even willingly-mobilized Ukrainian civilians without military experience who are ordered to fight their better-trained countrymen are unlikely to significantly enhance Russian combat power in Ukraine.
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on September 15 that the Russian Military Construction Complex is building a new, modern “military town” in Sernovodskoye in the Chechen Republic.[52] The town will reportedly contain over 50 facilities to accommodate Chechnya-based units.

Activity in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian objective: consolidate administrative control of occupied areas; set conditions for potential annexation into the Russian Federation or some other future political arrangement of Moscow’s choosing)
The Russian proxy Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) is likely attempting to stop its administrators from fleeing ahead of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, demonstrating the bureaucratic fragility of the DNR. The DNR’s State Defense Committee extended one-time injury payments of 3 million rubles and one-time death payments of 5 million rubles to the families of officers, civil servants, and employees of the DNR’s Ministry of Emergency Situations killed in the line of work, the first time ISW has observed DNR civil servants being promised payment in the event of their injury or death in the war.[53] The DNR is likely attempting to incentivize its employees to remain in place to prevent a collapse in local governance as Ukrainian forces advance. Russian occupation forces have struggled to staff local administrations in occupied Ukrainian territory since the invasion began due to a lack of willing Ukrainian collaborators and competent bureaucrats.
Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.
[1] https://t.me/rybar/38811; https://t.me/rybar/38790; https://t.me/rybar/38840; https://t.me/nm_dnr/9013; https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/17672; https://t.me/epoddubny/12301; https://t.me/sashakots/35673; https://t.me/sashakots/35659; https://t.me/sashakots/35666
[2] https://t.me/kommunist/9450; https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/2822
[3] https://t.me/margaritasimonyan/12050; https://ura dot news/news/1052587297
[4] https://t.me/Aksenov82/1469; https://t.me/kommunist/9459; https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/17678; https://eadaily dot com/ru/news/2022/09/15/v-krymu-tozhe-nachali-formirovat-dobrovolcheskie-batalony
[5] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-28; https://tass dot com/politics/1478839
[6] https://t.me/strelkovii/3249
[7] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-24
[8] https://theins dot ru/politika/254329
[9] https://24tv dot ua/ru/simonjan-sdelala-novoe-zajavlenie-zovet-rossijan-sobirat-dengi_n2157987
[10] https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-troops-tajik-base-redeployed-ukraine/32033791.html
[11] https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-kyrgyzstan-base-troops-redeployed/32031647.html
[12] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/world/fresh-clash-erupts-between-kyrgyz-tajik-border-guards-2022-09-14/
[13] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-13; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-13
[14] https://t.me/rybar/38811
[15] https://t.me/rybar/38811
[16] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HbJHe0hDck; https://t.me/pavlokyrylenko_donoda/4882; https://t.me/nm_dnr/9013; https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/17672; https://t.me/epoddubny/12301; https://t.me/sashakots/35673
[17] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0hCejE9MTF5ywGLZs3SfD2y2aWbL4sZqWvnYgopdJWfk8nh3tGVyXRMrjkixw7WNol; https://lenta dot ru/news/2022/09/12/krasnyy_liman/
[18] https://t.me/rybar/38840
[19] https://t.me/rybar/38790
[20] https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/5759; https://t.me/millnr/9441; https://t.me/kommunist/9443; https://t.me/kommunist/9440; https://t.me/miroshnik_r/8708; https://t.me/kommunist/9438; https://t.me/mod_russia/19863; https://t.me/millnr/9443; https://t.me/millnr/9441
[21] https://twitter.com/typicaldonetsk/status/1570345103025405952; https://twitter.com/Cosmonaut19/status/1570371173313310720
[22] https://t.me/kommunist/9458; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/64024; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/40407; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/40404; https://t.me/kommunist/9456; https://t.me/rusich_army/5169; https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/17693; https://t.me/rusich_army/5172; https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1570444332947341313; https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1570342821634387968/photo/1; https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1570262736311046145; https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1570442667095375872; https://twitter.com/Minodoro/status/1570443494350622721; https://t.me/rybar/38835; https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1570465387677884420?s=20&t=agnWKMZ7gbuTZTEv0vHUoA; https://twitter.com/TexAgg04/status/1570454700516061185?s=20&t=agnWKMZ7gbuTZTEv0vHUoA;
[23] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0hCejE9MTF5ywGLZs3SfD2y2aWbL4sZqWvnYgopdJWfk8nh3tGVyXRMrjkixw7WNol; https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=380532447618182; attacks. RUAF attacked the front and rear areas with aviation. https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=582024966937795
[24] https://www.facebook.com/sergey.khlan/posts/pfbid02VNV12o6Qi1m64GzXRm3GJ4f1Anhm8UBisfpLf3QXoHzJhT164Q44j5SPnVEMBhFPl\; https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1570397840551350275; https://t.me/hueviyherson/25949
[25] https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1570306379335827457
[26] https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=380532447618182; https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=582024966937795
[27] https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=380532447618182
[28] https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=582024966937795; https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=380532447618182
[29] https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=582024966937795
[30] https://t.me/hueviyherson/25953; https://t.me/hueviyherson/25945; https://t.me/AFUStratCom/6636
[31] https://t.me/hueviyherson/25912
[32] https://t.me/rybar/38817
[33] https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=582024966937795; https://t.me/rybar/38827
[34] https://t.me/khersonskaODA/991
[35] https://t.me/mod_russia/19863; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0hCejE9MTF5ywGLZs3SfD2y2aWbL4sZqWvnYgopdJWfk8nh3tGVyXRMrjkixw7WNol; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0hvNPTZfMszbNwzXyddGeMQZXZ8akAVKzgMUjewVmQ1EaWNZYeZs6oB5WVs3jzBNtl
[36] https://t.me/rsotmdivision/992; https://t.me/vysokygovorit/9411; https://t.me/vysokygovorit/9410; https://t.me/rsotmdivision/993 ; https://t.me/rsotmdivision/997; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/40379
[37] https://t.me/rian_ru/177844; https://t.me/miroshnik_r/8710; https://tass dot ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/15755683; https://t.me/Stremousov_Kirill/320
[38] https://t.me/grey_zone/15032
[39] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0hCejE9MTF5ywGLZs3SfD2y2aWbL4sZqWvnYgopdJWfk8nh3tGVyXRMrjkixw7WNol; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0hvNPTZfMszbNwzXyddGeMQZXZ8akAVKzgMUjewVmQ1EaWNZYeZs6oB5WVs3jzBNtl; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/5758; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/5758
[40] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0hCejE9MTF5ywGLZs3SfD2y2aWbL4sZqWvnYgopdJWfk8nh3tGVyXRMrjkixw7WNol; https://t.me/mod_russia/19863; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0hvNPTZfMszbNwzXyddGeMQZXZ8akAVKzgMUjewVmQ1EaWNZYeZs6oB5WVs3jzBNtl; https://t.me/TRO_DPR/7549; https://t.me/TRO_DPR/7548; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/40384
[41] https://t.me/TRO_DPR/7549; https://t.me/TRO_DPR/7548; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/40384
[42] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0hvNPTZfMszbNwzXyddGeMQZXZ8akAVKzgMUjewVmQ1EaWNZYeZs6oB5WVs3jzBNtl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0hCejE9MTF5ywGLZs3SfD2y2aWbL4sZqWvnYgopdJWfk8nh3tGVyXRMrjkixw7WNol
[43] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0hvNPTZfMszbNwzXyddGeMQZXZ8akAVKzgMUjewVmQ1EaWNZYeZs6oB5WVs3jzBNtl
[44] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0hvNPTZfMszbNwzXyddGeMQZXZ8akAVKzgMUjewVmQ1EaWNZYeZs6oB5WVs3jzBNtl; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/5758
[45] https://t.me/rybar/38823; https://t.me/rybar/38832; https://t.me/rybar/38825; https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/1854; https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/1853; https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/1848; https://t.me/mykola_lukashuk/1500 ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0hCejE9MTF5ywGLZs3SfD2y2aWbL4sZqWvnYgopdJWfk8nh3tGVyXRMrjkixw7WNol
[46] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-14
[47] https://t.me/rybar/38803; https://t.me/rybar/38791; https://t.me/rybar/38792
[48] https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=380532447618182; https://t.me/senkevichonline/2498
[49] https://t.me/hueviyherson/25953; https://t.me/milinfolive/90549; https://t.me/rybar/38828
[50]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0hCejE9MTF5ywGLZs3SfD2y2aWbL4sZqWvnYgopdJWfk8nh3tGVyXRMrjkixw7WNol
[51] https://t.me/ivan_fedorov_melitopol/562
[52] https://t.me/mod_russia/19867
[53] https://t.me/TRO_DPR/7553; https://t.me/dnronline/78609
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